Ryan Phelan has your tips and Quaddies for Shepparton harness tonight.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: MICHEN ROY (11) is first-up from a break without a trial but looks very well suited with the concession claim, despite the draw and needing the right tempo. He can do it tough, or the expected mile rate here may even allow him to overcome them with one run. His record at this track and distance is positive.
EAGLE MAJOR (3) finds a suitable race after racing up in class his past few runs. He was a winner here four runs back in a very similar line-up, where he was too strong coming off the pace. He can show reasonable gate speed, but there are quicker ones off the gate inside and outside him, so the map is crucial. TYPHOON (10) has only had the four starts but has managed two wins, on both occasions leading all the way. He must overcome the backrow draw now but looks well in the mix with the concession. MUSSEL SHOALS (1) and MADAM REACTOR (4) look the most likely to fight out the early lead, and although they are both going okay, that early burn may hurt. If either were to find the front and get a good time of it, their chances improve greatly.
SELECTIONS: MICHEN ROY (11), EAGLE MAJOR (3), TYPHOON (10), MUSSEL SHOALS (1)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: MAMMALS REASON (3) has had three runs for the new stable, and although they have been in easier grade, they’ve been full of merit, winning two from three. She’s been given a good trip each time, and you can expect that again from one of the track’s most prolific drivers.
ELLEEGANT LANE (5) has been racing okay this season and was solid last start at Cranbourne in a race more challenging than she meets here. She should get a nice drag across with the speed and map well. ELIZA JANE (10) galloped away last start, costing herself all chance as favourite. Her two runs prior to that were quite good, and although she must overcome a tricky draw, this line-up isn’t overly strong. OUR MYSTERY BET (7) found the line well last week and does race well over the middle trip. I’m just not sure how things work out from this tricky draw. NORTHERN TERROR (7) has had far from ideal circumstances at his past three starts but now gets Herbertson and a likely soft map behind potential leader STANDANDELIVER (2), who has been racing better his past few, particularly from front-row draws.
SELECTIONS: MAMMALS REASON (3), ELLEEGANT LANE (5), ELIZA JANE (10), STANDANDELIVER (2)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: Another very tricky race to start. MISS HERMES (6) looks ready to return to her best form in this grade and is suited with the mare’s allowance. In similar grade last week, she got a nice drive and went close when finishing second. There’s plenty of speed inside her, but if she can slide across and get a handy position, she has a good record at this track and, with even luck, can return to the winner’s list.
MYNAMEISRUBY (4) returns to the front row after starting from outside the back row last week. She was a winner in front three starts back and regularly looks to lead from these draws over the mile, while she also gets the ace driver at this track aboard. ARRAPS (3) could be open to improvement at this level and from this draw. His best form is indicated by his last win in April, where from the front line he was able to lead and was too strong. There’s speed inside and out, but he may get a nice map to put his best foot forward.
TOMMYS LOOKOUT (5) has a sticky draw to contend with but has been racing well in similar company. He was a winner beating many of these from the back row last month. ATOMIC GLORY (2) ran home well last time and has claims, as does KNOW THE SCORE (8), who is racing okay but will need plenty of luck from the draw.
SELECTIONS: MISS HERMES (6), MYNAMEISRUBY (4), ARRAPS (3), TOMMYS LOOKOUT (5)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: Another challenging race in a difficult Early Quaddie. MIKI MARK (8) is awkwardly drawn but well placed with Tasmyn Potter’s claim. His performances this campaign have had merit, often in stronger company. There’s a chance there could be a decent tempo given the way the front line shapes, and if the breaks come late, he can be in the finish.
OLLY ODD POTTS (3) was very good last start. Unfortunately, she’s proven a little inconsistent in backing up her performances, however. She drifted back last week but could map closer now and go close. FINAL BOW (7) from a better draw could have started favourite here, having beaten many of these. She will need luck, but she’s always a consideration in this class. CLIVES GIRL (5) is always popular in the market in these races but has been a bit costly. This does, however, look to be another suitable assignment, so she is worth keeping safe. The chances don’t end there, with DREAMTIME NALA (4), AMADA VILLMA (6) and ALCATRAZ GIRL (9) capable of improvement with the right runs.
