Ryan Phelan has done the form for tonight’s card at Shepparton.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: MAJOR ORION (5) has been good in his runs for the Douglas stable, performing well from tricky draws and set-ups. He attempted to lead here last week unsuccessfully and sat parked thereafter in quick time for this grade. The map looks more favourable to cross to the pegs this time and find the top, and from there he’ll take plenty of catching.
ELIZAJANE (7) has been racing well this season and, despite the wide draw, is likely to press forward over the short trip. Whether she has the speed to lead is questionable, but even if she sits parked, she is well placed and can hang tough. WICKED MITZI (8) isn’t in great numerical form but gets a soft run from the back row here, and with Herbertson booked becomes a blowout hope if the breaks come. INTERPRETATION (9) drops in grade, and the Dembe form he’s been exposed to over his past couple of runs looks to be decent form. He was forced to sit parked last week and may be better coming with one run if the pace is right.
BACK: MAJOR ORION (5) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: MAJOR ORION (5), ELIZAJANE (7), WICKED MITZI (8), INTERPRETATION (9)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: A standing start for the trotters here over the middle distance, which often makes it difficult for the backmarkers. However, the front-row brigade isn’t going all that well. STRAIGHT TO THETOP (7) loves the standing-start conditions and was a winner at this track and distance, from the same handicap, back in August against a similar line-up. She turned in a good run last week behind a smart one, and with the right run in transit can be strong late.
KENNYS SON (9) is off a 30m handicap, but in his favour are sound standing-start manners and a win at this track. He was a winner here under mobile conditions two back, but the concern is that he broke in running either side of that. WATCH AND ACT (8) is the most reliable under these conditions, with 10 of his 14 wins coming from the tapes. He hasn’t won in 20 tries this season, however, but his manners will carry him a long way. KYVALLEY MISTY (3) gets the front-row advantage and has been okay from the stand in the past, but her run last start at Melton was not up to scratch. She was a winner in an easier race three back and gets Alford, so she’s worth keeping safe if you can overlook her last start. MASSIF CENTRAL (4) has only had the one standing start and, although beaten a long way, was quick away from the tapes. He’s a horse who likes to lead, but normally over the mile. He’s winless from 33 attempts at this distance but has place claims.
BACK: STRAIGHT TO THETOP (7) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: STRAIGHT TO THETOP (7), KENNYS SON (9), WATCH AND ACT (8), KYVALLEY MISTY (3)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: Tricky affair with little exposed form to draw upon with confidence. MYSTIC MOVER (7) is the exception to that observation, having placed in 3 of 5 starts, including a good 2nd last start at Kilmore behind an in-form winner. The gate is no spoil, but over the short trip and against an apparent lack of opposition, she may be obliged to press forward and give herself every chance.
SON OF A BROAD (11) did plenty of work first up, but that’s normally the way he races and, to be fair, a bit more was expected. He does have a very in-form stable and driver, so be prepared to forgive last time and expect him to put his best foot forward here. Then there are a few runners who are a market watch and require a bit of guesswork. HOLLOW LOG (6) is an emergency and, interestingly, a well-bred 7yo first starter. He’s only had the one trial and showed great gate speed to finish 3rd, which was okay. He should be considered if he gets a run and is a market watch. ITS JUST RUBY (5) joins the Paul Tonkin stable, which often improves this type of horse fresh, so although the form isn’t there and she’s first up without a trial, she must be kept safe. The two stablemates, TAMALIA (2), who galloped away on debut, and EVA EXPRESS (3), haven’t done too much at the trials, but in fairness they were against better-rated types, and this stable is worth respecting.
SELECTIONS: MYSTIC MOVER (7), SON OF A BROAD (11), HOLLOW LOG (6), ITS JUST RUBY (5)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: MAJOR DRAMA (7) has been turning in some decent runs for the new stable, and she hasn’t had the best set-ups to put her best on display. She gets no favours with the draw, but this looks to be her most winnable race, dropping in class and looking well placed with the claim of in-form junior driver Blake Pace. She will need luck in running, but her second-last run was good enough to expect improvement.
MADAM REACTOR (6) gets back to a more suitable grade, with some acceptable performances against tougher company. The map may be a bit sticky, but she looks well graded. PIRANI PERFECT (2) is a 3yo filly having her first run for the Rebecca Bartley stable, which deserves respect at its home track. She was a trial winner here recently and, from the positive draw, can race in a nice position. Her race form isn’t great, but any market push warrants attention. ROCK POSTER (4) is an honest mare who’s enjoying a solid season. She’s second up from a break and was good last time out when 3rd in the same race as the top pick. A positive draw helps her chances. It’s hard to know what to make of MIKIS PLEASURE (8) on current form, but she has won 3 from 12 starts, albeit with her best form coming a couple of years back. She’s had plenty of trials and is worth keeping safe for multiples.
