Ryan Phelan has your tips, strategy and Quaddie for Ararat harness action Sunday.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: ROCKIN GEMMA (10) has her first start for the new stable and looks very well placed against her own sex, particularly with the concession claim. She punches through behind a very quick beginner, so she should map within striking distance. She showed some ability last preparation after coming to Victoria and, in her one trial for the Matt Horsnell camp, trialled very well against a couple of smart ones at Terang recently in a good tune-up for this.
GOLD IN PARIS (6) partnered with James Herbertson for the first time and duly saluted last time out with gusto, beating home HUXHAM CHUBB (7), who was also very good as runner-up. That horse has since franked the form by winning at Charlton last Monday, and that pair appear the testing material, albeit from awkward draws. EASTBRO KAZ (11) is another benefiting from a concession in easier grade. She’s been racing against much better-quality opposition and can sweep home well with the right cover. QUICK CRUNCH (1) and MEGAWATTS (4) have hit a purple patch of form and are in the mix, while JILLIBY KYMY LOU (2) and TORQUE INTHEUSA (3) have the best speed and cut at each other last time, which could ensure a genuine tempo.
BACK: ROCKIN GEMMA (10) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ROCKIN GEMMA (10), GOLD IN PARIS (6), HUXHAM CHUBB (7), EASTBRO KAZ (11)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: Very tricky affair, with the majority of these not winning out of turn. The experience of driver Michael Bellman is a major factor here from the positive draw, allowing him to press forward and look for the lead with MISSMALACHITE (3). She hasn’t had much luck with barrier draws and has been forced to work harder than she’d like, whereas the map and opposition here look favourable. Her last victory came back in April when she was able to find the top.
ZWICK (4) can slide across with her and potentially map handy. He finds a better draw than he’s been used to and will also find this grade more to his liking. He’s also a winner at this track. YANKEE RAIN (7) stays under notice after switching to the Tom Rundle stable and has trialled okay leading into this, although the draw is a little tricky. BLISSFULL LILLY (5) was a winner when leading four starts back, so the map is important for her, while the draw for ICONMOTOR (2) helps him. They both have minor claims.
SELECTIONS: MISSMALACHITE (3), ZWICK (4), YANKEE RAIN (7), ICONMOTOR (2)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: Standing-start conditions for the trotters, where you can expect the likely leader after 600m to come from ALLAWART BOB (2), BROWN EYED KATE (3) and ITGETSBETTER (4), despite all being off 10 metres. However, those off the bigger handicaps have the better form.
BOUTIKA (5) is one of those and will find this much more suitable than her last start at Melton. More compelling is the fact that the last time she started under standing-start conditions was at this track back in April, where she began well off the 20m handicap and beat her rivals easily. She looks well placed.
JAKARTA (7) has regained some better form under standing-start conditions and won well off 30m back in July. Her starts since have been sound, so she must be considered. BARLINNE (6) ran second in that July win, and her past couple have looked tougher than this. Poor manners from the opposition bring the leaders ALLAWART BOB (2), BROWN EYED KATE (3) and ITGETSBETTER (4) into calculations, while backmarker SONAMI JOH (9) also ranks as a minor chance.
BACK: BOUTIKA (5) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: BOUTIKA (5), JAKARTA (7), ITGETSBETTER (4), BARLINNE (6)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: The inside four horses all like to show gate speed here, so the battle for the lead is very interesting, with three stablemates and DIRECT COMMAND (2) sandwiched in between them.
With that in mind, I’m looking away from the leading division and expect sharp improvement from BACKBEACH PETER (7), who had nothing go right in his two recent runs in SA when failing as a short-priced favourite. I’m happy to overlook those and assess his prior performances, which were terrific. Most notable was a runner-up performance to Rocknroll Willow, who has since franked that form.
GRINNING BEACH BOY (4) led from a better draw last time when second. He’s going to need things to work out, but Herbertson sticking with him is a major plus. DIRECT COMMAND (2) could be open to sharp improvement after coming up with his best draw in some time, and the last time he was able to find the top he was a winner back in June. FIVE CENT (5) gets another tricky draw but is racing honestly, as is PRECIOUS BELLE (6), who’s a get-back type. Both have minor claims.
BACK: BACKBEACH PETER (7) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: BACKBEACH PETER (7), GRINNING BEACH BOY (4), DIRECT COMMAND (2), PRECIOUS BELLE (6)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: Tricky affair with 2yos taking on 3yos and a few without exposed form. BAY LA VILLE (8) is a 3yo filly first-up without a trial, but what she displayed last preparation deserves respect. She won on debut, where she settled back in the field and found the line strongly, beating a reasonable field. At her next assignment in the Vicbred Super Series she underperformed and was thrown in the paddock. Whilst the fitness may not be there, the ability is.
