Ryan Phelan has done the form for the 8-races at Shepparton.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: MISTER JIMARINGLE (1) ticks a few boxes to bounce back to winning form here. He strikes well over this distance and has a decent strike rate at this track, but his winning chances improve dramatically when he’s able to race on speed and dictate. Herbertson will no doubt use the draw to his advantage, with the map not working out last time when he was untested to the line. He finds a suitable grade compared with what he’s been opposed to and looks hard to beat.
ROM BARO (10) is a 3yo who impressed last week at this track, winning in good time after leading all the way, dropping back out of the Vicbred Series. He goes to the back row now but deserves respect again. MAMMALS REASON (11) has a strong Shepparton profile, winning 4 from 8 here this season, all for the new stable. She goes to the back row, which makes things tougher, but her form is hard to ignore. IM DUSTEE (9) should be fitter now third up, and he hasn’t had much go his way in his two runs back, forced to sit outside the speed last time and settling too far back prior. Expect improvement. There are a few chances at the minor end, with TA KALCHE (8) likely to get a soft run and ANIMADO (3), MADAM REACTOR (4), MAJOR ORION (5) and GINGER ELLA (6) all racing well; they just have tricky draws to overcome.
BACK: MISTER JIMARINGLE (1) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: MISTER JIMARINGLE (1), ROM BARO (10), MAMMALS REASON (11), IM DUSTEE (9)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: PARINI (4) finds a winnable race to break his maiden after showing some promise in his five career starts, where often he hasn’t found an ideal set-up. He had nothing go his way first up, checked twice in running and crowded when making a run in the straight. He hasn’t shown gate speed to date, but this looks to be his most favourable opportunity to look for a forward spot and get every chance to break through.
MAJOR FRIEND (11) has been racing well from better draws but goes from the pole to the outside of the back row. His form is better than most, so even though he’ll need luck, he warrants consideration. SON OF A BROAD (9) is first up from a break off a solid trial and, last preparation for the new stable, showed marked improvement, narrowly missing out twice when an odds-on favourite. Even though he will come on in fitness, the trailing draw and middle distance are in his favour. At the minor end, JUST MY LUCK (2) can improve as he’s likely to get a good trip, and it’s hard to know what to make of 2yo filly CARTIMANDUA (6), who was okay on debut but was quite poor when stepping up in grade since, while her trial wasn’t ideal. SLOWBURN (3) would also come into minor calculations with any scratchings.
BACK: PARINI (4) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: PARINI (4), MAJOR FRIEND (11), SON OF A BROAD (9), JUST MY LUCK (2)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: LUVERBOY (2) looks a really good value play, finally coming up with a good draw and looking to get a perfect map, likely behind the speed. Nearly half of his wins have come at this track, and when forced to be map-negative last week, he hit the line well when the race was over. The last time he got this likely map was in July when he won comfortably at Echuca from behind the speed. He’s a nice play on both totes.
ELLEEGANT LANE (8) has really hit form this past month, winning 2 from 3, and at Melton no less, where she has run good time. Those wins have coincided with Liam Older, who seems to get on well with her, and although she’ll need luck from the draw, she deserves respect. TRYX VIXEN (4) drops well back in class from the Vicbred, but to be fair she didn’t make much of that last start when failing to beat one home, albeit in very quick time. If she can show better speed and find the front or race on speed, she can improve sharply; she must be kept safe. CRESCO THREEPEAT (9) is a tough type who races well at this track and grade. He beat home Ellegant Lane back in August. His chances depend on tempo. THERESHEWAS (5) and last-start winner YELLA (6) will need luck from the draw, but they should be considered for exotic plays.
BACK: LUVERBOY (2) – 0.5 units (win) 1.5 units (place)
SELECTIONS: LUVERBOY (2), ELLEEGANT LANE (8), TRYX VIXEN (4), CRESCO THREEPEAT (9)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: ALCATRAZ GIRL (4) doesn’t bring strong numerical form, but her chances improve from what looks to be a nice map for her to roll forward and look for the top. She was a winner at this track and distance back in June when she found the lead and ran good time. Everything points to a form spike here based on those indicators, and she may represent value.
WHERES WOOD WOOD (8) is just about racing in career-best form as a 9yo, winning 5 of her 15 races this season and placing another 8 times from 26 starts. She’s an exponent of the ratings system and often runs her best races when she drops back to this grade, looking well placed with the concessions, including that of Tasmyn Potter, who enjoys a good strike rate on her. KRAKEY (9) hasn’t won this season but is still racing okay. She was forced to do it tough outside the speed last week and looks to be an improver in this type of race. OLLY ODD POTTS (2) can be a little hard to catch, but she tends to run her best races in this class when she doesn’t do much work early and can come with one run. She must be kept safe. JOEYS HANGOVER (5) was a winner here last week when given every possible hope from a more favourable draw. Winning form is good form, however, so despite needing luck, he deserves to be considered again.
