Ryan Phelan has the tips and strategy for tonight’s meeting at Melton Entertainment Park.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: RUDY GEE (3) is the starting point here, being a very quick beginner who looks the likely leader and should be able to hold on over the short trip. He’s won four of his last five in NSW, running good times, albeit against easier opposition than he faces here. His map advantage over some key rivals is a major factor in leaning his way, despite not boasting the strongest record at this track.
JILLIBY SNIPER (6) won under similar conditions here last week, but that was an easier field, and he was able to find the top, which is unlikely to happen here. He’s won five from eight this season and is a talented 3yo, but this is a new challenge. ANGELS WATCHING (1) looks to get the right draw to map behind the leader, but it’s worth noting he is back in the draw after breaking at the start four runs back when a winner. It’s a quality race, with KATUNGA EXPRESS (2), NEATNTIDY (5), STEEL THE MOMENT (9) and PISTOL PEARCE (12) all having chances at the minor end with the right run.
BACK: RUDY GEE (3) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: RUDY GEE (3), JILLIBY SNIPER (6), ANGELS WATCHING (1), KATUNGA EXPRESS (2)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: COLOSSAL HOPE (2) has been racing well without winning this preparation and now gets a good set-up to get back on top of the podium. He’s a very quick beginner, as evidenced when he was able to cross from the outside last time out when racing several of the opposition here. James Herbertson is an important driver booking to get the best out of him with an ideal draw and map.
PICK UP ELVIS (9) was a winner last start, beating a quality field, and was terrific prior when racing the elite 4yos in the Vicbred Series. He trails through behind the top pick and has beaten that horse previously. KEAYANG VIPER (10) is quite simply a winner, with seven victories from nine starts, but as good as she is, this race sets up a little differently. The market took her on here last week, but she was able to get a good trail through and prove too strong, whereas she’s unlikely to get the same trip now. OLLIES THE BOSS (8) has an awkward draw to overcome but is racing well for the in-form stable. He will be driven for luck but will be strong late. TOORAM MAGIC (4), KOMODO (5) and ALL BLAZING GUNS (6) will need luck but are all in with a show.
SELECTIONS: COLOSSAL HOPE (2), PICK UP ELVIS (9), KEAYANG VIPER (10), OLLIES THE BOSS (8)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: A very speedy front line here, with virtually the entire front row normally liking to lead or race on the speed. That may suit NEW SHUFFLE (9), who is a sit-and-sprint type who excels when coming with one run off a fast tempo. He’s well in with the concession claim and comes off a brief freshen-up following an excellent 4th in the Geelong Cup, where he found the line strongly. His overall record is very strong for a race of this nature.
SEATHESTARS (3) looked like he was getting back to his best in his victory last week when he was able to lead all the way. It’s uncertain how the map works out this time, but I’m happy to have him in the numbers, as his best is good enough. FAIRPLAY (7) is racing well this season, with five wins from six starts, but has drawn to map better on those occasions. He has talent, so despite a few things needing to work out, he can’t be dismissed. SCHWARZ (2) had to work too hard last time, but from a better marble could get a nicer trip depending on tactics. JACCKA EVAN (6) won that race but is likely to go back, while stablemates BLAKE BOLAC (5) and ALWAYS BE BLAKEY (8) will need a lot to go their way but are racing well.
BACK: NEW SHUFFLE (9) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: NEW SHUFFLE (9), SEATHESTARS (3), FAIRPLAY (7), SCHWARZ (2)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: ENJOY LIFE (9) is a high-quality 3yo who comes through the A-grade form lines, including the Derby last start, where he travelled keenly behind the leader, who fell back into his lap, costing him all momentum before finishing not far away in 6th. His form prior was first-rate, albeit from better draws where he was able to dictate. He won’t have that luxury now but can deliver a high-speed finish to overcome them.
SEASIDE BOY (4) gets a better draw and actually beat home the top pick in the Derby, where he had to go back and worked home well. From this more favourable marble, expect a more aggressive drive, and he could prove hard to run down, particularly if he finds the lead. DECODE (2) will have something to say about the speed map and has been terrific this season. He’s unfortunate not to have a better record, having faced some bad draws in major races. He was okay in the Derby, but with the others outperforming him there, that dampens confidence slightly. MOST EXCITING (8) has mixed his form a little this season, but more often that’s been because of taking on the elite 3yos. He can only be driven for luck from this draw but will be strong late if the gaps come. There’s not a runner who would surprise at the minor end for exotics.
