Race 4 - DOWNBYTHESEASIDE VICTORIA DERBY (1ST HEAT)

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No. Horse Class Gate Speed Pattern Price
1 HURRICANE HARLEY 2 LSS $1.4
2 OUR MILLIONAIRE 1 LV $12
3 OUR UNCLE JIM 1 SS $34
4 A FAIR OL DANCE NZ 1 V $26
5 HARDHITTER 2 LV $5.5
6 MESSERATI   SS $101
7 RUPERT OF LINCOLN NZ   V $34
8 ARGGGHHH   SS $34
9 MALCOLMS RHYTHM   SSV $10
10 BETTERNBETTER   V $7.5
 

SS=Sit Sprinter V=Versatile E=Enforcer L=Leader

OVERVIEW:Despite the fact this is far from the strongest Derby heat tonight it is still an absolute cracker featuring at least three runners with genuinely exceptional talent. That being said, having drawn gate one the freakishly brilliant HURRICANE HARLEY (1) looks near on impossible to beat. It’s actually tough to quantify how huge some of this little fella’s performances were last term. His demolition of arch-rival Centenario in a Vicbred Super Series semi-final and mind-blowing effort to sustain multiple runs when nailing that same horse in the season-ending Breeders crown decider were among the most exhilarating triumphs of the 2017/18 term. Tonight he rocks up with one dynamic trial behind him and if he holds his rivals wide early as expected they’ll only get as close to him as new driver Amanda Turnbull wants them to. Despite being comfortably handled by HURRICANE HARLEY (1) on multiple occasions last season his Breeders Challenge-winning stablemate HARDHITTER (5) looks an obvious second pick here particularly if he rolls forward and they control proceedings from the top end though BETTERNBETTER (10) is another excitement machine that finally gets his chance to tackle the cream after having his juvenile campaign curtailed by injury. The other two runners with significant upside are MALCOLMS RHYTHM (9) and OUR MILLIONAIRE (2) who cruised home in 1:54.1 at start number two beating Max Delight last time out while ARGGGHHH (8) can’t win but can certainly qualify for next week’s Derby final from the perfect trailing draw.

Selections

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  Jason Blake
HURRICANE HARLEY (1) HURRICANE HARLEY (1)
HARDHITTER (5) HARDHITTER (5)
BETTERNBETTER (10) OUR MILLIONAIRE (2)
4th MALCOLMS RHYTHM (9) ARGGGHHH (8)

Suggested Bet (Jason): Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 5,9,10/ 2,4,5,8,9,10 ($30 gets 200%)

Suggested Bet (Blake): Flexi Trifecta 1/2,5/2,5,8,10 for $20 gets 666.67%

Barrier Stats

Tabcorp Park Melton (Last 12 Months)
# Wins (Starts) # Wins (Starts)
1 39 (248) 8 16 (161)
2 28 (249) 9 12 (106)
3 32 (249) 10 13 (66)
4 29 (249) 11 4 (39)
5 37 (246) 12 2 (15)
6 21 (225) 13 0 (5)
7 16 (133)    

Driver Stats

Last 12 Months @ Melton (Drivers engaged this race)
Name Starts Wins 2nds 3rds S/R
Chris Alford 123 43 15 13 35%
Greg Sugars 114 20 14 10 18%
Michael Stanley 21 10 0 1 48%
Kima Frenning 27 8 4 4 30%
Sidney Van Den Brande 8 4 1 0 50%
Kerryn Manning 40 3 8 2 8%
John Caldow 35 2 8 3 6%
Craig Demmler 21 2 5 1 10%
Amanda Turnbull 5 2 0 0 40%
Anthony Frisby 1 0 0 0 0%

Trainer Stats

Last 12 Months @ Melton (Trainers engaged this race)
Name Starts Wins 2nds 3rds S/R
Emma Stewart 78 33 10 8 42%
Michael Stanley 26 11 1 2 42%
Kerryn Manning 21 5 6 4 24%
Craig Demmler 15 3 5 1 20%
David Aiken 12 2 6 2 17%
Keith Cotchin 2 1 0 0 50%
Maree Caldow 12 0 5 3 0%
Chris Frisby 1 0 0 0 0%

Market Fluctuations

Price change since market open (Updated:4pm 17/01/19)
Runner Name Open Current Change
1 HURRICANE HARLEY $1.35 $1.2 9.30%
2 OUR MILLIONAIRE $8 $10 -2.50%
3 OUR UNCLE JIM $51 $81 -0.70%
4 A FAIR OL DANCE $26 $41 -1.40%
5 HARDHITTER $6 $7.5 -3.30%
6 MESSERATI $51 $81 -0.70%
7 RUPERT OF LINCOLN $26 $41 -1.40%
8 ARGGGHHH $41 $41 0.00%
9 MALCOLMS RHYTHM $18 $19 -0.30%
10 BETTERNBETTER $12 $12 0.00%