Ryan Phelan has your tips and Quaddies for a big 10-race card from Ballarat.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: Tough way to start proceedings at Ballarat with a wide-open maiden trot, but GREAT HORIZON (3) does look one of the closest to a win. Last week at Charlton, she settled behind the leader and ultimately finished second in a race five of these horses contested. It followed a good third – beaten just 4.6m – at Maryborough prior to that, and while she’s had 23 goes at trying to break through, this looks a suitable event. BROTHER THOMAS (4) ran well on debut in that same race, settling behind GREAT HORIZON (3) on the fence and then chasing her home for third. DELIGHTFUL REYNA (7) has a sticky gate but is racing well for Alison Alford and heads here on the back of a second placing to star two-year-old Phoenix Rex and a fourth at Shepparton last week. While THE TROUT COD (1) didn’t beat a runner home last start at Ballarat, he ran well first-up from a break and draws nicely in gate one. ALECTRONA (9) ran well for second while beating home DELIGHTFUL REYNA (7) last time and is next best.
SELECTIONS: GREAT HORIZON (3), BROTHER THOMAS (4), DELIGHTFUL REYNA (7), THE TROUT COD (1)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: RAPTA (1) hasn’t been seen at the trials since his one and only start as a three-year-old back in April, when he was well beaten by stablemate Zoolu. His two-year-old form was sound, however, with some close-up efforts in October and November before competing through the Vicbred Super Series heats and Group 1 final. He’s worth taking a chance on from the good draw in a very winnable maiden event where there’s not stacks of form to get excited about. UNCLE BILL (9) debuted in great fashion at Kilmore on August 13 with a second placing behind the handy Jet Plane while holding a big margin back to third. NO REPENTANCE (5) looks to have a good motor based on some powerful finales in her four-start career to date, and I fancy she has good ability. While BIG RAIN (3) was extremely disappointing behind Jet Plane last time, she has run several placings and has the gate speed to find the fence.
SELECTIONS: RAPTA (1), UNCLE BILL (9), NO REPENTANCE (5), BIG RAIN (3)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: Concession drivers race here where plenty have a chance, but I’ll side with the consistent KIMCHI (8), who has run well in this grade or slightly better races in recent weeks. He has led and been run down late in his last three starts but might be well suited off the back row in a clash where there could be plenty of tempo up top. He’s a 12-time winner and is sure to run well if the breaks come his way for Luke Sutherland. JUSTLIKEDAVE (10) looped the field and charged late to be beaten just 2.9m into third last start at Cranbourne in a terrific performance and is another that will be storming home. THE DEMOCRAT (5) won very impressively in easier grade here on July 29 and finished second either side of that at Albury, while ESPERANZA (1) has been defeated as a short-priced favourite a number of times but is still racing well and must be a chance from the pole draw.
SELECTIONS: KIMCHI (8), JUSTLIKEDAVE (10), THE DEMOCRAT (5), ESPERANZA (1)
Race 4:
CHAMPAGNES (9) was a red-hot favourite at Ballarat last week in a race three of these horses contested and she broke soon after the start to ruin her chances. Her form prior was very good with wins at Ballarat (twice) and Kilmore, split by a brave third when forced to do plenty of work in the chair. She’s no moral but deserves favouritism and looks hardest to beat. CALABASAS (6) has trialled well for her return and showed plenty of promise in her first racing campaign, which included two victories and concluded with a solid third in decent time at Bendigo through June. She might be the trotter on the rise and with the most scope. SILENT REVERIE (2) beat CHAMPAGNES (9) here on August 5 and was a shade unlucky when held up in the straight last time. She has good gate speed and can give a sight if she finds the top over 1710m. KISS AT MIDNIGHT (10) ruined her chances with breaks her past two but can improve sharply with a faultless display, while the well-drawn and honest NO TELLING HEATHER (1) and last-start winner BLACK AND GOLD (5) head a host of others that could win without completely surprising.
BACK: CHAMPAGNES (9) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: CHAMPAGNES (9), CALABASAS (6), SILENT REVERIE (2), KISS AT MIDNIGHT (10)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: BETTORSWEETVICTORY (6) could be open to improvement back to a suitable grade over the short trip here. She didn’t have much luck last time out, and her SP profile in the runs prior shows she’s popular with punters and often thereabouts, particularly with Herbertson aboard. She can slide across with the speed to her inside and return to winning form.
SPEEDY HEALEY (10) is first-up without a trial, but whilst he may lack fitness, he does find a winnable race based on his performances late last preparation. He has changed stables into this, so any betting moves should be respected. BLUE MIKI (8) has been racing well without winning and may find this opposition more to his liking. The draw is very tricky, however, and he will be reliant on luck and the breaks coming late. TOPHUT JOHNY (9) was better last time in running second, and whilst he gets a trailing draw, he does tend to run his best races in front.
SELECTIONS: BETTORSWEETVICTORY (6), SPEEDY HEALEY (10), BLUE MIKI (8), TOPHUT JOHNY (9)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: KISS ME MINI (3) returns to a suitable grade after facing very strong company at Melton, where she’s raced quite well, and last time was severely checked out of the race. The last time she raced here was in this grade, from this same draw, and she won in quick time, albeit saving ground along the pegs. There appears to be good speed around her, so she can map well and be within striking distance late.