BACK: ENJOY LIFE (9) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ENJOY LIFE (9), SEASIDE BOY (4), DECODE (2), MOST EXCITING (8)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: BULLETPROOF BOY (8) comes out of the Victoria Cup, where he had every chance and was fair in finishing 5th. Prior to that, he was terrific in winning the Smoken Up Sprint, but that was over his preferred distance. Even if he may not be at his elite best this preparation, he does bring the A-grade form to be the testing material at this level of FFA.
JILLIBY NITRO (6) was terrific in winning the Geelong Cup two starts back at only his second run from a break. He then had a terrible draw and set-up in the Victoria Cup, so forget he went around. He has the tactical advantage of the three topliners here and has the versatility to command respect.
CATCH A WAVE (7) may be obliged to press forward here, as he has done from the same draw recently, winning on one of those occasions, albeit over the shorter trip. He’s going okay, and as an eight-time G1 winner, he can never be dismissed. SIR JIMMY (3) needs to come with one run, and he probably hasn’t had much luck getting things to work out of late. He will enjoy this level of FFA, though, and is in the mix. COASTAL DRIVE (1) has been racing well and will look to use the draw to his advantage. It’s just whether he’s up to these over the trip.
SELECTIONS: BULLETPROOF BOY (8), JILLIBY NITRO (6), CATCH A WAVE (7), SIR JIMMY (3)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: The scratching of Twigstar has really changed the complexion of this race, as she would have led with the opposition happy to sit off her speed. Now it creates a bit of uncertainty with the map, and the major rival CATCH THE CAPTAIN (9) may be forced to put himself in the race from the back row. He was good on debut, so whilst the set-up looks a little different for him this time, he’s worth sticking with.
FARADAY (5) did what she had to do winning on debut and wasn’t breathtaking in that victory as a $1.18 favourite in a small field. She is from the top stable, however, so you can only expect improvement from that effort. DREAMS FOREVER (2) hasn’t been the punters’ pal, going down as a short-priced favourite in her last two, but did show ability in some earlier performances, while OZZIE TART (1) can use her speed to get a nice map and looks the other major player at the minor end.
SELECTIONS: CATCH THE CAPTAIN (9), FARADAY (5), DREAMS FOREVER (2), OZZIE TART (1)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: SEA FURY (9) was flying earlier in the year, but his last few runs haven’t been up to that standard, at least numerically, as you could make a few small excuses. This is the most winnable race he’s been in for a while, and the tick-over trial was good enough to suggest he’s on track. He can bounce back against these.
IM DOWNBYTHESEASIDE (6) was a good winner when able to lead from the same draw last campaign and looked to be progressing well, getting up in class quickly. This race looks much more suitable than his first-up assignment, and with added fitness, he will be hard to beat. WHERE IS WOODY (7) switches to one of Victoria’s leading stables, and while the draw is no luxury, he’s normally a one-run type, so may drift back and, with the right tempo, finish well. POPCORNFRIDAY (1) and BRINGUSJOY (2) would look for the lead but would need little pressure thereafter, while FIRE MARSHALL (8) is dependent on how that all works out in front of him. They’re all worth keeping safe.
BACK: SEA FURY (9) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: SEA FURY (9), IM DOWNBYTHESEASIDE (6), WHERE IS WOODY (7), POPCORNFRIDAY (1)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: LOWRIDER (6) is the testing material here from the leading stable, coming out of stronger 3yo races, albeit safely held in those. He failed when taking on the older horses five runs back, but that seemed harder than what he faces here. He’s likely to start very short odds on a few key indicators, but to the eye, he’s not the most reliable type, so tread warily.
BULLETPROOF KID (5) is a fast beginner who finds a much more suitable race than what he’s been facing recently. His numerical form disguises his ability, and he can give cheek in this if he’s able to get the right trip. SRIRACHA (2) can begin well enough from the draw to take up a handy position here, and although he’s up in class, he may have more ability than most. His one win here came as a 2yo.
POSTERIZED (9) will have to be driven for luck from this draw, but if he happens to get a soft run and favourable sectionals to close, he’ll be doing his best work late. OWEN THE SAINTS (8) seems the other main hope for the exotics but is yet to place from six attempts here.
SELECTIONS: LOWRIDER (6), BULLETPROOF KID (5), SRIRACHA (2), POSTERIZED (9)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R1 #3 RUDY GEE – 2 units (win)
R3 #9 NEW SHUFFLE – 3 units (win)
R4 #9 ENJOY LIFE – 3 units (win)
R6 #4 TWIGSTAR – 3 units (win)
R7 #9 SEA FURY – 2 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
1,3,6/2,9,10/3,7,9/2,4,9
QUADDIE
3,6,7,8/2,5,9/1,6,7,9/5,6
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer-generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licensed bookmaker.
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
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