Craig Rail has the selections, strategy and Quaddie for the Swan Hill Cup program on Friday night
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: EL LAZZAR (2) is racing in peak form and has the best barrier draw out of the major chances so he should prove hard to beat. He led throughout when a soft winner in a mile rate of 1.55.9 at Melton at his latest attempt. BELLA LOUISE (7) is also racing extremely well and should be competitive despite the poor draw. She defeated Major Drama (won since) at a Ballarat victory on October 01 and her recent third behind EL LAZZAR (2) was sound as she did all of the work in the run. FEEL THE REIGN (5) scored against similar opposition at Swan Hill two starts ago and has the speed to figure in the finish. OZZIE DAYBEAK (8) finished strongly at his first run since June and rates as a value chance.
SELECTIONS: EL LAZZAR (2), BELLA LOUISE (7), FEEL THE REIGN (5), OZZIE DAYBREAK (8)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: TALKNPLAY (7) has performed extremely well at his two starts since December and is a good chance of completing a hat trick. He completely dominated his rivals when scoring by a very large margin at Kilmore last outing and scored with something in hand at Swan Hill prior. BETTOR DOO (5) finished off best from a nice trailing position when he scored at Melton last outing. He is awkwardly drawn but is meeting a field of similar quality and should go well again. FLEUR BELLA (6) began quickly to find the lead and kicked on strongly to defeat EAGLEYE (9) at Mildura last outing. She has won three of her past five starts and looms one of the leading chances again. EAGLEYE (9) has joined trainer Allan MacDonald since her latest second at Mildura and is capable of filling a place again.
BACK: TALKNPLAY (7) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: TALKNPLAY (7), BETTOR DOO (5), FLEUR BELLA (6), EAGLEYE (9)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: STORMS COLLIDE (7) began quickly to lead from the pole position, copped plenty of pressure down the back straight in a sizzling third quarter of 26.9 seconds and peaked late when fourth in the Super Series Final last outing. His overall form is very strong and he is sure to make his presence felt. FOX DAN (9) got past STORMS COLLIDE (7) and won the Super Series Final at his latest attempt so he should prove hard to beat again. He did enjoy the perfect trip when he scored last time out and is not as well drawn but he boasts the very good record of thirteen wins from just twenty-four starts. CALEXICO (8) pushed forward to park without cover from the 1100m and proved to be too strong in a handy mile rate of 1.54.3 at Swan Hill last outing. He is awkwardly drawn but should run his usual honest race. PAS GUARANTEE (4) was runner up at Melton behind My Ultimate Barney last week when he led out then took cover and is likely to try and adopt similar tactics in this event.
BACK: STORMS COLLIDE (7) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: STORMS COLLIDE (7), FOX DAN (9), CALEXICO (8), PAS GUARANTEE (4)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: STAR VISION (7) created a big impression at his first three starts prior to contesting Super Series events. He drops back to a more suitable assignment now and is sure to be strongly fancied. MAJOR DRAMA (2) is stepping up in class but is racing in great form and produced a big finale last time out. He should gain an economical run from his good draw and is worth thought again. MIDNIGHT PIRATE (5) has been racing in good form at Mildura and is a fast beginner so he should be prominent throughout. CHEERS POVERTY (4) is another fast beginner and is a minor place possibility if he can get across to the markers shortly after the start.
SELECTIONS: STAR VISION (7), MAJOR DRAMA (2), MIDNIGHT PIRATE (5), CHEERS POVERTY (4)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: THE FINAL DANCE (3) was competing in the Super Series (eighth in the Final) prior to a convincing win in a mile rate of 1.55.3 at Geelong then followed with a ninth in a heat of the Victoria Derby. He has been racing in strong grade and is drawn to give a bold showing. MY ULTIMATE JIMMY (10) returned from a spell in style with a convincing win at Mildura then finished unplaced after enduring a tough run on that track last time out. He won a heat of the Mildura Cup earlier in the season and was runner up in the Ouyen Cup so he has the class to test this field. BIZZNESS CLASS (7) is terribly drawn but he has been racing in outstanding form at Metropolitan level and he should be hitting the line strongly. LOUGLE (9) has won six races for the season and has been racing at a high level. He broke stride in the latter stages when looking a big winning chance at Swan Hill last outing and is worth another chance. TO THE NINES (6) is a versatile pacer that is racing in peak form and must be considered as one of the winning chances. He produced a big finish when an eye-catching third at Mildura two starts ago then didn’t have much room in the straight last outing.
