Ryan Phelan has done the form for Shepparton harness Wednesday night.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: TOBYS SHOUT (8) could be the beneficiary of some good early speed off the front row here, with a few likely to want the top spot over the short trip. At best, he can map behind the leader, but even if he’s three pegs, he can strike from there. He was a good winner at Wagga two back and backed that up from a bad draw last time when doing plenty of work. If he gets the luck, he’ll be charging late.
ALTA BAYAMO (3) is a different horse when he can lead, but he’s going to have to really burn to cross those drawn inside. He’s a rocks-or-diamonds play but would be easy to find on top if there were more certainty with the map. MUSSEL SHOALS (2) is a quick beginner first up from a break off one trial. She’s well placed with the mares’ allowance, and despite having fitness to come, her likely map over the short trip makes her an attractive option. CRESCO THREEPEAT (9) could be an improver on recent form if there is a good early tempo. He’s a grinding type who will keep coming if the leaders get tired. EAGLE MAJOR (10) and TRYX VIXEN (11) have bad draws to overcome but could be kept safe if you want some extra insurance for the Early Quaddie.
SELECTIONS: TOBYS SHOUT (8), ALTA BAYAMO (3), MUSSEL SHOALS (2), CRESCO THREEPEAT (9)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: ALDEBARAN DENBAY (7) has been near faultless in four runs for new trainer Brooke McPherson, winning three straight before his 2nd at Menangle last time, when he was a well-supported favourite and still ran well. This doesn’t look any more challenging than what he’s been taking on, and despite drawing wide, he can press forward. There’s no reason he can’t go on with it.
THE CHOOK (8) is a little awkwardly drawn, but her recent form is hard to ignore at this level. She has a good strike rate at this track, and if the breaks come, she will be in the finish. KALARNEY PRINCE (2) has been racing up in class and drops back to the level that saw him a winner three runs back. He should map softly, and a repeat of that previous win would be a good benchmark to go close. ALDEBARAN MARCUS (6) is backing up from Sunday and may be in a sticky position map-wise, but if things work out, he has claims.
BACK: ALDEBARAN DENBAY (7) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ALDEBARAN DENBAY (7), THE CHOOK (8), KALARNEY PRINCE (2), ALDEBARAN MARCUS (6)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: MYNAMEISRUBY (5) runs her best races for James Herbertson and finds a nice map here, where she looks likely to cross those drawn inside comfortably and then have options thereafter, either holding the lead depending on the pressure or taking the right cover. The middle section should be slow, so she should have enough air in the lungs to close off.
GOODTIME MAE (6) may try to wrestle away the lead, as she did three runs back when failing as an odds-on favourite. This looks easier, so with the right map, she is capable of improvement. JOEYS HANGOVER (11) won that race, but on that occasion, he drew more favourably. He’s still well placed on the ratings scale and can do his best work late with enough tempo. SALSBOY (10) is a veteran who’s been racing okay but performs better when he’s able to race closer to the speed. Don’t dismiss him. FAKE CULLECTION (7) may be sent forward from the draw, but I’m not sure how that works out. She’s going well enough, so despite needing luck, she should be in calculations.
SELECTIONS: MYNAMEISRUBY (5), GOODTIME MAE (6), JOEYS HANGOVER (11), SALSBOY (10)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: A real mix of ages and form lines here, with several smart 2yos taking on more experienced types. DELIZIOSO (4) is a smart 3yo filly who drops in class coming out of the Victoria Oaks, where she ran a gutsy 5th. She’s third up here after bumping into some good ones in her first two outings, and she may need some luck with the map, but she’s a gutsy type who will give her all.
BETTORBUST (5) has recorded both his wins at Mildura, but they’ve been full of merit, showing good versatility. Last time, he had to sustain a long run from the back and was too good. It will be fascinating to see how he shapes up here, as he looks to have ability. ASHANTE WARRIOR (2) was chasing what looks to be a smart one when 2nd at Melton last start, and that followed a good win at Kilmore when able to lead. He’s in the mix. MAJOR ORION (3) is racing well without much luck and now has a more positive draw to race forward. He’s deserving of another win, if not here then soon. ATOMIK GO ANNA (10) is a fascinating runner, being a 2yo filly who’s been taking on the best of her age and sex in NSW. It’s just hard to line her up with the others from this draw over the short trip.
