Craig Rail’s selections, strategy and Quaddie for Friday night at Mildura
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: It is a strong race to commence the program with several winning chances. AVOCA BLUES (7) is drawn behind the likely leader NEVS DREAM (1) and is racing well enough to figure in the finish. He finished a close up third behind Shotinthedark at his latest appearance. RIO ROCK (11) is poorly drawn but will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment. She finished sixth in the Ouyen Cup on Sunday and was placed in a slick mile rate of 1.57.0 at Mildura on April 24. TO THE NINES (3) is a tough campaigner and is working up to a win. He was out three horses wide for over a lap when a big third at Mildura then was doing his best work late in a mile of 1.55.0 at Charlton. NEVS DREAM (1) is stepping up in class but is racing in peak form and has claims along with MIDNIGHT PIRATE (8), which was an impressive winner in easier grade last week, and NOBLE TRICK (10).
SELECTIONS: AVOCA BLUES (7), RIO ROCK (11), TO THE NINES (3), NEVS DREAM (1)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: LOUIEVILLE (4) settled midfield on the markers, weaved a passage then obtained an inside run when he finished off fast at his latest Mildura victory. He is a speedy type and this race is of similar quality so he is worth thought again. CALF PEN (7) pushed forward to find the lead, copped plenty of pressure mid-race and remained strong at the finish when he scored at Ouyen. He follows out behind the fast beginner IM ALRIGHT JACK (1) and should be competitive again. WATCHTHECLOCK (11) raced fiercely in the leading role and set up a good lead before peaking late when a creditable fourth last outing. He gets into this race better with the withdrawals of Maggacis and Royal Saxon so he must be respected. IM ALRIGHT JACK (1) should be in front for a long way and BRAVE ART (8) could also show up without surprising.
SELECTIONS: LOUIEVILLE (4), CALF PEN (7), WATCHTHECLOCK (11), BRAVE ART (8)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: HUNGRY HOGARTH (10) is a strong campaigner and will strip fitter from his first up sixth in a heat of the Pleasant Creek Plate series at Stawell. He recorded a slick mile rate of 1.56.4 when he scored at Mildura on October 03 and he boasts a reasonable record on the track so he should prove hard to beat under these conditions. GLITZY ALL OVER (11) has been racing well under similar conditions and should be finding the line strongly. She defeated Ronzel Micky at a Mildura victory on March 10. BOSS MAJOR (3) is a fast beginner and is drawn to be prominent throughout over the sprint distance. He was placed at Junee and Leeton back in March/April and is backing up quickly from his effort at Shepparton on Tuesday night. THE TOOTH FAIRY (4) led throughout at a Mildura victory on May 01. She is meeting a field of more depth now but she is a winning chance if she can find the lead again.
SELECTIONS: HUNGRY HOGARTH (10), GLITZY ALL OVER (11), BOSS MAJOR (3), THE TOOTH FAIRY (4)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: GRENADE (4) performs best when he is close to the speed so he will appreciate his best barrier draw for a long time. He picked up ground from a rearward position at his latest fifth and the last time he drew on the front line, he ran a game second behind the in-form pacer Maggacis. CORNELIA (5) was able to break through for a win after she worked forward to find the lead two starts ago. This is a race of similar standard so she is worth thought again. HESASTAR (6) missed out at Ouyen on Sunday but his recent efforts at Mildura have been sound so he is capable of bouncing back. He is likely to push forward at the start and is worth a ticket each way. LOVE TO DEAL (8) boasts a solid record at Mildura and was runner up at Globe Derby last week, where she followed through nicely from the inside of the second row. She has claims along with NO EMOTION (11), which is poorly drawn but is racing consistently.
BACK: GRENADE (4) – 1.5 units (each way)
SELECTIONS: GRENADE (4), CORNELIA (5), HESASTAR (6), LOVE TO DEAL (8)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: SEASIDE SHOW (1) is a fast beginner and is nearing her Maiden success. She attempted to lead throughout and battled on well for second behind American Guy in a mile of 1.58.5 at Charlton last outing. FRENCH BEACH (7) led out then took cover and was shuffled back on the markers mid-race when third on debut at Ouyen. She has the perfect trailing draw behind SEASIDE SHOW (1) and should run a good race again. MELS NIGHT OUT (3) trailed the leader and was held up badly for a run when third behind Ravishing Roxy then endured a tough run on the outside of the leader at his latest fourth. He continues to improve with the benefit of racing and looms as one of the leading chances. RODGEE STORM (6) has joined trainer Noel Walsh since his latest Bacchus Marsh trial effort and is worth thought along with POSTER ART (9).
BACK: SEASIDE SHOW (1) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: SEASIDE SHOW (1), FRENCH BEACH (7), MELS NIGHT OUT (3), RODGEE STORM (6)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: MY ULTIMATE JIMMY (6) finished well when a game second in the Ouyen Cup on Sunday. He was racing extremely well leading up to the Mildura Cup, winning a heat before fading after setting the speed in the Final. He appeared to be a little flat after that series at his next two attempts but he bounced back nicely last time out and he is the class runner of this field. DALLAS MIKI (3) looms as the logical danger. He finished fifth after setting up a cracking pace in the Ouyen Cup and will take catching if he can hold the lead over the sprint distance. SANTA CASA BEACH (8) performs best when he is able to lead so being drawn on the second line is a disadvantage. He copped plenty of pressure in the leading role when fourth at Mildura two starts ago then endured a torrid trip in the Ouyen Cup on Sunday so he is going better than his form reads. JAXON BEACH (5) and PRIORITISE (7) are both returning from a recent trip to Melton and are capable of showing up without surprising.
BACK: MY ULTIMATE JIMMY (6) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: MY ULTIMATE JIMMY (6), DALLAS MIKI (3), SANTA CASA BEACH (8), PRIORITISE (7)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: POSTERMAN (3) was aided by a fast early tempo but produced a barnstorming finish to win impressively at his debut. He settled last on the markers, was making up ground in the home straight but ran into a dead-end late so he was very unlucky when seventh at Charlton last time out. He should continue to improve with the benefit of experience and looms as a strong winning chance. RUBBLEONTHEDOUBLE (4) began quickly to find the lead and held off his rivals to score at Mildura then locked wheels with 150m remaining and should have finished closer at Ouyen on Sunday. He is a good chance of finding the lead again here and is worth an investment. PRIDDY CARSON (1) was placed after trailing the leader at Ouyen and is a place chance again from the pole position. MISTER BOOMBASTIK (7) is much better than his first up effort suggests and is a possible improver. ROCKNROLL LENNY (6) will appreciate a slight drop back in class for this assignment and has the ability to show up.
BACK: POSTERMAN (3) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: POSTERMAN (3), RUBBLEONTHEDOUBLE (4), PRIDDY CARSON (1), MISTER BOOMBASTIK (7)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
Race 4 No.4 Grenade – 1.5 units (each way)
Race 5 No.1 Seaside Show – 2 units (win)
Race 6 No.6 My Ultimate Jimmy – 3 units (win)
Race 7 No.3 Posterman – 2 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE (Cost $48, gives 20%)
1,3,7,8,10,11/ 1,4,7,8,11/ 3,4,10,11/ 4,5
QUADDIE (Cost $36)
4,5/ 1,3,7/ 3,6,8/ 3,4
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm generated price estimate based on a range of key form factors and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licensed bookmaker.
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** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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