OVERVIEW: Incredibly challenging race and hard to be confident. BETTA THAN LOVE (3) has been well supported in his two runs since returning to Victoria. He had his chance two starts back when second, then tried to lead last time but was under pressure a lap out and was beaten by a space. The stewards’ report had enough detail to suggest there may have been excuses, and he could bounce back off that effort. Monitor betting for any added confidence.

HOME AND DRY (9) hasn’t won since March, when he was able to lead, but you can make a case that this race looks to be his most suitable in some time. The form of this field suggests they are unlikely to be running fast times, which might be more comfortable for his sweet spot. He has a soft trailing draw to conserve and come with one run.

CHASING THE WIND (4) worked mid-race here last week and was sound to the line in a slogging affair. He hasn’t won in well over a year, but Alford jumps on again, so he’s worth considering. DELTA STARZ (6) was a winner two starts back, although the form out of that race hasn’t necessarily stacked up. He has an in-form driver, which helps. I had ROCKROLL RAMBO (7) on top from the same draw last week and he was never a factor, working home fairly. He will likely be map-negative again, so has place claims, similar to REASON TO LAUGH (10), who will need the right tempo.