SELECTIONS: MAJOR DRAMA (7), MADAM REACTOR (6), PIRANI PERFECT (2), ROCK POSTER (4)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: IMAWINGATE (5) is back to the grade he races best in, and his last victory in July came in similar grade with Herbertson aboard. He can slide forward alongside the likely leader and potentially find a good map. He’s a 10-time winner from 33 tries here, which is a much stronger record than many of these can boast.
TREACHEROUSTIMES (4) looks the likely leader in the race and does race best from that position. He’s limited with the times he’s capable of, so if he gets control of the race, he will take some catching. BLUE CANNON (3) is an interesting runner, given that he’s been rough in his action this campaign, which is surprising for a horse of his experience. His best form has him well in this, so he’s worth keeping safe if he does everything right. Worth noting at the minor end are KRAKEY (6), ZEUSS (7) and MISTER RAUDONIKIS (8), who have drawn awkwardly and have been going fairly but would need to improve significantly to win.
BACK: IMAWINGATE (5) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: IMAWINGATE (5), TREACHEROUSTIMES (4), BLUE CANNON (3), KRAKEY (6)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: MELICAN (8) looks to be a 2yo filly going places, unbeaten in two race starts, the most recent of which saw her bolt in when able to lead. She goes to the back row now, but without a horse drawn outside her, she can map in a striking position. This is a tougher race and set-up, but hopefully that means a better price to play, as she looks the one to beat again.
CRACKIN PHILTRA (5) is fresh up from a break off a couple of good trials and was good last preparation, winning before the spell in decent time. The trainer/driver combination deserves respect and should get the right map to have every chance. OZZIE TART (3) finished in the quinella behind the top pick last time but was beaten a long way. She has very good gate speed to get a good map and be a chance again. MAJOR FRIEND (6) was a good winner here last week in an easier race from a back-row draw. That performance keeps her in the mix, but this is a step up. THE KING OFTHEROAD (7) is first up and was racing well before a break. This draw and the quality of opposition mean a bit needs to go his way, so place claims look best.
BACK: MELICAN (8) – 3.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: MELICAN (8), CRACKIN PHILTRA (5), OZZIE TART (3), MAJOR FRIEND (6)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: YELLA (6) drops in grade for this and was good last week from a bad draw, where he drifted back to last and made good ground late. He can show speed, but it’s hard to know how the map plays out here. He’s going well enough to win again but will need luck in running.
SHEZABLUECHIP (4) has a good strike rate at this track, with 50% of her wins coming here. She can show gate speed from this draw and be driven assertively to look for the front. She was a winner when on the peg line two back. ICANMOTOR (3) has been getting some ace steers from Jordy Leedham, but he just can’t seem to crack it for a win, although he has still been consistent. He can look to cross to the pegs and have options from there. JOEYS HANGOVER (5) didn’t have much luck here last week when dropping back to last after being caught wide. His runs have been sound this time in, and he has claims again. QUEENHIGH FLUSH (7) looks the only other hope for the Quaddie, and while she has ability and can give a good sight, the draw hurts.
SELECTIONS: YELLA (6), SHEZABLUECHIP (4), ICANMOTOR (3), JOEYS HANGOVER (5)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: OZZIE DIAMOND (8) is a 2yo filly giving away experience here, but she’s been good in her career so far, performing well in the Vicbred Series, and was a solid winner last time out at Kilmore, albeit from a better draw when she was able to map well. The claim gets her in well on the ratings scale, and if the tempo is solid enough, she can be strong late.
LAVADA GOLD (2) was better last time out at Cranbourne when 2nd from a bad draw, finding the line strongly late along the inside. A better draw now and a repeat of that last run have him well in it. TASTE IT (4) has two wins and four minor placings from 19 starts this season. Glenn Bull gets a workable gate, and the horse has enough demonstrated ability for this type of grade. MISS PIGGY WIGGY (7) has three wins this season and a faster best mile rate, but gate seven makes the map challenging to overcome. Her best form warrants respect at this level, however.
SELECTIONS: OZZIE DIAMOND (8), LAVADA GOLD (2), TASTE IT (4), MISS PIGGY WIGGY (7)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R1 #5 MAJOR ORION – 2 units (win)
R2 #7 STRAIGHT TO THETOP – 2 units (win)
R5 #5 IMAWINGATE – 2.5 units (win)
R6 #8 MELICAN – 3.5 unit (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
5,7,8/3,7,8,9/2,3,5,6(?),7,11/2,4,6,7
QUADDIE
3,4,5/5,8/3,4,5,6,7/2,4,7,8
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer-generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licensed bookmaker.
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