THE Rising Sun would have to be one of the most anticipated races, particularly in Queensland, for some time in Australasian harness racing.
The lead-in has been enthralling, with participants and connections eager to be involved, and harness racing fans enjoying the build up and watching the pieces of the puzzle fall into place.
Now, we are within 48 hours of the inaugural running and the field assembled probably exceeds realistic expectations.
Whilst the big three in the market, and most people’s contention of KRUG, EXPENSIVE EGO and COPY THAT are undoubtedly superstars, the remainder of the field are also incredibly deserving of their spots in the $250,000 G1 feature.
Even more is at stake though for the duo of three-year-olds, with a further $100,000 bonus on the line.
Whilst we all try to figure out the most likely victor, lets break down the field’s credentials.
1: KRUG
Trainer Cran Dalgety and driver Blair Orange
Career: 23 starts, 14 wins, 7 minors. $541,603
Track: N/A
Driver: 18 starts, 12 wins.
Distance: 5 starts, 3 wins, 2 seconds.
Expected position in running: Leader. Stats from this position: 11 starts, 10 wins and a second.
Why I think he can win:
“Krug holds the big advantage of a front row draw, with gate speed an asset he possesses and a superb record when leading. After setting a track record off the fence in the Redcliffe Derby, if he sets a track record tempo here on the pegs his rivals will have to be astronomical to defeat him. He should also benefit from more time in his new surroundings and a run under his belt after his trip across.”
What worries me:
“It is always incredibly hard for three-year-olds to take on older horses, particularly in a race where many have already raced at the Grand Circuit level several times. Kowalski Analysis could somewhat bring the colt undone early also with his extreme gate speed, and should they burn in a sub-36 lead-time to the mile mark it will leave all of those involved vulnerable. Finally, there was some chatter that Krug wasn’t completely genuine in his Jewels defeat. Will he mentally cope with Expensive Ego staring him down?”
2. KASHED UP
Trainer Gemma Hewitt and Driver Brendan Barnes
Career: 21 starts, 6 wins, 9 minors. $103,888
Track: 3 starts, 2 wins.
Driver: 4 starts, 2 wins.
Distance: 2 starts, 2 thirds.
Expected position in running: Four fence.
Why I think he can win – “It’s a massive achievement for Gemma Hewitt and Kashed Up to make this race in itself off the back of some great performances in Queensland, but also through the Sydney carnival. Being a three-year-old, he is favourably drawn in two and should be able to find a good position without doing any work early on. His Redcliffe Derby third behind Krug was superb after working extremely hard early in the piece and he seems to have a real liking to the bigger circuit at Albion Park.”
What worries me – “As is the case for Krug, the three-year olds, are giving away not only age, but experience and toughness at this level of competition. Kashed Up hasn’t shown a lot of gate speed to use the good gate to advantage and he is yet to strike in a feature race, despite not being far away in several.”
3. AMAZING DREAM
Trainer Nathan Purdon, driver Mark Purdon
Career: 36 starts, 20 wins, 12 minors. $950,910
Track: 2 starts, 1 win, 1 second.
Driver: 11 starts, 6 wins.
Distance: 7 starts, 5 wins, 2 minors.
Expected position in running: One out, one back.
Why she can win:
“Amazing Dream was the top filly of her year through her juvenile campaigns before making a seamless transition to open class racing against the boys – something that many mares never achieve. She added her name to the Auckland Cup honour roll in its most recent edition, being listed alongside the likes of Terror To Love, Monkey King, Elsu and Christian Cullen. Her versatility makes her competitive in any scenario unfolding and she has a lethal combination of young gun trainer Nathan Purdon and his genius father Mark Purdon as driver in her corner. She will also relish the genuine tempo ensured here and the middle-distance trip looks ideal.”
What worries me:
“She has never shown excellence off the arm and that can sometimes spell disaster in this level of contest, particularly in Australia. Sometimes she appears to disappoint in races that she should have won, but amazingly its often against her own gender where she is the class competitor. When it comes to recent racing, she has not been seen under race conditions for over a month and has been defeated in two recent Albion Park trials.”
4. Kowalski Analysis
Trainer Matthew Craven, driver Sofia Arvidsson
Career: 22 starts, 5 wins, 11 minors. $87,650
Track: N/A
Driver: 18 starts, 4 victories
Distance: 10 starts, 3 wins and 5 minors
Expected position in running: Leader’s back. Stats from this position: 13 starts, 1 win and 8 minors.
Why he can win:
“Kowalski Analysis’s most valuable asset is without doubt his gate speed and the Victorian raider is clearly one of the quickest horses off the gate in Australasia. What makes it even more useful, is the fact that he can settle after using that early burst and therefore sit off strong tempos in feature races as he did for his Chariots Of Fire placing. Despite not racing over the middle-distance trip in his breakout campaign earlier this year, his statistics show that he is more then capable of handling the extra trip. Finally, despite not having a great deal of experience at this level, Sofia Arvidsson has an amazing rapport with this horse, and knows him like the back of her hand.”