SELECTIONS: MIKI MARK (8), OLLY ODD POTTS (3), FINAL BOW (7), CLIVES GIRL (5)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: ALTO CORRAGIO (8) is giving away experience here as a 2yo having his second start, but his performance on debut here last week was solid after looking good at the trials. He looks likely to get a good run through and map well over the short trip, and with added fitness and the in-form stable, he looks a winning chance.
TOUCH OF REALITY (1) is nearing a win after finishing second last time out as favourite at Melton, albeit having every chance. She has enough speed to kick up from the pole and have options from there tactically. PICTURE BOY (2) joins an astute stable after stepping out in a maiden at Wagga in good time. The winner of that race was average subsequently, so it’s hard to read that form, but he is worth keeping safe. JUST MY LUCK (10) is first-up from a break and has trialled well leading into this. There’s ability there, and although he has a tricky draw to overcome, don’t dismiss him.
BACK: ALTO CORRAGIO (8) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ALTO CORRAGIO (8), TOUCH OF REALITY (1), PICTURE BOY (2), JUST MY LUCK (10)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: JOE LOU (7) has been racing in career-best form over the past couple of months and finds a suitable race here despite the wide draw. He can afford an aggressive drive forward based on how he’s been racing, winning three of his past five. Although he went down as favourite last start, the winner simply had a better trip, and he can return to winning form here.
WHATS THE TEA (5) has been racing in the same races as the top pick and going well, but now gets the advantage of a better draw to roll forward. He’s a grinding type who, if on the pace, will be swinging to the finish. KALARNEY PRINCE (3) returns to the front row and could be open to sharp improvement with his early gate speed. He’s likely to take cover and map well from the draw. LITTLE TEDEY (4) tends to run his best races from good draws and could be a knockout chance if they happen to overdo things.
BACK: JOE LOU (7) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: JOE LOU (7), WHATS THE TEA (5), KALARNEY PRINCE (3), LITTLE TEDEY (4)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: SO SKEPTICAL (5) produced a performance on debut that was hard to miss, galloping at the start and giving them a big head start, only to catch the field and come late to miss by just a metre. She meets much stronger opposition here, but to the eye, when she trotted soundly, she looked pretty smart, so I’m hoping that outing settles her enough to produce her best.
IJUSTCANTSEEIT (4) has already proven her ability across two preparations, winning the Vicbred Homegrown as a 2yo and even having a crack at the NSW Trotters Oaks as a 3yo. She’s trialled okay leading into this and commands respect as the likely favourite and testing material. MAJESTIC YANKEE (7) won two starts ago and defeated the horse who beat the top pick last week, so the form lines are okay. Her manners let her down last time, but she is worth keeping safe. MINI MIA (1) was a winner from the same draw three runs back and looked to have every hope last time when fancied. She has minor claims from the soft draw.
BACK: SO SKEPTICAL (5) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: SO SKEPTICAL (5), IJUSTCANTSEEIT (4), MAJESTIC YANKEE (7), MINI MIA (1)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: STRAIGHT TO THETOP (5) seems well placed under the mobile conditions back to the short trip, as she’s a mare who possesses good early gate speed and is a strong chance of crossing to the pegs first here. She was a good winner two runs back under standing-start conditions and was sound again last start when well supported. She likes this track, and if she does find the top, she will be hard to catch.
JILLIBY TOPGUN (4) is enjoying his best campaign yet, winning five from 14. He was a little out of his grade last time and can bounce back here on his home track, where he races best, and back in a suitable grade. TRIPOD (3) could be a roughie open to improvement, as this is by far the easiest race, he’s contested in quite a while. In saying that, he hasn’t won in three years, but he’s worth including considering the class drop and his record at this track. KENNYS SON (2) turned in his most indifferent run of the preparation in SA last start, where he didn’t bring his best manners. His form prior was sound, and he looks set to get the right run.
BACK: STRAIGHT TO THETOP (5) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: STRAIGHT TO THETOP (5), JILLIBY TOPGUN (4), TRIPOD (3), KENNYS SON (2)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R5 #8 ALTO CORRAGIO – 2.5 units (win)
R6 #7 JOE LOU – 3 units (win)
R7 #5 SO SKEPTICAL – 2.5 units (win)
R8 #5 STRAIGHT TO THETOP – 2 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
1,3,4,10,11/1,2,4,5,7,10/3,4,5,6/3,5,7,8
QUADDIE
1,2,8/3,5,7/4,5/2,3,4,5
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licenced bookmaker.
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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