Bronte Nieuwenburg has done the form for Ballarat on Thursday.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: PROHIBITED GRACE (4) had the same barrier last start when winning at Geelong. She was able to find the fence, sit behind the leader and was too strong late, although it was a slowly run race. She could find the fence again here, but this race is likely to be run at a stronger tempo. That was her first win since taking out the Breeders Crown as a two-year-old, and she now brings winning confidence. KAMARAN (7) has been in career-best form since joining the Peter Manning stable. Three starts back he was outstanding at Ararat, racing in the breeze over the longer trip and gapping his rivals, and he backed that up with another strong win at Stawell. He then missed the start badly at Hamilton but still managed to finish third. He’s a talented horse, with the query being the return to mobile conditions. QUEEN KIZEN (10), the little sister to champion mare Queen Elida, is third up here and was the SA Trotters Oaks winner last season. JAYS ALL THAT (6) is also third up this preparation. He won well first up at Cranbourne but has had excuses at his past two runs after being checked or breaking. The barrier is awkward, but he is better than his recent numerical form suggests.
SELECTIONS: PROHIBITED GRACE (4), KAMARAN (7), QUEEN KIZEN (10), JAYS ALL THAT (6)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: BETTOR MAN (7) is first up here after 92 days for trainer Brad Angove. At the end of his last campaign he was racing well and making his own luck. He finished third in a recent Maryborough trial, with fitness the main query. ALDEBARAN MIGUEL (10) looked promising on debut when leading and finishing fourth despite carrying a flat tyre. He had a prior second in a Bendigo trial, and this run should tell us more. NEDZA THRILLER (5) is a 67-start maiden looking to break through. He has been stuck back on the fence at his last few starts, but his sectional times have been okay. EL UNO (9) is first up after 593 days. He is a seven-year-old having just his seventh start and comes from a family of handy winners. He has had a few trials, but fitness is again the query. Also respect for ISLAND RUBEE (4), who ran well last start when first up for Rory Coverdale.
BACK: BETTOR MAN (7) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: BETTOR MAN (7), ALDEBARAN MIGUEL (10), NEDZA THRILLER (5), EL UNO (9)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: JUST INCREDIBLE (6) is third up here. Last start at Cranbourne he was in a tough field and got stuck on the fence but still hit the line well. He finished fourth in a Vicbred Super Series heat last year. He has the best sectional times but will need luck from the barrier. CALYPSO MISTRESS (3) hit the line well into third last start behind smart runners. She may map awkwardly with speed inside her but is racing well. CALEDONIAN RANGER (2) has great gate speed and with Jordan Leedham driving should be able to find the front. He maps well and over the short trip should be right in the finish. LORD VERDE (8) is in career-best form since moving to the Michael Laugher stable. On times he is the best swooper in this race, but he will need luck from the barrier.
SELECTIONS: JUST INCREDIBLE (6), CALYPSO MISTRESS (3), CALEDONIAN RANGER (2), LORD VERDE (8)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: SCAR (3) was impressive last start. He raced wide early, into the breeze, and still hit the line well for second, beaten three metres, after covering an extra 24 metres in the run. He looks well placed here. APRIL SUN (10) is a smart trotter but can get his manners wrong. If he trots throughout, he’s a winning chance, even from the awkward barrier. ROMANTIC NINA (7) is a smart trotting mare when she does everything right, although she has been prone to galloping, especially in recent runs. Last start she did everything right and hit the line well. If she can settle throughout again, she’s a winning chance. PARIS JAMILLA (8) got back into the winners’ circle impressively last start and appears to have found her best form again following a change of scenery. She has a strong turn of foot.