What worries me:
“Any horse heading into a race of this nature first up for four months is concerning, with rock hard fitness for many of his rivals an obvious perceived advantage. Add to the fact that he will be required to reach his maximum lung capacity in the early stages of this race and, despite his trainers’ certainty that it won’t be an issue, it is in the back of my mind. If he doesn’t find the lead early whilst expending a lot of energy, I think his chances are dashed thereafter.”
5. BUNDORAN
Trainer and driver Amanda Turnbull
Career: 27 starts, 10 wins, 6 seconds. $120,788
Track: N/A
Driver: 13 starts, 7 wins.
Distance: 5 starts, 3 wins, 1 second.
Expected position in running: one out, three back.
Why he can win: “Bundoran has been a revelation since arriving from New Zealand, roaring his way through the grades in the ultra-strong Menangle metropolitan region. Whilst his initial form showed his competitiveness up on pace, he has been remarkable driven cold subsequently. After giving King Of Swing a real scare coming from last two back he has clocked 52 closing halves at his last two efforts wide on the last turn.”
What worries me: “The gate on paper looks sticky with plenty of speed to his inside, and although he has shown gate speed in the past, I can’t be sure he has enough to find himself handy. Furthermore, if he retreats to be driven dead cold, it is so difficult to come from back and wide in this grade and he will rely on the right track into the contest.”
6. ILIKEMEBETTOR (EMG)
7. SEND IT
Trainer and driver Brad Hewitt
Career: 38 starts, 9 wins, 14 minors. $178,362
Track: N/A
Driver: 33 starts, 9 wins
Distance: 12 starts, 2 wins, 7 minors.
Expected position in running: one out four back.
Why he can win: “Despite his biggest success to date in the G1 TAB Regional Championships Super final coming his way when leading, Send It’s form when saved up for one run at his rivals is superb. His performance for 4th behind Wolf Stride in the Riverina Championships earlier this year was fantastic, and the sectionals backed that up. He is no-one trick pony though, and his tough parked run in the Metropolitan Regional Final for second was ultra-brave. He will relish that brutal pressure in this race.”
What worries me – “It is pretty simple for Send It – the barrier draw is horrific. With a lack of gate speed in his arsenal, his only option is to retreat, and my map has him much closer to last than first.”
8. BLACKSADANCE
Trainer Chantal Turpin and driver Pete McMullen
Career: 45 starts, 11 wins, 17 minors. $103,481
Track: 43 starts, 11 wins, 15 minors.
Driver: 36 starts, 10 wins.
Distance: 15 starts, 3 wins, 7 minors.
Expected position in running: three back on the fence.
Why he can win: “Blacksadance knows this circuit better than any other horse in the contest and has the advantage of not leaving his comfort zone and regular routine in preparation. Whilst the majority of his victories have come racing on-pace, he has shown that his staying prowess can also be shown following a solid tempo. He has drawn a position for an economical fence trip throughout, and he pushed race favourite Expensive Ego to less than two metres just last week.”
What worries me: “He has raced in plenty of feature-race contests in Queensland, but there has always been one or two better than him, most often Governor Jujon, who isn’t here through injury, and his stablemate Will The Wizard, who wasn’t given a start.”
9. EXPENSIVE EGO
Trainer Belinda McCarthy and driver Luke McCarthy
Career: 21 starts, 16 wins, 3 seconds. $581,792
Track: 5 starts, 5 wins.
Driver: 12 starts, 10 victories.
Distance: 2 starts, 2 wins.
Expected position in running: parked outside the leader. Stats from this position: 10 starts, 8 wins.
Why he can win: “Expensive Ego is the best four-year-old in Australia on what we have seen so far this season and there would be very few to argue with you otherwise. His brutal bullying performance in the Chariots Of Fire was breathtaking and the fact that he could back up a week later and run second behind King Of Swing in the Miracle Mile from that same position cemented his excellence. His effort last week was so gutsy, parking outside the leaders at a kamikaze pace, and his enormous heart pushed him across the line first. The will to win that he possesses is a wonderful attribute at this level, and his ability to take luck out of this equation is vital. He can also stay out of any early pace burns this week from the gate.”
What worries me: “Drawing the second line in any race must be a disadvantage, no matter the circumstances. It takes away any early tactical advantage and you are at the discretion of the front-line runner tactics, particularly the horse you are following. If the early pressure that is expected doesn’t live up to that anticipation, and Ego finds himself in an early traffic jam, some of his rivals have the ball in their court.”
10. SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS
Trainer Belinda McCarthy and driver Leonard Cain
Career: 22 starts, 11 wins, 5 minors. $96,092
Track: 2 starts, 2 wins.
Driver: N/A
Distance: 10 starts, 5 wins, 3 minors.