BACK: ALCATRAZ GIRL (4) – 1 unit (win)
SELECTIONS: ALCATRAZ GIRL (4), WHERES WOOD WOOD (8), KRAKEY (9), OLLY ODD POTTS (2)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: AMADA VILLMA (5) has been very well supported in her past two runs and was narrowly beaten last time after being shuffled back the start prior. She looks to get her chance to lead again over the short trip here, and although she’s a 20-start maiden, with Herbertson sticking she gets a great chance to break through.
EAGLEYE (9) has mixed her form in three runs for the new stable, but it’s a stable worth respecting, particularly at this level. Her run two back suggested she could go on with it, so if she brings that effort, she’s in the mix. BETTOR DOO (3) was fair here last week after having every chance, but that was a harder race than he faces here. This is only his 2nd run for the new stable, so he is open to further improvement. BERYLS BOOTS (6) has found form over the past month, placing at his past five runs. He’ll be dependent on the right cover, but he’s worth consideration.
BACK: AMADA VILLMA (5) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: AMADA VILLMA (5), EAGLEYE (9), BETTOR DOO (3), BERYLS BOOTS (6)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: Concession drivers race with a couple of different form lines. This is the lowest-confidence race of the night; it will come down to luck in running. Suggest field in the Quaddie.
TOORAM DANNY (4) is one of those who brings a different lead-in, being fresh up off a decent trial at Echuca. He can be map-positive from this draw, and his only victory came when he led all the way over a similar trip. He has upside, whereas much of the opposition is exposed as far as form is concerned.
OUR MYSTERY BET (6) comes out of a tougher race here last week after bringing some consistent form without winning. He sat parked and dropped out here last week, and on face value he was disappointing. He will likely sit outside the speed again, but on previous form he demands respect. ANGELIC ATTITUDE (7) is a tricky one to line up, racing in southern NSW with mixed results. The stable deserves respect, so she’s in the mix. LORIMERMAJOR (1) hasn’t won for a while but gets an economical run from the draw here. He got dragged back out of it last week, so he may be open to improvement.
SELECTIONS: TOORAM DANNY (4), OUR MYSTERY BET (6), ANGELIC ATTITUDE (7), LORIMERMAJOR (1)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: This is another concession drivers’ race, this time for the trotters.
BROOKLYNGOTCOURAGE (4) brings what few others do in this race, and that’s current winning form. His victory two back was quite good when he was able to find the front and beat a similar-quality field to what he meets here. The stable thought enough of him to have a shot at the Vicbred last month, and the fact Riley Pace was a winner on him under normal conditions, against his junior rivals this time, appeals.
PATNWILL (1) is up in grade, but he is a quick beginner suited by the mile. He was able to lead all the way from an inside draw at Melton five runs back, and a repeat of that will see him hard to catch. They appear to be the main winning hopes on form. COURAGES LAW (6) hasn’t been able to put it together this season but did show ability as a juvenile and can feature if he recaptures that. Stablemate AFRICAN GALA (7) went close to winning two back and did things wrong last time, but he appears to be racing a little better, while MONTANA MUSCLE (5) is the veteran of the field and has won three times this season, which holds her in good stead.
BACK: BROOKLYNGOTCOURAGE (4) – 1 unit (win)
SELECTIONS: BROOKLYNGOTCOURAGE (4), PATNWILL (1), MONTANA MUSCLE (5), AFRICAN GALA (7)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: DEMBE (3) was a very good winner here last week in good time when he was able to map well and let down with a sprint to win easily. The driver/map combination is particularly pleasing here, with a proactive map position likely over the middle trip. He’s the one to beat again.
CAPTAIN MOONLIGHT (5) is a big market watch here, being first up from NZ without a trial, and his NZ form is sound enough. Where he particularly stays under notice is with the astute trainer/driver combination at this level. RONNIE THE HAMMER (6) was first up here last week and performed well, considering the depth of the race and having to try to lead them up with fitness to come. He will be open to solid improvement. INTERPRETATION (4) ran 5th in the race that Dembe won last week but was drawn outside the back row and now draws to map closer. His form in Qld prior was okay, and he won’t be far away.
SELECTIONS: DEMBE (3), CAPTAIN MOONLIGHT (5), RONNIE THE HAMMER (6), INTERPRETATION (4)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R1 #1 MISTER JIMARINGLE – 2 units (win)
R2 #4 PARINI – 2 units (win)
R3 #2 LUVERBOY – 0.5 units (win) 1.5 units (place)
R4 #4 ALCATRAZ GIRL – 1 unit (win)
R5 #5 AMADA VILLMA – 2 units (win)
R7 #4 BROOKLYNGOTCOURAGE – 1 unit (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
1,10,11/4,9,11/2,4,8,9/2,4,8,9
QUADDIE
5,9/1,2,3,4,5,6,7/1,4,5/3,5,6
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer-generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licensed bookmaker.
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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