Race 7 - TAB INTER DOMINION PACING CHAMPIONSHIP (3RD ROUND QUALIFYING HEAT 2) (GROUP 3)

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No. Horse Class Gate Speed Pattern Price
1 CANT REFUSE NZ SS $6.5
2 AUDI HARE NZ SS $34
3 CONVICTION SS $51
4 TIGER TARA NZ LE $1.3
5 MOTU METEOR NZ SSV $26
6 BAD BILLY   SS $51
7 MY ALPHA ROCK NZ V $51
8 OUR UNCLE SAM   V $21
9 MACH DORO   SS $34
10 YAYAS HOT SPOT NZ   SS $51
11 SAN CARLO   EV $5.5
 

SS=Sit Sprinter V=Versatile E=Enforcer L=Leader

OVERVIEW: There are two definitive questions requiring resolution if we hope to make some folding from this penultimate ID pacing preliminary for 2018; who will win the early war between CANT REFUSE (1) and AUDI HARE (2)? And how long will it take SAN CARLO (11) to work around and occupy the breeze from his nightmare alley? In response to the first query it appears about 70% likely that with so much depending upon holding up through the first 300m CANT REFUSE (1) will hold AUDI HARE (2) and if he does that will afford Matty Craven the privilege of handing up to TIGER TARA (4) at his earliest convenience. If TIGER TARA (4) does work onto the front as expected this race is probably over as a meaningful contest but if SAN CARLO (11) can work around to sit parked in the first circuit, before the heat really goes on, we should have a pretty sweet Money Race on our hands given CANT REFUSE (1) will be poised for a podium finish from the trail and SAN CARLO (11) should also occupy the dais if he’s anywhere near his best. Those playing wider exotics need not spread the net too much further either with OUR UNCLE SAM (8) set for an economical trip and one of few horses including MOTU METEOR (5) and AUDI HARE (2) who are worth consideration for the back end of First Fours.

Selections

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  Jason Blake
TIGER TARA (4) TIGER TARA (4)
SAN CARLO (11) CANT REFUSE (1)
CANT REFUSE (1) SAN CARLO (11)
4th OUR UNCLE SAM (8) OUR UNCLE SAM (8)

Suggested Bet (Jason): Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 1,11/ 1,11 ($30 gets 1500%)

Suggested Bet (Blake): Flexi Trifecta 4/1/11 for $20 gets 2000%

Barrier Stats

Cranbourne (Last 12 Months)
# Wins (Starts) # Wins (Starts)
1 21 (165) 8 10 (93)
2 24 (164) 9 7 (56)
3 27 (165) 10 4 (34)
4 24 (165) 11 1 (10)
5 19 (163) 12 0 (1)
6 18 (144)    
7 10 (74)    

Driver Stats

Last 12 Months @ Cranbourne (Drivers engaged this race)
Name Starts Wins 2nds 3rds S/R
Jason Lee 6 1 0 2 17%
Matthew Craven 4 1 0 0 25%
David Moran 5 1 0 0 20%
Rebecca Bartley 5 1 0 0 20%
Todd McCarthy 2 0 1 0 0%

Trainer Stats

Last 12 Months @ Cranbourne (Trainers engaged this race)
Name Starts Wins 2nds 3rds S/R
Matthew Craven 11 3 1 0 27%
David Aiken 10 2 4 0 20%
Amanda Turnbull 5 2 2 1 40%
Kerryn Manning 2 1 1 0 50%
Craig Cross 2 1 0 0 50%
Stephen O'Donoghue 5 1 0 0 20%
Kevin Pizzuto 1 0 1 0 0%

Market Fluctuations

Price change since market open (Updated: 7/12/18 1pm)
Runner Name Open Current Change
1 CANT REFUSE $8 $8.5 -0.70%
2 AUDI HARE $9 $26 -7.30%
3 CONVICTION $51 $61 -0.30%
4 TIGER TARA $1.4 $1.18 13.30%
5 MOTU METEOR $51 $101 -1.00%
6 BAD BILLY $71 $151 -0.70%
7 MY ALPHA ROCK $71 $81 -0.20%
8 OUR UNCLE SAM $21 $23 -0.40%
9 MACH DORO $14 $26 -3.30%
10 YAYAS HOT SPOT $51 $101 -1.00%
11 SAN CARLO $6 $6.5 -1.30%