Ryan Phelan takes a look at tonight’s 9-race card at Ballarat.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: ALLGOOD VINNIE (7) has delivered some good performances over the past month, whether driven with a sit or in front. He beat home many of these in a good form reference two back when pressured a long way out. He gets no favours with the draw and potential map, but his times are superior to most for him to storm home late.
LAZENBY (6) over raced and dropped out last time, but his two wins prior showed he was progressing nicely, so don’t underestimate him here. TOPHUT JOHNY (9) punches through behind a bunch of horses who normally like to lead, so he can benefit from that burn in what could be a moderate last quarter. HOME AND DRY (5) will be part of the early speed battle, and whilst he may find the map a challenge, is going well.
BACK: ALLGOOD VINNIE (7) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ALLGOOD VINNIE (7), LAZENBY (6), TOPHUT JOHNY (9), HOME AND DRY (5)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: LOWER WEST SIDE (1) has shown promise in four career starts, and this looks like her most suitable set-up to break through for her maiden victory. She appears the leader from the draw over the short trip, and he main rivals are drawn poorly off the back row to get a decent time of it in front.
BETTING ATTACK (9) was well supported when resuming on the back of a couple of good winning trials. Fitness told in the last bit there, but he should come on from that and warrants consideration. FIVE CENT (10) has been solid his past few runs, doing work and sticking on quite well. The draw insists he may have to do that again, but he is improving. OPERTSER (8) draws to get leaders back and hasn’t had things to suit his past couple. He’s still learning what it’s about, but the soft draw helps.
BACK: LOWER WEST SIDE (1) – 1 unit (win)
SELECTIONS: LOWER WEST SIDE (1), BETTING ATTACK (9), FIVE CENT (10), OPERTSER (8)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: SENNA STORM (6) drops back to a suitable grade here after some solid performances, albeit from better draws to race handy. He has very good gate speed to look for the top, and if he finds that desired position will take catching.
JANIEBQUICK (9) is an honest mare who has been racing well from more favourable draws but can still map ok despite the backrow. If she gets the right trail can be strong late. BREATHE EASY (10) is always thereabouts in these types of races, it often comes down to the right tempo for him to sweep into it. He’s a veteran who always tries. OUR TRUE COLOURS (1) doesn’t have brilliant gate speed but can be afforded a soft enough run to be strong late if the breaks come.
BACK: SENNA STORM (6) – 1 unit (win)
SELECTIONS: SENNA STORM (6), JANIEBQUICK (9), BREATHE EASY (10), OUR TRUE COLOURS (1)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: ARTIGAS (6) is first-up since October last year where he stepped up in class in the Victoria Trotters Derby where he got it wrong. Last prep when he trotted safely, he was always a threat, winning well three back. He’s had a nice trial into this and hopefully has matured to put his best hoof forward.
KAMARAN (9) has shown improved form this season, winning three from his past four runs, under both stand and mobile conditions. The draw is tricky here, but what he’s showing is positive. BAR TAB (12) was a good winner three back but has broken in running her past couple and has gone back to the trials. If she brings her manners, she’s a threat. BUSLIN BRODY (5) is a veteran who’s found some form, and despite this being slightly harder can afford to be positive and be in the mix again.
BACK: ARTIGAS (6) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ARTIGAS (6), KAMARAN (9), BAR TAB (12), BUSLIN BRODY (5)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: TENSION SEEKER (1) is a 13-yo mare who doesn’t win out of turn, but she gets the set-up for her favoured racing pattern here from the inside draw. The last time she was at this track in November she won from the same draw and has got up at decent odds when she has found the front over shorter trips which she gets here. She will give cheek at big odds.
CHRISTMAS BABE (8) normally likes to lead, and she won’t get that opportunity here, however the soft peg line draw in this type of company is suitable. SONNYBOY (9) has found some form over the past month and should map ok to be strong late. CHAMPAGNES (7) will almost certainly find market support with Herbertson aboard, but she goes from barrier 1 to 7 which doesn’t help her chances.
BACK: TENSION SEEKER (1) – 1 unit (win)
SELECTIONS: TENSION SEEKER (1), CHRISTMAS BABE (8), SONNYBOY (9), CHAMPAGNES (7)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: DOT BALL (6) finds her most suitable race in quite some time and gets the opportunity to press forward from this draw against moderate opposition. If she finds the top, she becomes the one to beat.
SKYZ ABOVE (9) caused a major upset two runs back winning at 100-1, but in fairness she won easily and deserved it. She backed it up again with a fair 5th last time and this doesn’t present much harder. BLISSFULL LILLY (3) has been going ok this time in at Cranbourne, finding the line well her past couple. If she can map ok from this draw can be in the finish. EL AWOMAN (2) draws softly and has been better her past couple, but overall strike rate isn’t overly engaging.
SELECTIONS: DOT BALL (6), SKYZ ABOVE (9), BLISSFULL LILLY (3), EL AWOMAN (2)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: ROMANTIC NINA (3) caught the eye last start, coming from well back at Bendigo two back, maintaining a strong effort to the line. She was good again last week from a terrible draw. Things look much more favourable from this position to get a deserved win.
KARBINE (2) beat her home last time, and he’s similar in that he’s rarely had luck with draws, so from here he looks the testing material again. THE SKY IS THE LIMIT (8) will appreciate the drop back in grade and just had to do too much work last time. Her form prior was quite solid. WATTS UP THE HILL (5) is first-up but has trialled ok and stays under notice on the score he raced well last prep and is from an astute stable.
BACK: ROMANTIC NINA (3) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ROMANTIC NINA (3), KARBINE (2), THE SKY IS THE LIMIT (8), WATTS UP THE HILL (5)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: FREMARKS PEGGY (2) draws softly with good speed around her to map for a nice trail. Her recent form has been solid either up in grade or from unsuitable set ups so expect sharp improvement here.
AI SEDHAI (3) can begin well from the mobile and will have a look for the lead here. She’s best when she can roll along as she like as evidenced three back when she won. ALLWHATFUNJINGLES (1) has been sound this campaign, particularly when he’s able to map handy on speed which he appears likely to do here. WHATS THE TEA (7) has been racing in consistent form but this draw presents as a challenge.
SELECTIONS: FREMARKS PEGGY (2), AI SEDHAI (3), ALLWHATFUNJINGLES (1), WHATS THE TEA (7)
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: This is a race which presents as a challenge, with none of the runners winning at the very least since November last year, some in many years, some not at all. ONAWINGANDAPRAYER (6) brings a different edge, having her first run for the new stable and trialling fairly into this. Any market push would add to the confidence levels.
ALDEBARAN MAVERICK (7) is the most recent winner in the field, and when he trots soundly and races forward runs his best races. NEDZA THRILLER (3) is a 68-start maiden but has run some decent races this prep and may map ok. JUNGLE SPIDER (2) can show gate speed and race forward which can prove advantageous against this line-up.
SELECTIONS: ONAWINGANDAPRAYER (6), ALDEBARAN MAVERICK (7), NEDZA THRILLER (3), JUNGLE SPIDER (2)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R1 #7 ALLGOOD VINNIE – 2 units (win)
R2 #1 LOWER WEST SIDE – 1 unit (win)
R3 #6 SENNA STORM – 1 unit (win)
R4 #6 ARTIGAS – 2.5 units (win)
R5 #1 TENSION SEEKER – 1 unit (win)
R7 #3 ROMANTIC NINA – 2.5 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
4,5,6,7,9/1,8,9,10,11,12/1,6,9,10/6,9
QUADDIE
1,7,8,9/1,2,3,6,9/2,3,8/1,2,3,5,7
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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