COCO MILLER (1) is a 2yo filly who has trialled very well leading into a race of this calibre. She’s stepped out three times and has won each of those trials, displaying good manners, while in her past two trials she was able to record a reasonable mile rate. The barrier draw means she maps well, and being on the peg line over the sprint trip is an advantage. RAVISHING ROXY (6) will appreciate getting back to age-assessed racing after two runs up in class this preparation, the most recent of which saw her run third. She’s mixed her gate speed, leading on occasions and beginning roughly in others, but she’s in the mix. SWEET LADY LOU (7) was able to win at her sixth start as a 2yo and found the line well from back and wide. She’s had the benefit of one run this preparation and hit the line okay in what was a stronger field than she meets here. The draw is a little tricky, however.
SELECTIONS: BAY LA VILLE (8), COCO MILLER (1), RAVISHING ROXY (6), SWEET LADY LOU (7)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: JILLIBY ECLIPSE (8) started a very short-priced favourite on debut and did everything wrong, galloping twice in the run when she was about to obtain a good position. She’s had two trials since then and showed marked improvement in her manners. She will no doubt be short odds again, courtesy of the power of the Lee stable alone, but tread warily given her manners.
SHEER ME (5) comes here with different form, having her first start for the new stable after arriving from NSW. She’s a well-bred mare coming in without a trial but keep her safe and watch the betting. SPORTY ROCKS (3) has run some decent races, placing twice, and should get a decent map in a race that doesn’t appear overly strong. JADES REASON (2) is a 2yo filly taking on the older horses, and she wasn’t too bad last time out at Globe Derby, sitting parked for the final lap against a reasonable field and battling to the line okay. The soft draw helps.
SELECTIONS: JILLIBY ECLIPSE (8), SHEER ME (5), SPORTY ROCKS (3), JADES REASON (2)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: IMALLATTITUDE (5) has been racing in terrific form lately and finds another suitable race to be a strong winning hope. Sectionally, he was terrific last start, narrowly missed with a flat tyre the start prior and was a winner three back when Luke Sutherland was aboard, who claims again here. Whilst he will be at the mercy of the right tempo in a small field, the way he’s been running on suggests he will be hard to hold out.
PRESIDENTIALCHANGE (1) is a lightning-quick beginner and won’t be crossed from the pole. It depends on what tactics Jackie Barker wants to adopt from there, but either way he presents as the hardest to run down. IAMAWINGATE (2) was disappointing at Shepparton, but he always seems to come back into his best form when racing at this grade, and reuniting with Herbertson adds appeal, as he was the last driver to win on him. JUST LIKE NUGGET (4) finally broke through for his maiden win when given a perfect run; however, this map looks a little sticky if he’s to get a similar trip.
BACK: IMALLATTITUDE (5) – 3.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: IMALLATTITUDE (5), PRESIDENTIALCHANGE (1), IAMAWINGATE (2), JUST LIKE NUGGET (4)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: Problematic way to finish, with most of these clashing in a race at Ballarat two runs back, so there’s a form line there, but subsequently they’ve all performed poorly at their next outing.
Hence why I want to look away from that race, and it leaves me with DOCTOR GO JOH (7), who comes into the race with the best national rating and will find this company much more suitable. He’s had to sit parked in fast times his past couple, times which this opposition is unlikely to be able to match. In his last win in June, he defeated a horse who won easily earlier in the week.
SIR CANDY CLOUD (5) did burn early trying to find the lead last time out, so there are reasons to forgive that performance. Bellman jumps aboard for the first time and could assist in a change of form. ALLTHEWAYTOROYALTY (2) was good at his first run for the stable but then performed poorly at Mildura when he led and over raced as favourite. He could improve if he brings his best. DI ANGELO (4) hasn’t had the best passage in running his past couple and is familiar with this company, so he’s in the mix.
SELECTIONS: DOCTOR GO JOH (7), SIR CANDY CLOUD (5), ALLTHEWAYTOROYALTY (2), DI ANGELO (4)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R1 #10 ROCKIN GEMMA – 2.5 units (win)
R3 #5 BOUTIKA – 2 units (win)
R4 #7 BACKBEACH PETER – 2 units (win)
R7 #5 IMALLATTITUDE – 3.5 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
6,10/2,3,4,5,7/4,5,7/2,4,6,7
QUADDIE
1,6,7,8/2,3,5,8/1,2,5/2,4,5,7
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licenced bookmaker.
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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