Ryan Phelan has your tips, strategy and Quaddies for Shepparton.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: MICHEN ROY (4) returns to the front row after three challenging draws off the back, one of which he was able to overcome to win at this track two starts back, albeit in easier company. He copped a check last start at Melton when getting to the line fairly in a much tougher race. He will appreciate the middle trip and the opportunity to roll forward and use his strength.
MOMENTUM SHIFT (3) can be a sharp improver on his numerical form, drawn well for the first time in a while and able to map positively. He’s been okay in much tougher grade than this and should represent good value. HELLOVATIME (5) is a very honest type who’s only finished outside the top four once in sixteen starts this season. He was a winner in good time two starts back at Wagga and was up in grade last start, where he missed narrowly after getting a good run. He’s a strong chance of getting the job done again if he gets the right trip. LILLY LOTUS (6) hasn’t been at her best this season, but she has been racing against strong company throughout. She was in the stewards’ report after her last start at Melton and, based on that, we can expect a more conservative drive, but her best is good enough. CEE CEE LOU (8) is worth including in the Early Quaddie. He’s second-up and was okay in a sprint home last time. He has a cosy draw and does enjoy this circuit.
SELECTIONS: MICHEN ROY (4), MOMENTUM SHIFT (3), HELLOVATIME (5), LILLY LOTUS (6)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: SOHO PLAYGIRL (9) joins the in-form Turnbull stable after the sad passing of Ted Jepsen in July, and victory would be fitting for his memory. She’s had one trial and ran well there, and although she’s normally better suited off the front row, she does follow out some speedy ones. Last preparation she was racing in tougher grade than this and will give this a real shake fresh-up.
MADAM REACTOR (6) will run the gate, and her regular pattern is to take cover thereafter. She’s been racing honestly and likes this track, so will get her chance if that pattern eventuates. HES CHARLIES ANGEL (2) has the chance to improve on his numerical form, dropping back to a suitable grade. He has gate speed and will look for the top end, which could assist him in breaking a long run of outs. IM DUSTEE (7) is first-up from a bad draw here and will need plenty of luck, but he loves this track and his best form is better than most here. AMERICAN MICHI (10) has been in the tips plenty of times and he does have ability, but he’s starting to become a little frustrating with his manners. Keep him safe. The chances don’t end there, with CORNISHTOWN KID (1) and AXIS ANGEL (8) having minor claims for exotics from soft draws.
SELECTIONS: SOHO PLAYGIRL (9), MADAM REACTOR (6), HES CHARLIES ANGEL (2), IM DUSTEE (7)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: ALTO CORRAGIO (9) is giving away experience here as a 2yo having only his second start, but his performance on debut was solid after looking good at the trials. He looks likely to get a good run through and map well over the short trip, and with added fitness and the in-form stable, he looks a winning chance against even opposition.
PIASTRI (4) is a 3yo who was good first-up, running into a smart 2yo and having to overcome a tricky draw on that occasion. That was the best run of his career so far, so a repeat has him right in it. MAJOR FRIEND (8) is a 3yo filly who’s been a model of consistency, placing six times from seven starts this season. She gets a soft draw and will need luck at some stage but is in the mix. Outside of those, it will come down to who gets the best run for the third and fourth spots, with DEXTERS DONE (2), CAPTAIN MILO (3) and DONTTELLNANNA (10) heading those chances.
BACK: ALTO CORRAGIO (9) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ALTO CORRAGIO (9), PIASTRI (4), MAJOR FRIEND (8), DONTTELLNANNA (10)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: MAJESTIC MONARCH (4) won as an odds-on favourite when able to lead two starts back, then failed last time out, but it was a luckless run where he settled back in the field and was coming hard late, only to be denied clear running at a vital stage. In this company and from this draw, expect a more assertive drive at the start and for him to be hard to run down.
DOSSIER (2) has been creeping down in grade each start and sucking me in, and she looks well placed again based on what her best level is capable of. She’s not a brilliant beginner, but if she can map behind the speed, or at worst three pegs, she’s a strong chance on a value basis. DISTANT SUN (10) will find this company more suitable than recent starts, and the claim of Blake Pace helps his chances. That pair combined for victory five starts back at Kilmore and can be strong late. CENTURION DREAM (11) will deservedly have some market support and does strike easier opposition, but she won’t have the opportunity to use her speed and map well, which is a slight negative. STRAIGHT TO THETOP (3) can normally show speed but mixes her tactics as to whether she holds the front or takes cover. She’s been fair lately, although there have been higher expectations based on her SP profile.
BACK: MAJESTIC MONARCH (4) – 1.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: MAJESTIC MONARCH (4), DOSSIER (2), DISTANT SUN (10), CENTURION DREAM (11)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: FINAL BOW (9) ticks a lot of boxes here in the right grade, dropping significantly in class and racing at her favourite track, where she’s only missed a place six times from eighteen starts. She draws out behind a couple of speedy beginners, which should allow her to map into a striking position, with the top driver at this track aboard to time things to perfection. She’s won her past three starts here, producing strong closing sectionals each time, and looks primed to do so again.