SELECTIONS: THE FINAL DANCE (3), MY ULTIMATE JIMMY (10), BIZZNESS CLASS (7), LOUGLE (9)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: HOUSE PARTY (7) won the Mermaid Stakes in South Australia before competing in the Super Series where unplaced behind the star mare Theartofsuccess in the Final. She was surprisingly beaten into third ($1-12 fav) at Ballarat last outing but she worked hard in the run and is capable of bouncing back against this line up. THE END (4) was performing extremely well at the trials prior to winning softly against the Maiden class at his debut. He is a promising juvenile pacer and should go well again. FULL CRUNCH AHEAD (5) was resuming since January when he moved through to trail the leader at the 500m and worked into third behind Hez Harrywho at Shepparton. He should be fitter from that performance and is worth an investment. QUEENS BOULEVARD (6) is a fast beginner and is racing in good form. She led throughout at Stawell on September 14 and is capable of filling a place despite her wide draw.
SELECTIONS: HOUSE PARTY (7), THE END (4), FULL CRUNCH AHEAD (5), QUEENS BOULEVARD (6)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: ALTO CORAGGIO (1) has been runner up in all of his three starts to date and deserves to break through for a win. He pushed forward to find the lead and was run down in the latter stages when a close second behind Beryl’s Boots last outing. EVA EXPRESS (4) led out then took cover and finished fourth behind Pet Wolf in a slick mile rate of 1.54.9 at Melton last outing. She finished a close up fourth (2m) on debut and she should be competitive under these conditions. TAMALIA (3) attempted to lead throughout when a close third at Shepparton then followed with an unplaced effort in the race won by Pet Wolf at Melton. She might find this assignment to be more suitable and is worth a place ticket. KELCH (6) is yet to be placed in six starts to date but this is a slightly easier assignment so he is a possible improver.
BACK: ALTO CORAGGIO (1) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ALTO CORAGGIO (1), EVA EXPRESS (4), TAMALIA (3), KELCH (6)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: TOORAM DANNY (4) settled midfield and finished off strongly to win easily at Swan Hill then took on a strong field when fifth behind Decode at Melton last outing. He appears to be well placed against this line up and looms as a strong winning chance. CRACKIN PHILTRA (5) pushed forward to find the lead, ran along at a good tempo and scored comfortably at Kilmore last outing. He is yet to miss a place in four starts to date and recorded a slick final half last time out so he should give another forward showing. XLENDI STAR (2) is resuming since a third at Mildura in May but will be fitter after finishing in third at a Bacchus Marsh trial on Saturday. He did well in two starts at his first preparation of racing and cannot be underestimated. CHAINSMOKE (3) produced a strong finish from midfield to score at Swan Hill when resuming then struck trouble and lost his chance at Kilmore. He is a speedy type and is a winning chance against this line up.
BACK: TOORAM DANNY (4) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: TOORAM DANNY (4), CRACKIN PHILTRA (5), XLENDI STAR (2), CHAINSMOKE (3)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
Race 2 No.7 Talknplay – 3 units (win)
Race 3 No.7 Storms Collide – 2 units (win)
Race 7 No.1 Alto Coraggio – 3 units (win)
Race 8 No.4 Tooram Danny – 2 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE (Cost $36, gives 50%)
1,2,5,7,8,11/ 5,6,7/ 7,9/ 3,7
QUADDIE (Cost $40)
3,6,7,9,10/ 4,7/ 1/ 2,3,4,5
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm generated price estimate based on a range of key form factors and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licensed bookmaker.
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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