WHO should be Victoria Cup favourite?
With the next of Australasia’s open class majors being less than two months away, my mind turned to trying to work out some sort of pecking order for the October 8 race.
Surprisingly, markets have Self Assured at the top betting. I say surprising because there is virtually NO chance Mark Purdon will bring him across with the focus being on the NZ Cup a month later in Christchurch. We are more likely to Jean Feiss-owned star come to Victoria for the Inter Dominion in late November.
Spirit Of St Louis inherited the tag as Australia’s best pacer when stablemate King Of Swing was retired, but he didn’t cement it during the Queensland winter features. He was good, but not great. Then again, his seconds in the Hunter Cup and Miracle Mile (behind King Of Swing) early in the year were elite.
Bondi Lockdown is an interesting one. We were all blown-away by his second in the Chariots Of Fire. Horses can’t do what he did that night. But we’ve hardly seen him since. Can he recapture that form by October 8? He is a phenomenal talent.
Lochinvar Art is the most interesting of the lot. He’s the best pacer we’ve seen in possibly the past decade. Yes, better than King Of Swing when both were at their top, in my mind. He had that cameo comeback last summer but was only 70 per cent of the horse he was before injury.
With two trials under his belt, the team say he’s got that sharpness back and we’re going to see the Lochinvar Art who won Victoria and Hunter Cups at his prime. If so, he’s clearly the one to beat, but we need to see him back at the races to get a clearer picture.
WATCH: Lochinvar Art thrills in eye-catching Shepparton trial
It’s fantastic to have NZ’s second-best or, some may argue, best pacer Copy That heading across, possibly as soon as early September, to chase the Victoria Cup. Like Lochinvar Art (but to a lesser extent), he’s had his issues lately. But he is a serious talent, proven at the top level and is sure to be a major player.
What about the emergence of former Victorian Majestic Cruiser under the guidance of the sport’s “IT” trainer, Jason Grimson? He beat NZ’s best, headed by Self Assured, in the Group 1 Messenger in Auckland in April. Just to prove it was no fluke, he beat many of Australia’s best in the Group 1 Blacks A Fake last month.
Better Eclipse has achieved so much in just 30 starts and looms as one the top home state prospects for Jess Tubbs and Greg Sugars. He surprised most by upsetting Bondi Lockdown in the Chariots Of Fire and then added the Group 1 Sunshine Sprint in Queensland last month. And he’s only going to get better.
Expensive Ego is the biggest dilemma of Australian harness racing. Such a beast of a talent at his best, but we haven’t seen since last year’s Inter Dominion. Team McCarthy went back to basics, gave him a long break and have specifically set him for the Victoria Cup and then Inter Dominion.
The best Expensive Ego would be as hard to beat as any.
I love Honolua Bay for his sheer speed, but that’s unlikely to be enough to win him a Victoria Cup. So, it’s been important to see him develop and show versatility. There’s a touch of Chandon or Riverlea Jack about the point-to-point speed of this fella.
READ: Bay blasts way into ID22 with seventh-straight triumph
Just for the record, Ladies In Red would be right in this discussion if she was headed towards the Cup, but she won’t tackle it. Connections are keeping her to racing her own sex for the rest of the year. She will race on Victoria Cup night, but in the Make Mine Cullen for mares.
Back to the Victoria Cup and a couple of others not to discount are Grimson’s second-stringer I Cast No Shadow, the evergreen Triple Eight and talented but sometimes hard-to-catch Kiwi pacer South Coast Arden, who is firming by the day to make the trip across.
Even Ladies In Red’s stablemate, Like A Wildfire, has to be considered. His Queensland raid didn’t go as hoped, but his roar through the ranks has been exciting and he has the home ground advantage this time.
In summary, we can bet pre-post on the Victoria Cup now, so what would my early plays be?
If you shop around, I’d be having something small on Expensive Ego and Honolua Bay at $10 or better.
But the beauty of this Cup is the star power, number of X-factor horses and how it will continue to evolve almost weekly from now until race time.
Bring it on!
The opinions expressed in The Forum are those of the author and may not be attributed to or represent policies of Harness Racing Victoria, which is the state authority and owner of thetrots.com.au.