Ryan Phelan has your tips and Quaddies for Cranbourne Sunday.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: A nice quality trot to start the program, with several runners mixing it at metropolitan level. CENTURION DREAM (7) draws poorly but has been in a purple patch of form at Melton of late. She’s proven her versatility, showing gate speed and the ability to come from off the pace, so those options are in her favour.
ALDEBARAN SUSANNE (8) is a little awkwardly drawn, but she’s been racing well of late from front-row draws before taking cover. She will likely be driven for luck, but if the breaks come, she can be strong late. JUST I AM (5) is a quick beginner who will look for the lead here and normally takes cover thereafter. He’s run some good races in town and recently ran a good 2nd in the Vicbred Silver. This track should suit him having his first crack here. ZARSKI (3) has won two of his last four and has been just a little outclassed in between in the Vicbred Series. He draws to map well and is in the mix in an open race. It will come down to luck in running for the others, but SOVEREIGN TIGER (1), AVANT GUARD (4) and TICTOK (9) can be considered for the wider Early Quaddie.
SELECTIONS: CENTURION DREAM (7), ALDEBARAN SUSANNE (8), JUST I AM (5), ZARSKI (3)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: A nice race with some progressive types, and RIVER STORM (4) is one of those as a 3yo who has recently come through the Vicbred Series, where he ran 2nd in a strong heat before drawing poorly in the final and having no luck. He can press forward from the draw here and, with added fitness, show the quality that saw him a fast winner at this track as a 2yo.
BULLETPROOF KID (3) dropped right out last time, but if you assess him on his form prior, particularly at this track, he must be respected. He has good speed to either lead or take the right cover and improve on his last outing to be in the finish. MISTER AMERICANO (1) is a smart 3yo who is first up off one trial, where he beat quite a decent field. The problem is his lack of gate speed and fitness, so he’s likely to need the tempo on and the breaks to come to show his best. MISS ADDI (5) and SHAZZA LOVE (7) look next best on form. However, both have sticky draws but are in the mix for the multiples.
BACK: RIVER STORM (4) – 3.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: RIVER STORM (4), BULLETPROOF KID (3), MISTER AMERICANO (1), MISS ADDI (5)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: BETA THAN LOVE (1) has been costly and hasn’t won for over a year, but his encouraging 2nd last time, where he just missed, suggests he’s getting back to his best form. The pole draw, with gate speed and options, is in his favour, as is the form of Liam Older, giving extra confidence.
ALCATRAZ GIRL (6) is a very quick beginner and can likely cross to the pegs despite the wide draw. She was disappointing in a winnable race last time, but this is easier again, giving her another chance. GOODTIME MAE (8) draws softly and gets Herbertson in a winnable race, so how close she gets on the map will determine her chances, but she is worth keeping safe. OLLY ODD POTTS (5) has been thereabouts lately, despite being a little hard to catch as a winning commodity. She does have a reasonable strike rate at this track, so if she gets a nice map, she can be in the mix. ROCKNROLL RAMBO (3) finds a good draw and is getting closer but is winless this season, as is ICANMOTOR (4), although both have minor claims. FAKE CULLECTION (7) is going okay, but the draw hurts.
SELECTIONS: BETA THAN LOVE (1), ALCATRAZ GIRL (6), GOODTIME MAE (8), OLLY ODD POTTS (5)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: A race with a mix of ages, and WINCHESTER BOY (2) is a 2yo giving away experience but couldn’t have been more impressive in a trial recently at Melton, where he won by a space, albeit without beating much. He had, however, been trialling against good quality types prior, and was progressing well. This race doesn’t present as overly strong on debut, and a good trainer/driver combination also appeals to add extra confidence.