Expected position in running: three wide with a trail.
Why can he win: “High speed is a wonderful element in the top echelon, and that’s exactly what Spirit Of St Louis possesses. Making a good impression in his three local runs working through the grades, we will get to see him driven stone cold this weekend off what we continue to expect to be an extreme tempo. His statistics over the middle-distance trip are also very promising, which is so often the case with these high-speed types who are allowed to settle into a rhythm over further. With few local drivers competing in this inaugural contest, Leonard Cain has done the majority of his driving at Albion Park and will be out to prove his ability at his biggest opportunity.”
What worries me: “We don’t have a strong line on this newcomer at this top-level and have to assume that he can absorb the pressure that comes with this grade. He also can’t make his own luck, which leaves him at the mercy of others, and I struggle to find a suitable track into the race aside from Copy That.”
11. CRUNCH TIME
Trainer Rickie Alchin and driver Nathan Dawson
Career: 47 starts, 13 wins, 13 minors. $161,686
Track: 7 starts, 2 wins, 2 minors.
Driver: 4 starts, 3 wins, 1 second.
Distance: 9 starts, 1 win, 2 minors.
Expected position in running – One out three back.
Why can he win: “By my count, this is Crunch Time’s ninth Group 1 appearance and he has been a horse that has raced at the top-level right throughout his career. Even though his asset of gate speed has been taken away from the draw, when driven quietly in the past he has performed to a high level and conserving energy at this level is integral. Nathan Dawson has already struck up a great relationship with the quirky pacer and is aggressive enough to move through a field should the opportunities present themselves late in the piece.”
What worries me: “The fact that he has been in so many elite level races, but his best finishing position is fourth, tells me that he is just a rung below the absolute elite of his age group. Only one win from nine attempts at the middle distance also suggests that his reputation as a brutal miler is probably warranted.”
12. MACH DA VINCI
Trainer Peter Hanson and driver Shane Graham
Career: 43 starts, 10 wins, 12 minors. $138,131
Track: N/A.
Driver: N/A.
Distance: 6 starts, 3 wins, 1 second.
Expected position in running: five back on the fence.
Why he can win: "Mach Da Vinci’s best is up to warranting a start in this race. His ability to follow speed and peel off ridiculous sectionals has held him in good stead for Menangle racing the last few seasons. He has been forced to take on the strong open-class ranks for the last six months and that foundation assists a horse’s ability to sustain speed for a long time and chase hard. Speed horses can often appreciate smaller circuits to harness their pace and his form on smaller tracks like Bankstown and Penrith demonstrates that Albion Park should prove no issue.”
What worries me: “He has only won one race this year, and there is a question mark over his current form and whether he is at his very best. He also had two runs last week alone and will have had the trip up this week, which has to be a slight concern when it comes to his sharpness. The draw is also a killer for his pattern.”
13. COPY THAT
Trainer Ray Green and driver Anthony Butt
Career: 38 starts, 20 wins, 9 placings. $482,897
Track: 1 start, 1 win
Driver: 1 start, 1 win
Distance: 19 starts, 11 wins, 5 minors
Expected position in running: first horse three wide.
Why he can win: “Copy That’s arrival in Queensland was breathtaking last week, producing a powerful finishing burst to dismantle a strong field of open-class pacers at the mile. Whilst many regarded the four-year-old as a superior leader, last week’s performance showed that simply was not the case, and his tough Auckland Cup third from parked proved even further his versatility. His Wondai’s Mate victory was also painless going forward as he was largely unextended and had an easy trip in transit. It would have done his confidence no harm either. Whilst this is an extremely hot race, Copy That has competed at Grand Circuit level for the last 12 months, so this is really a drop back in grade to his own age group. Finally, with Anthony Butt aboard in a feature race, he will have no excuses and don’t be a surprised to see a rabbit pulled out of the hat”.
What worries me: “I really felt for his connections when the barrier number of 13 was drawn on Monday evening – it is truly horrendous. Not only does he give basically everything else a head start, but he will also have plenty of traffic to manoeuvre through from there on out. With Expensive Ego nearly certain to make an early move, there appears to be an absence of any horse to give Copy That a dream track into proceedings. Is he capable of sitting three wide solo the last lap and winning this race – I am not sure any horse in Australasia is."
SELECTIONS:
With all of that in mind, my selections in the Rising Sun are (1) Krug, (9) Expensive Ego, (3) Amazing Dream and (13) Copy That.
Good luck to connections and those placing a wager tomorrow night, and don’t forget to tune into the extended coverage all meeting long on Sky Racing Active!
Brittany Graham is a regular host on Sky Racing and the Sky Racing Active app, plus In The Gig with Ben Way and Gareth Hall every Tuesday night on Sky Racing 2 from 6pm.
The opinions expressed in The Forum are those of the author and may not be attributed to or represent policies of Harness Racing Victoria, which is the state authority and owner of thetrots.com.au.