Bronte Nieuwenburg has done the form for tonight at Kilmore.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: DISTANT SUN (1) has been racing super without winning recently. She has been flashing home well late and gets a change of luck here with the better barrier. PARIS KAY (7) got it wrong with her manners last start, so we can forget that run. Her start prior was a second in the Swan Hill Trotters Cup, where she ran well chasing down the getaway winner. She is one of the classier horses in this race, but the barrier is tricky. LITTLE MISS MORGAN (9) is a smart mare who won well last start at Maryborough, flashing home from last. She beat DISTANT SUN (1) on that occasion, however, the barrier suits DISTANT SUN (1) here. ZARSKI (4) has a massive motor and a lot of ability, but his quirks bring risk. He galloped last start and can do things wrong. If he’s on his best behaviour, he’s one of, if not the most talented horses in this field. Also respecting WALLIS (2), who let down nicely for third last start. With some luck, he can be prominent here.
BACK: DISTANT SUN (1) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: DISTANT SUN (1), PARIS KAY (7), LITTLE MISS MORGAN (9), ZARSKI (4)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: ICANMOTOR (9) is a 20-time winner and finds a suitable race here, particularly with a maiden also in the field. He’s been out of the winner’s circle since finding a purple patch of form late last year. He sustained a three-wide run last start and still battled on well for fifth. He’s racing okay and barrier nine suits. FAKE CULLECTION (10) needs to overcome a wide back-row barrier, but she is racing okay. She was narrowly beaten at Kilmore last start after flashing home brilliantly. IMAGUNNARESTNGO (7) was in a race restricted to NR up to 45 last start and drops back to NR up to 38 here. It was an interesting run, as he seemed to be struggling to keep up with the horses in front of him at the bell, but then picked up the bit again late and let down okay. He’s not the fastest beginner, so he will likely drift back to the rear of the field and need some luck, but it’s a suitable race. OKTOLOVE (6) is one for the exotics if he gets some luck. If JOEYS HANGOVER (10), the emergency, gains a start, he’s a winning chance and would have likely been my top selection.
SELECTIONS: ICANMOTOR (9), FAKE CULLECTION (10), IMAGUNNARESTNGO (7), OKTOLOVE (6)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: TED BEAR (9) won impressively two starts ago at Melton, flashing around the field to win. Last start, he tired after leading. If he’s saved for one run here, he will be flashing home late. LORIMERMAJOR (2) was second behind the smart mare Harley Lane recently at Kilmore. He had barrier two on that occasion, settled midfield and flashed home impressively once he found clear running. He’s an experienced horse who can run well here with some luck. ANIMADO (1) was third last start after leading and tiring in the late stages. He can place again here from the barrier. CATIES SON (3) is third-up here and should be back to near peak fitness. Forget last start, when he hit the barrier arm and galloped, but still let down well late after catching the field. He is a smart horse at his best.
BACK: TED BEAR (9) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: TED BEAR (9), LORIMERMAJOR (2), ANIMADO (1), CATIES SON (3)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: This is an interesting race with many first starters. CATCH A BUTTERFLY (9) has all the ticks on paper to make her a nice filly. She is a full sister to Catch A Wave and a half-sister to Yambukian. She is trained by Emma Stewart and her trial form has been good, albeit in slow time. Looking forward to following this filly. ALWAYS BE VICKI (6) is a New Zealand-bred filly for Craig Demmler having her first career start. She has looked really good, winning her two Melton trials. In both trials, she was strong to the line but also under a grip, looking like she has a lot to offer. LIL SPARROW (3) is having her first career start for Kristy Butler. She won her recent trial at Shepparton and we will learn more about her here. FLYING JACKIE (2) has one career start. She got shuffled back at Shepparton and hit the line well for second. If she had been on the fence, her final quarter would have been 27.8. If she finds a good race map here, she could be flashing home again. Also respecting ASHANTE MAJOR (8), who is out of superstar broodmare For Dear Life, making him a half-brother to Pelosi. He’s bred to be a nice horse.