HOLLOW LOG (4), in contrast, is a 7yo who’s only had the one career start, which was inconclusive. He showed plenty of gate speed in a recent trial where he went okay, and that map advantage should hold him in good stead. RETRO FIT (5) improved slightly last time out to finish 3rd at this track, albeit from a better draw. In a race of limited chances, she’s in the mix. GLENANGE MISS (1) needs to lift on her recent form, but the soft draw helps her chances of improving.
BACK: WINCHESTER BOY (2) – 4.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: WINCHESTER BOY (2), HOLLOW LOG (4), RETRO FIT (5), GLENANGE MISS (1)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: Looks a nice map for a leader–behind-leader scenario here, with ROBLEN RANGER (1) and QUICK CRUNCH (2) possessing the best speed in this small field, although it’s unclear which of those two would rather take cover.
QUICK CRUNCH (2) was driven urgently for the lead three runs back and then took cover, but her last victory at Ballarat in June came from leading, dictating terms and proving too slick over the last half. I like those tactics to get her back onto the winners’ list, and she’s been racing well overall this preparation. ROBLEN RANGER (1) was a value play last time, but he did have every chance and was just okay. He looks to get the same run again and presents as a danger on his best form. TEX GOES BANG (3) likes this track and has been racing well in his last few. He’s not blessed with gate speed and will have the task of carting them up, but without much tempo expected, he can hang tough. LUVERBOY (5) is going better than his form suggests, and although he had every hope last time, he was still solid to the line, and that race was harder than this.
BACK: QUICK CRUNCH (2) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: QUICK CRUNCH (2), ROBLEN RANGER (1), TEX GOES BANG (3), LUVERBOY (5)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: PRECIOUS BELLE (6) looks the most disadvantaged by the draw and the likely map. However, the small field and her ability to dash at the end of her races can negate that. The times she is capable of are a little stronger than most of the opposition here, so she can pick these off late when the breaks come.
IAMAWINGATE (1) is on the back-up from Tuesday night, where I found him as one of the bets for the night and he was just fair. Now he’s drawn barrier one over the short trip, he can be given another chance to improve, as he finds a very suitable race and set-up to return to winning form.
OPERTSER (3) may find this a little more suitable than his last couple of runs and looks to get decent cover from the inside draw. He put together a few good runs at this level a month ago, so he can bounce back. TOPHUT JOHNY (4) likes this track and does get back to the front row. He may think about having a dip for the lead but is likely to get crossed from out wide, so his map could be a little sticky. GIDGET KAY (5) is the likely leader, but her last couple of runs have been too poor to recommend.
SELECTIONS: PRECIOUS BELLE (6), IAMAWINGATE (1), OPERTSER (3), TOPHUT JOHNY (4)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: Interesting race for the trotters, with three 3yo first starters who have all trialled with promise.
Let’s go in racebook order. WHITERING (1) has had two trials and looked relatively professional in the most recent at Melton, where he finished 2nd. DESERT VIPER (2) won that three-horse trial, where they didn’t go overly quickly, but interestingly, Herbertson was driving and clearly wanted to give her some education by racing her outside the speed. In another trial, she was driven off the speed and found the line well. That trial was won by BIRMINGHAM GIRL (3), who showed good speed to lead and then took the trail before sprinting again along the sprint lane to win the trial. She was, however, beaten quite comfortably by the other pair in another trial. WALKING ON WATER (4) is a 4yo mare with the most experience and has improved recently with a couple of 2nds at this track. She is a 14-start maiden, however, but if the rest don’t bring their manners, she could be the last one standing.
SELECTIONS: DESERT VIPER (2), WHITERING (1), BIRMINGHAM GIRL (3), WALKING ON WATER (4)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R2 #4 RIVER STORM – 3.5 units (win)
R4 #2 WINCHESTER BOY – 4.5 units (win)
R5 #2 QUICK CRUNCH (2) – 2 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
1,3,4,5,7,8,9/3,4/1,3,4,5,6,7,8/2
QUADDIE
2/1,2/1,3,4,6/1,2,3
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer-generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licensed bookmaker.
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
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