Ryan Phelan has done the form for the 8-race card from Echuca.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: CHINSKI (4) is having his first start at Echuca but based on his racing pattern, should love the circuit. He finds a draw to use his gate speed and find the top over the short distance, which is a huge advantage on the tighter track with the shorter straight. He was a winner two starts back, where he unsuccessfully challenged for the lead before coming again to win. His mobile record is strong and, if the map works out, he’ll take some catching.
JILLIBY TOPGUN (9) has plenty of upside based on what he’s been able to produce this season, winning five from 16, and the concession claim of Tasmyn Potter brings him well in on the ratings scale. His last performance at this track saw him do work and be beaten a distance, so whilst he’s better suited on the bigger tracks, he’s in the mix. MAJESTIC MONARCH (10) is also well graded with the claim, but he is coming off a very disappointing run at Shepparton last week, where he was well supported, led and dropped out. His form prior was good, so if you can overlook last time, he’s a genuine chance. WHATS THE TEA (3) is having his first try here and gets the services of ace reinsman James Herbertson. He needs to be better than last start, but this is easier. KALARNEY PRINCE (2) also has minor claims, as his tactical speed should see him map in a favourable position.
BACK: CHINSKI (4) – 1.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: CHINSKI (4), JILLIBY TOPGUN (9), MAJESTIC MONARCH (10), WHATS THE TEA (3)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: ARRAPS (5) is a speedy beginner and looks well served from the draw to press forward aggressively and look for the top end against this opposition. His track and distance profile is also strong for a race of this calibre, and his past two runs leading into this have been very good. The work he had to do last time and the sectionals he was able to produce suggest he can be too strong for these.
WHERES WOOD WOOD (11) caught many by surprise last week when he was able to lead and dash away, running good time at Shepparton. In fairness, he has been consistent overall this season, and although his set-up is completely different this time, his record at this track commands respect. TOMMYS LOOKOUT (6) can be a little hard to catch, but his performance three starts back to win at Shepparton was good enough to be competitive here. It’s hard to know how he maps and his last two runs have been poor, but he’s worth keeping safe. STELLAR QUEEN (1) and FOUR STARZZZ RUBY (3) are the other speed influences off the front row, and the right map gives them claims, particularly at the minor end.
SELECTIONS: ARRAPS (5), WHERES WOOD WOOD (11), TOMMYS LOOKOUT (6), STELLAR QUEEN (1)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: SOHO PLAYGIRL (4) was terrific last week in winning at her first run for the new stable, where she let down with a powerful finishing burst. Her career profile suggests her best performances come when she can draw to race handy, and the map may be in her favour here. She has a good strike rate at the track and, if she can back up what she did last week, will be hard to hold out.
STARZINHEREYES (3) is a quick beginner suited to this track and distance. Her past two runs back in more suitable grade have been very good, and those efforts have come with Luke Dunne in the sulky, who sticks with her here. ELIZAJANE (6) is flying, winning her past couple when able to lead and running good time in both. BULLETPROOF KID (5) has been a model of consistency this campaign and got a deserved win when able to lead at Cranbourne two starts back. This map is a little sticky, but he’s certainly in the mix.
SELECTIONS: SOHO PLAYGIRL (4), STARZINHEREYES (3), ELIZAJANE (6), BULLETPROOF KID (5)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: ALTO CORRAGIO (3) has been runner-up in both career starts, both over 2190m at Shepparton. On debut he showed gate speed, led and was beaten only a half-head. Last week he came from the second row and was narrowly beaten again. He has a strong trainer/driver combination and, with a positive map over a similar middle distance against an easier field, it heavily favours him breaking through.
MAJOR FRIEND (1) is the obvious danger and gets the map advantage. She’s placed six times from nine starts, including four of her past five, and has already shown the ability to trail the top pick and get her chance. She came through the same race last week but didn’t have much luck. Those two clearly stand out. SLOWBURN (7) is a 2yo from the Riverina whose two performances to date boast a solid SP profile, and those runs have been okay. Likely to be three pegs means minor consideration is more realistic. JUST MY LUCK (4) needs to lift on what he’s displayed, but there have been glimpses of ability to suggest he can improve against a moderate line-up.