SELECTIONS: CATCH A BUTTERFLY (9), ALWAYS BE VICKI (6), LIL SPARROW (3), FLYING JACKIE (2)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: BUSLIN BRODY (9) has had some mixed form recently when it comes to his manners. He has been getting it wrong and galloping early. However, when he has been trotting throughout, he appears to be near career-best form. Hoping he can settle here from barrier nine, do everything right and be the one crossing the line first. I CHOOSE YOU (6) flashed home well from last to finish fourth last start at Maryborough. His class was on show recently against the top level of the three-year-old trotters when he finished second behind Munny The Munster in a Vicbred Super Series heat. He can get things wrong with his manners. RASTAMON (2) has good gate speed and will likely find the fence here. He performs best when he finds the fence and is racing well. PASS THE SALT (5) is a nice horse at his best. He was shuffled back last start at Maryborough but still let down well late.
BACK: BUSLIN BRODY (9) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: BUSLIN BRODY (9), I CHOOSE YOU (6), RASTAMON (2), PASS THE SALT (5)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: RAPTA (4) has a lot of ability when he trots throughout. Four starts ago, he ran an eye-catching second in a Need For Speed heat against a top-quality field. Since then, he has recorded another good placing and galloped twice. If he trots, he is the one to beat here. MOONSHINE LOUIE (2) has been racing well. He hasn’t been out of the top four in eight starts. He can make his own luck and should be able to map well here from barrier two. KYVALLEY REEVA (7) can get it wrong with her manners, but when she trots, she trots impressively. She galloped last start, but her two starts prior saw her trot throughout and win very well. If she trots, she can win. ALDEBARAN JAZMINE (5) has a strong last 800 metres on the clock at her best. If she gets a good trip, she can be flashing home late.
BACK: RAPTA (4) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: RAPTA (4), MOONSHINE LOUIE (2), KYVALLEY REEVA (7), ALDEBARAN JAZMINE (5)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: KIMCHI (5) is a reliable performer who is in good form. He let down nicely from midfield to win two starts ago at Kilmore. Last start, he was three-wide with cover for the last lap and sprinted well late for second. He has another sticky barrier, but he’s versatile enough to make his own luck. OUR MYSTERY BET (1) is a consistent performer who will get a good fence trip here. TASTE IT (7) sustained a good three-wide trip to win well last start. She is racing well, but her barrier makes it tricky here. HOME AND DRY (2) was unlucky last start, held up before running home nicely once he found clear air. He has a better barrier here and gets a chance for a change of luck.
BACK: KIMCHI (5) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: KIMCHI (5), OUR MYSTERY BET (1), TASTE IT (7), HOME AND DRY (2)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: WHIRILY MAURZ (1) is in career-best form, winning her last two starts very well. She has the best sectional times on paper and is full of confidence. She can win again. The biggest risk to her chances is her gate speed. The horses drawn to her outside, especially HIGHVIEW HAMMER (2), have better-known gate speed than her. She is a massive chance if she can hold a forward position. HIGHVIEW HAMMER (2) does look likely to find the fence here and, from there, can take advantage of a good trip. KNOW THE SCORE (3), at his best, is a winning chance in this field. There are a few question marks around some of his recent runs, but if he can map well here, he may find a chance to get back into form. THE HEATS ON LEXY (4) could map as the horse flashing home late if she gets some luck. ABRAHAM (8) is first up in 52 days and is having his first look at the Kilmore track.
SELECTIONS: WHIRILY MAURZ (1), HIGHVIEW HAMMER (2), KNOW THE SCORE (3), THE HEATS ON LEXY (4)
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: FROSTY DROP (1) is a smart filly with great gate speed and general high speed. If she can stay close to the front, take advantage of her fence barrier and avoid having to work too hard, she’s a big winning chance here. BLACKINDEED (3) is fourth-up here and should be close to peak race fitness. She has finished third at her last two starts and let down well last start. If she can map well, she will be in the finish. RAKAROMPA (4) is a lightly raced mare who is second-up here. She let down nicely for second last start and I am expecting an improved performance with added fitness. TRYX VIXEN (5) is a smart filly who rarely runs a bad race, but she has a sticky barrier here.
SELECTIONS: FROSTY DROP (1), BLACKINDEED (3), RAKAROMPA (4), TRYX VIXEN (5)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R1 #1 DISTANT SUN – 2 units (win)
R3 #9 TED BEAR – 2 units (win)
R5 #9 BUSLIN BRODY – 2 units (win)
R6 #4 RAPTA – 2 units (win)
R7 #5 KIMCHI – 2 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
1,4,7,9/6,7,9,11/1,2,3,9/6,9
QUADDIE
2,6,9/2,4,5,7/1,2,5,7/1,2,3
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licenced bookmaker.
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