BACK: SCAR (3) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: SCAR (3), APRIL SUN (10), ROMANTIC NINA (7), PARIS JAMILLA (8)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: Trainer Jodi Quinlan looks to have two key chances here in the Concession Drivers race with LADY IN LINE (9) and EYE SEE AMOUR (10). LADY IN LINE (9) is second up and her first-up performance was a bit better than it looks on paper as she got caught well back. She will be fitter for that run and has the barrier to follow through into a good position. Based on her sectional times last preparation, she is one of the better performed horses in this field. EYE SEE AMOUR (10) has been quite unlucky recently and is racing better than his numerical form suggests. When he hasn’t been stuck on the fence, he’s been covering significant extra ground. In an even field, if he has some luck, he’s a genuine chance. QUICK DECISION (3) looks to map well from barrier three and performed well in the Stawell Pleasant Creek series recently. BOND GIRL (4) had the 1-1 run last start and finished strongly to win. If she gets a similar trip here, she is a winning chance. This is an even race, and BETTORPATCHMEUP (8) and CALEDONIAN TERRA (5) also look like chances with the right run.
SELECTIONS: LADY IN LINE (9), EYE SEE AMOUR (10), QUICK DECISION (3), BOND GIRL (4)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: There are a few lightly raced, progressive horses still learning their craft heading into this event. On exposed form, SNACK LOVER (5) has the best sectional times, despite having four starts and being well beaten. He ran a personal time of 1:53.9 on debut when third at Melton in October last year. He’s been a bit unlucky since and has raced some top horses. FIVE CENT (8) produced a career-best run at Maryborough on Monday, racing three wide for most of the trip and still finishing second. If he can back up from the short turnaround and replicate that performance, he is a strong chance. MISSMALACHITE (2) is a 40-start maiden but has placed in three of her last five starts and maps well from barrier two. GOODLOOKINGDEAL (6) was third on debut when leading and being pressured last week at Melton. He will improve from that run, although the barrier is awkward here.
BACK: SNACK LOVER (5) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: SNACK LOVER (5), FIVE CENT (8), MISSMALACHITE (2), GOODLOOKINGDEAL (6)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: The lightly raced SCOOTER LOU (6) is third up here and should be reaching peak fitness. Last start he did it tough at Melton against a good field and got tired late. SHAZZA LOVE (5) is racing well, having finished in the top four in her last eight starts. She hit the line strongly last start at Melton and continues to perform well, although the barrier is awkward. WOW YOU CAN DANCE (2) looks to map well from barrier two and is likely to find the fence, which should suit over this trip. SENNA STORM (4) was driven perfectly last start, finding the fence and getting a good run behind the leader to finish second. He has good gate speed but is a horse who often relies on luck. Also respecting BREATHE EASY (8), who rarely runs a poor race, especially since joining the Basil Dooley stable. He is the only horse on the back row, so has options and looks well placed.
SELECTIONS: SCOOTER LOU (6), SHAZZA LOVE (5), WOW YOU CAN DANCE (2), SENNA STORM (4)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: HUXHAM CHUBB (7) has been racing well at his last few starts. He again draws awkwardly, so will likely need to make his own luck or produce a long run with cover. He has the best sectional times in this field. PRETTY BASIC (5) was driven for luck last start and was able to sprint hard late to win, defeating Huxham Chubb. He has a sticky barrier here. LAZENBY (3) broke through for his maiden two starts ago and followed it up with another win. He is in career-best form, has the confidence, and should have enough gate speed to find a good position early. BLUE MIKI (4) has had tough runs recently but has been performing well. His numerical form doesn’t read strongly, but his efforts have been better than they appear, and he can go well here.
BACK: HUXHAM CHUBB (7) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: HUXHAM CHUBB (7), PRETTY BASIC (5), LAZENBY (3), BLUE MIKI (4)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R2 #7 BETTOR MAN – 3 units (win)
R4 #3 SCAR – 2 units (win)
R6 #5 SNACK LOVER – 2.5 units (win)
R8 #7 HUXHAM CHUBB – 2.5 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
4,6,7,10/7,10/2,3,6,8/3,7,8,10
QUADDIE
3,4,5,8,9,10/5,8/2,5,6/3,4,5,7
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
Chances are you’re about to lose. For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