SELECTIONS: DELIZIOSO (4), BETTORBUST (5), MAJOR ORION (3), ASHANTE WARRIOR (2)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: TALISKER SKIPPER (7) looks well served with the claim and mares’ allowance and, as an O/D runner, is the sole runner off the back row with options. Her recent form has been quite good, winning five runs back at Melton and not finishing far away since. If the polemarker can lead, there’s every chance she could get a perfect spot behind it.
OHHEMMJAY CRESCO (1) was able to lead at Cranbourne from the pole two runs back, where he ran a good 2nd, and prior to that led all the way at Wagga. If he finds the top spot, he will take plenty of running down. OLLY ODD POTTS (2) has been racing more consistently of late and was rewarded with a win at Cranbourne last time, beating a weaker field when able to lead. LATHER ME UP (5) is a 2yo filly who switches to the smart Ashwood barn. She has gate speed, and although her form doesn’t really stack up, monitor any betting moves for a potential spike on what she’s been producing. Of the rest, ZEUSS (3) can improve now he’s had more time with the new stable, and BERYLS BOOTS (4) has been racing well despite finding a stronger field here. Both are worth throwing into the Quaddie.
BACK: TALISKER SKIPPER (7) – 1 unit (win)
SELECTIONS: TALISKER SKIPPER (7), OHHEMMJAY CRESCO (1), OLLY ODD POTTS (2), LATHER ME UP (5)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: OUR SWEET JEANNIE (1) returns to her favourite track and grade after racing against the elite 3yos. She has early gate speed, but she will have company from out wide to get the map she wants. She’s won three of five starts here at Shepparton, and I’m backing the class drop to see her return to winning form.
MASON JOLIE (7) is another who drops in grade but has been racing gamely against some smart types. He can finish his races off well but will need the right tempo in a small field. YAPPER (3) gets Herbertson and can be driven urgently, with speed inside and outside him, to see how the map works out. He’s not had much luck in his last few, so expect him to improve on his numerical form. IM DUSTEE (2) just missed last week, and if he can hunt up well enough to follow the top pick, he will be closing late.
BACK: OUR SWEET JEANNIE (1) – 4 units (win)
SELECTIONS: OUR SWEET JEANNIE (1), MASON JOLIE (7), YAPPER (3), IM DUSTEE (2)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: MILLIES BOY (6) is a 2yo gelding having her first start and has trialled well for this, going across the line together with a stablemate who won last week, providing a good form reference. The stable is flying, which is another layer of confidence in a race that requires a bit of guesswork.
OZZIE BULL (8) has been a lot better in his last few, and to be fair, he’s been racing at a much better level than this in most of his six starts. The draw isn’t ideal, but he’s on the improve. IM A ROCKSTAR (2) met with market support at longer odds last week in what looked a challenging race on paper, but she ran well, and a repeat of that performance has her in the mix. JASPER JAY (5) loomed up to do something and just peaked on his run first up to finish 3rd here last week. He showed decent ability last preparation, so he can go on with it. KELLYS COMMOTION (4) has her first run for the new stable after arriving from NSW, but I wasn’t rapt with the trial. Monitor betting moves and throw her into the Quaddie, even though there are question marks.
SELECTIONS: MILLIES BOY (6), OZZIE BULL (8), IM A ROCKSTAR (2), JASPER JAY (5)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: YELLA (3) has been my top pick in his past three runs, and even though he hasn’t saluted, he’s been quite good from bad draws and finding the line well. The key difference is that he can take up a more forward position this time, and the smaller field is also in his favour, meaning he won’t have to sustain such a long run should he elect to take a sit. SASSY GABBY (7) was first up from a break here last week, settled back in the field and ran home well. She might have to give them a start but is on an upward trajectory. BLUE CANNON (2) continues dropping in grade, and although his form isn’t great, he becomes an enticing option based on his best form. The favourable draw also helps. SON OF A BROAD (4) broke his maiden here last week and is a tough, grinding type, so if he’s not too far off them, he will be in the finish.
BACK: YELLA (3) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: YELLA (3), SASSY GABBY (7), BLUE CANNON (2), SON OF A BROAD (4)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R2 #7 ALDEBARAN DENBAY – 3 units (win)
R5 #7 TALISKER SKIPPER – 1 unit (win)
R6 #1 OUR SWEET JEANNIE – 4 units (win)
R8 #3 YELLA – 2 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
2,3,8,10,11/7,8/5,6,7,10,11/2,3,4,5,10
QUADDIE
1,2,3,4,5,7/1/2,4,5,6,8/2,3,4,7
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer-generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licensed bookmaker.
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