BACK: ALTO CORRAGIO (3) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ALTO CORRAGIO (3), MAJOR FRIEND (1), SLOWBURN (7), JUST MY LUCK (4)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: FERRIGNO (2) hasn’t won since October last year, but there’s a strong case to be made for him breaking that run of outs. He’s been racing up in grade for quite a while and, furthermore, hasn’t had the best set-up to put his best foot forward, which is when he’s able to lead. He’s having his first look at Echuca, but his tactical speed can see him get back to his best.
TARA VICTORY (8) has been performing well for her in-form stable, and when she found a suitable grade two starts back, she won easily. She should map quite well trailing out the top pick, so although she’s going to have to earn it from off the speed, she’s a strong chance. HELLOVATIME (6) is another in great form and nearly went all the way last week. His record this campaign is excellent, and he has gone close in two tries at this track; he will just need luck from the draw. DRESSED IN GOLD (4) is yet to win this preparation but is showing signs that a win isn’t far away. This is quality opposition, though, while MICHEN ROY (5) had to work hard last week and dropped out, but he’s honest and won’t be far away.
BACK: FERRIGNO (2) – 1.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: FERRIGNO (2), TARA VICTORY (8), HELLOVATIME (6), DRESSED IN GOLD (4)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: A tricky map to work out here, but if REGAL ROCK (5) can get across, he will be hard to run down. His two runs this campaign have been solid in harder company, where he found the top and battled on well. This is significantly easier and, if he gets to the peg line, he’s capable of running faster times than the opposition.
DOT BALL (7) has the challenge of overcoming the back row, but if there’s a strong battle for the lead, he will be the beneficiary. He’s won two of his past four, drops in grade and is a winner at this track. ALPHA CRUCIS (3) could be the one open to sharp improvement on his numerical form, finding a suitable draw and set-up. He’s a winner at this track and, with the right map, he’ll be in the finish. Then at the minor end, SWISS LIGHTNING (1) can map softly, while KRAKEY (4) goes okay at this level but is fresh-up here and the map is sticky.
SELECTIONS: REGAL ROCK (5), DOT BALL (7), ALPHA CRUCIS (3), KRAKEY (4)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: BIG RAIN (1) is a 14-start maiden, but she has placed eight times and this, by far, looks to be her most suitable assignment. She has natural gate speed, which has seen her lead at her past three starts, and here at Echuca she looks well suited with the shorter straight to cling on. She won’t strike a more winnable race.
MI BOW (3) is a 35-start maiden and has placed 17 times. She’s getting closer and has a strong SP profile for a race of this calibre, while the Herbertson factor is a plus. SPESHAL (7) is also racing well without winning, and her failures at her past two have been a result of galloping out. If she can get away and map behind the leader, she’s a chance. GREAT HORIZON (2) doesn’t threaten to win, but she is reliable in her gait, so if others get it wrong, she can be the last one standing.
BACK: BIG RAIN (1) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: BIG RAIN (1), MI BOW (3), SPESHAL (7), GREAT HORIZON (2)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: FINAL BOW (3) has 36 career wins and, crucially, an exceptional Echuca record of 14 starts for five wins. She won consecutive races at Shepparton before the Maryborough failure and bounced back with a second last week, where the leader was off and gone by the time she made her run. She can map more positively from this draw and, if she finds the top, will be hard to run down.
MAMMALS REASON (5) is a model of consistency with two wins and three placings from her past five. The concern is how she maps from the draw, but her form is good enough to be a winning hope. HIGHVIEW HAMMER (1) is a quick beginner and normally likes to take cover, so gets the ideal map from barrier 1. His last win in June came when he was able to sit leader’s back. SPORTS WRACK (6) keeps threatening to bounce back to form as he continues to drop in grade. The draw here hurts, but he’s one who is ready to win in this grade when things work out.
BACK: FINAL BOW (3) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: FINAL BOW (3), MAMMALS REASON (5), HIGHVIEW HAMMER (1), SPORTS WRACK (6)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R1 #4 CHINSKI – 1.5 units (win)
R4 #3 ALTO CORRAGIO – 3 units (win)
R5 #2 FERRIGNO – 1.5 units (win)
R7 #1 BIG RAIN – 2 units (win)
R8 #3 FINAL BOW – 2 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
2,3,4,9,10/1,3,5,6,11/3,4,5,6/1,4
QUADDIE
2,4,6,8/1,3,4,5,7/1,3/1,3,5
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licenced bookmaker.
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