Jason Bonnington presents the key facts he thinks you need to know before tonight’s nine-race card at Victorian harness racing headquarters.
Race 1
Unless BET ON THE TIGER (3) crosses and leads, the two runners most likely to assume the front are POST GAME (2) or MAGIC MIKE (6), and both runners have compelling stats when racing at the head of affairs. Surprisingly, POST GAME (2) has led and held just once in 27 starts but did salute on that occasion while MAGIC MIKE (6) has been in front six times on Aussie soil for 3 wins and 3 placings.
Race 2
While tonight’s 3YO is dominated in markets by Kiwi invader THE REAL SHERLOCK (6), in reality, there are three serious winning hopes. The other key players are LOUIE LOU I (4) and FINAL COLLECT (5). As things stand LOUIE LOU I (4) is $4 and FINAL COLLECT (5) is $13 though their H2H record tells us that in six prior meetings they currently sit at 3-apiece so FINAL COLLECT (5) appears underrated.
Race 3
QUEEN ELIDA (6) has been blessed with once-in-a-generation gifts but given her racing pattern, she remains most vulnerable in races like tonight’s with restricted numbers and limited winning hopes. Her last defeat materialised in an 8-horse field where the leader pinched a march. Tonight’s likely leader is MUFASA METRO (4) who has won 6 of 9 in front; two of those successes coming at G2 level.
Race 4
On class and ratings STEEL SCREENS (8) appeals as one of the major players in tonight’s six furlong contest. Critically, however, in four attempts over 1200m to date, he’s never occupied the dais. In contrast, MISTER CHEESE (2), MAJOR MAJOR (3) and DIAMOND ECLIPSE (6) have all saluted in these extreme short-course events and TERRY (7) was placed at his only exposure to this brand of race.
Race 5
Most Harness Racing zealots will have heard this stat before yet its stunning, nonetheless. From the 13 times star mare TOUGH TILLY (5) has led at race level, 11 wins have resulted, with her only defeats coming at the hands of modern-day freak Ladies In Red. Critically TOUGH TILLY (5) draws to find the front tonight though don’t be shocked if TREACHERY (7) at very least tests her into the first turn.
Race 6
While gate one is typically considered a major advantage, for some horses, like EBONYS AVENGER (1) this isn’t always true. In 9 runs from polemarking draws, EBONYS AVENGER (1) has saluted just once and also led on only one occasion despite possessing above average early speed. This event also harbours an incredibly fast front line where every runner has early pace should they choose to use it.
Race 7
Despite opening at a longer price than stablemate and brilliant beginner OUTLAW MAN (2), Kate Gath has opted to partner TANGO TARA (9) who draws to follow her stablemate out and potentially find the front despite his second line draw. Its also worth noting that red-figure favourite ACT NOW (10) has completed 17 of his 19 victories in front and saluted just 4 of 12 times off second line draws.
Race 8
Figure form would suggest that one-time G1 placegetter LA CAPTAIN (3) is racing below his best, but, on closer inspection he’s not far off the mark. On his night LA CAPTAIN (3) is one of Victoria’s fastest starters and his record when leading – 6 wins from 8 attempts – is awesome, particularly compared with his overall record of 11 wins from 58 starts. It won’t be easy but he may be overlooked.
Race 9
Unbeaten 2YO SMOKEN ACE (7) seems all but over-the-line in tonight’s get-out stakes. Sure, he draws poorly, but negates that handicap with brilliant early pace. With most playing exotics here, it’s well worth considering that while CITY ROCKSTAR (1) relented to SKY CITY (6) at their last meeting, she possesses enough pace to trail the fave and – for silver medal honours – that’s the place to be.