SMOKING SHANNON (10) looks the testing material, having put in three solid performances for the new stable, including a win three starts back at this track. She goes to the back row, which is a disadvantage, but she’s still a solid chance. MYNAMEISRUBY (3) will show her usual early speed and give plenty of cheek over her favourite distance. Her times are limited compared to what the top pick can produce, however. TOPHUT JOHNY (8) will benefit from a cosy run and can come with one burst over the concluding stages. Navigating traffic limits his winning chances, but he has place claims. In fact, there are a few in the hunt for minor exotics in ATOMIC GLORY (2), WHERES WOOD WOOD (5) and FAVOURITEHIGHLIGHT (7) with the right runs.
BACK: FINAL BOW (9) – 3.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: FINAL BOW (9), SMOKING SHANNON (10), MYNAMEISRUBY (3), TOPHUT JOHNY (8)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: A race mixing 2yos, 3yos and older horses. CORBIE LAIDIR (2) is a 2yo making his debut for the Pitt stable, which continues to produce quality youngsters this season. In a recent trial here, he ran second to a smart one, which measures up very well for this. He can press forward from this favourable draw, and any market push would only add to the confidence levels.
TOUCH OF REALITY (6) is a model of consistency without winning, and she went within a whisker of winning at Maryborough last start when able to lead. She’s in the mix again, albeit from a sticky draw.
MUDDY (5) has been freshened with a trial since his debut second at this track, where he was able to map well from a tricky draw and performed well. He has decent ability and is worth respecting on what he’s shown. Then we have the two first starting 3yos, COASTAL ELEGANCE (3) and ULTIMATE GRANGE (7), who have trialled okay but would need a significant market push to consider as winning chances.
BACK: CORBIE LAIDIR (2) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: CORBIE LAIDIR (2), TOUCH OF REALITY (6), MUDDY (5), ULTIMATE GRANGE (7)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: HEZ HARRYWHO (8) is awkwardly drawn but well graded and gets Herbertson, which is a factor in a very even race. The pair combined for victory when together three starts back at this track in decent time, when mapping on the peg line. He will need the breaks at the right time but has upside.
MAMMALS REASON (6) is in terrific form, racing tough in similar company to this. She’s won three of her last five, so even though this map is tricky, she warrants respect. ALTA BAYAMO (5) was a very good winner here two starts back when able to lead, then was very disappointing last time when appearing to have every chance. He does return to the front row, so perhaps that’s a positive. ELLEEGANT LANE (3) had been racing consistently before turning in a terrific performance to win at Melton by a space, albeit against easier opposition. It’s not an easy race and is a wide Quaddie leg, as you can make a case for a few, including HIGHVIEW HAMMER (2), TOTALLY STUNNING and HELLOVASTORY.
SELECTIONS: HEZ HARRYWHO (8), MAMMALS REASON (6), ALTA BAYAMO (5), ELLEEGANT LANE (3)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: FEEL THE REIGN (8) seems well placed as the winningest horse in this race, and his last couple of runs have been encouraging. These concession-driver races often rotate the same horses, so he looks to bring different form. He races well when he can come with one burst, so if he gets the breaks, he can flash late.
OUR MYSTERY BET (6) continues to race well and is also performing better on the clock sectionally; he just doesn’t seem to crack it for a win. This race does appear suitable and, with the right run, he will be tough in the finish. THE IRISHMAN (1) was a good winner here four starts back when sitting parked and was too strong for his rivals, albeit in easier grade. He should get a good map and give plenty of cheek. REGAL ROCK (5) can show speed from this draw and is a winner at this track when finding the top. He hasn’t saluted since February, but if he gets the right passage he could improve.
SELECTIONS: FEEL THE REIGN (8), OUR MYSTERY BET (6), THE IRISHMAN (1), REGAL ROCK (5)
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: NEDS BEACH (2) has been racing fairly in SA lately and gets a favourable draw to map well, with Herbertson jumping aboard. His win five starts back would be good enough to measure up here in what looks a tricky and even bunch of horses.
BETTERTHANABOUGHTONE (3) was able to win at this track back in January and beat some of these on that occasion. She has a consistent SP profile and her map gives her a solid winning chance. MISS HERMES (6) can be a little hard to catch, being a winner in an easier race at Leeton two starts back but not quite living up to market expectations around that. Her best performance gives her a strong winning hope. KNOW THE SCORE (5) is a quick beginner and led all the way to win four starts back, which was his best performance this season. A positive map increases his chances.
SELECTIONS: NEDS BEACH (2), BETTERTHANABOUGHTONE (3), MISS HERMES (6), KNOW THE SCORE (5)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R3 #9 ALTO CORRAGIO – 3 units (win)
R4 #4 MAJESTIC MONARCH – 1.5 units (win)
R5 #9 FINAL BOW – 3.5 units (win)
R6 #2 CORBIE LAIDIR – 2 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
3,4,5,6,8/1,2,6,7,8,9,10/4,9/2,3,4,10
QUADDIE
9/2,5,6/2,3,5,6,7,8,9/1,5,6,8
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licenced bookmaker.
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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