Self Assured looks set to take his road less travelled to a place he knows very well in the NZ$100,000 Dawson Harford Messenger at Alexandra Park tonight.
The glamour pacer has been backed off the board to win tonight’s Group 1 and cap a remarkable month in which he has already won the inaugural running of The Race at Cambridge then finished a booming third to stablemate Spankem in the Taylor Mile last Friday.
In both those races he started from barrier eight over the sprint trips whereas tonight he gets the perfect barrier two over the 2700m mobile, which could well guarantee him an eventual run on the marker pegs, a position he has rarely been in his career, on his way to the winner’s circle, a place he visits often.
Self Assured has had 40 career starts for 24 wins, 15 placings and only one time out of the money, when he galloped away from a standing start.
While Self Assured has fair gate speed with so much of his racing having been in preferential draw mobiles, standing starts or simply through bad luck he has remarkably only been on the marker pegs the majority of a race seven times in his career.
The result of him getting those sort of economical trips? Six wins and a half-head second to stablemate Ultimate Sniper in 2019 in what was a fresh-up run, with the winner going on to clean sweep the Inter Dominion a few months later.
In modern-day harness racing, with peak speeds held for so much longer, being on the marker pegs covering less ground is a huge advantage, so for Self Assured to have carved out his record having raced in the running line in 33 of his 40 starts is incredible.
When he has been on the marker pegs in the major races he wins big Cups. Namely the New Zealand, Auckland and Easter Cups, all races he won when able to lead or trail.
Aiding his chances of securing a similar trip tonight is not only barrier two and being catch driven by our greatest ever reinsman in Tony Herlihy but the likelihood many of those capable of beating him off the gate would almost certainly be happy to take a trail.
Two of the fastest beginners in the Messenger are his stablemates Mach Dan and Spankem and they would definitely take a trail on Self Assured should that opportunity present itself.
Kango (barrier three) may beat them all to the front but it would surprise if he tried to lead all the way in a field of this quality, especially after he won last start at Addington after taking a trail.
A Gs White Socks didn’t show enough gate speed last week to suggest he would wrest control tonight and when he last tried to park Self Assured out at Addington this time last year it didn’t end well for him.
That brings us to Self Assured’s arch rival South Coast Arden, who cops his third wide draw in 15 starts as his autumn horribilis continues and his trainer-driver Brent Mangos is realistic about his options.
“I don’t see us going forward and getting the lead because there are at least three inside us as quick off the gate as my horse,” says Mangos.
“So I will be patient early and get into the race later and I can see them sorting themselves out early and then Tony (Herlihy, driving Self Assured) working to the front.”
That all adds up to the punters who have already backed Self Assured in from $1.70 to $1.45 feeling good about their investment going into the Messenger, but with many now reluctant to touch the smaller odds, the question remains how to make money out of the race?
If you ever think the winner is going to lead in a pacing race the best other betting options are those likely to trail or, over staying trips, be on the markers so logic suggests Spankem, Kango and even Mach Dan appeal as place or top four bets, with the latter luckless in the Taylor Mile last Friday.
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Driver John Dunn admits the gap between Sundees Son and his two young gun rivals is closing.
But whether it has closed enough to see him beaten in tonight’s $100,000 Peter Breckon Memorial National Trot at Alexandra Park is the question.
Nobody doubts Sundees Son is the best trotter in Australasia, especially over longer trips, but he has been beaten in his last two Alexandra Park starts by first Bolt For Brilliance and then last week Muscle Mountain when they have settled in front of him.
It continues a pattern over the last 12 months, with the young pretenders able to outsprint Sundees Son in 55-second last 800m splits when they lead but being run off their hooves when he leads and gets up a head of steam over longer distances.
Tonight’s 2700m mobile looks ideal for Sundees Son and Dunn is adamant he will be a fitter horse than when he chased Muscle Mountain in vain last Friday over a mile, but Muscle Mountain in particular looks to be getting stronger and more troublesome to overpower when he can dictate terms.
He has the gate speed to lead again tonight as, while Temporale will cross to the lead if asked to, over 2700m he would seem certain to hand up and Dunn concedes Muscle Mountain should end up in front.
“Over 2700m I don’t think we will burn out early and I don’t think we could hold the lead if we do,” says Dunn.
“But it is only a small field and I think they will settle in single file. If they do that we will be able to get away from the markers when we want and if we have to sit parked outside Muscle Mountain for the last lap I will make sure we are running hard.
“Both Muscle Mountain and Bolt For Brilliance are very good horses but I think over 2700m we can outstay them. The gap is definitely closing between us and them but I think the distance really helps.”
With Muscle Mountain and eventually Sundees Son likely to be on the front end of the field controlling the tempo that could leave Bolt For Brilliance doing the chasing on his home track, with his best case scenario probably securing the one-one on Sundees Son’s back and hoping the two favourites go to war.
The opinions expressed in The Forum are those of the author and may not be attributed to or represent policies of Harness Racing Victoria, which is the state authority and owner of thetrots.com.au.