KEAYANG PAYTON (7) has had her past six runs against quality opposition at Melton and will appreciate dropping back to the provincials. The last time she raced at this track she ran a good second in a strong form race. The draw is very sticky, though, over the short trip and she will need luck in running. SHAZZA LOVE (4) has early gate speed and will be hunting for a forward position over the short trip. She has a good strike rate at this track and does like the distance range, but her best form is in slightly easier grade. GOODTIME LIBBY (6) had a stint in NSW racing in strong mares’ company and acquitted herself well. She was well up in grade two starts back and was outclassed but was good last time in similar grade to this from the back row. She can improve sharply against this line-up. AMERICAN MICHI (8) is another worth keeping safe. The ability is there, and he didn’t have the best trip last time. HURRIKANE DUSTY (1) also has minor claims from the soft draw.
SELECTIONS: KISS ME MINI (3), KEAYANG PAYTON (7), SHAZZA LOVE (4), GOODTIME LIBBY (6)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: FOREGONE CONCLUSION (4) has really taken a shine to these concession driver races and, in the process, developed a good relationship with Grace Bilney, who’s won on him three times. He’s recorded another win and three seconds in his past seven starts and has enough tactical speed to put himself in a forward position against opposition he’s familiar with and go close again.
THEROUX (1) has a respected SP profile, starting favourite at his past five starts and winning three of them. Those victories came in easier company, but he was a winner under similar conditions three runs back, so warrants respect from the soft draw. MAXBECA (7) should be at peak fitness now third-up and looks well suited against this company based on what he’s faced this campaign. The draw is no luxury, however, likely being map-negative and leaving him reliant on a solid tempo, which rarely happens in these concession races. GUARANTEED TROUBLE (2) comes here second-up and bumped into an airborne horse at Geelong when third. He has good gate speed to look for the top spot here, and although he’ll have company for that position, he can improve. The chances don’t end there, with CALEDONIAN RANGER (5) a quick beginner who could give some cheek if able to lead, while MONSIEUR FLAMMEL (6) hasn’t been far away from bad draws lately, and if luck comes his way a win wouldn’t surprise.
SELECTIONS: FOREGONE CONCLUSION (4), THEROUX (1), MAXBECA (7), GUARANTEED TROUBLE (2)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: IM HAVINTOTROT (5) is a 3yo giving away experience and fitness to his rivals here, but from what we’ve seen to date, he has shown good ability against the top horses in his age group. He had a nice trial at Kilmore recently where he ran second, with the winner most impressive at Melton since. Whilst he’s drawn out wide, he does possess gate speed, with some of those to his inside normally taking a sit. If he happens to find the top, confidence will soar, but if not, his quality will carry him a long way.
ZARSKI (4) is having his second run for the new stable and was quite good first-up, where he found the line well late. He also raced against good-quality types in his age group as a 3yo and looks as though he can go on with it. SCAR (5) has found some decent form of late and is a grinding type who likes to be up on speed. His best results are often tempo-related, but he is in the mix. DOSSIER (3) is going better than her numerical form may suggest, and she’s worth including at what may be value for your exotics. OFF YOUR FACESKI (8) got things wrong at the start last time at Melton, hence being out of the draw. Although he was a winner prior, his best pattern is leading, so he has a task off the back row.
BACK: IM HAVINTOTROT (5) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: IM HAVINTOTROT (5), ZARSKI (4), SCAR (5), DOSSIER (3)
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: SAMBEZIA (4) was most impressive winning at Melton last start, where he showed terrific gate speed to lead from out wide and put a space on his opposition. His prior two runs had indicated a performance like that was on the cards, so that upward trajectory is a big factor. He can have the map advantage on his key rival drawn to his outside, and it should be a good battle down the straight.
RAMA SIAGO (5) is a 3yo having his fifth start for the powerful Lee camp, and this looks to be a more suitable assignment than his last start, where he led but bumped into a smart one and they beat the rest easily. Prior to that he was a winner by a big margin at Horsham, leading all the way. He can press forward from this draw, but whether he can find the top is the question. PIPALICIOUS (1) has displayed better manners at her past couple and, as a result, has produced winning form, leading all the way last start. This looks harder, but the soft draw gives her a knockout chance if the other two overcook things. I AM SKYE CHIOLA (8) has been much better over the past couple of months and has place claims, along with ROSE ALL DAY (3), who has tactical speed to map well.
BACK: SAMBEZIA (4) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: SAMBEZIA (4), RAMA SIAGO (5), PIPALICIOUS (1), I AM SKYE CHIOLA (8)
Race 10:
OVERVIEW: DANCE FIGHTER (2) broke his maiden late last season in the Homegrown series at Melton and was good in doing so. He bumped into a smart one when placed before going out for a break, and he’s had excuses in his two runs back this preparation from sticky draws. He will appreciate the low marble to press forward and map well, and with added fitness will take plenty of beating.
JUST ME AND YOU (7) won his maiden three starts back, and the horse he beat, Sambezia, is the top tip in the previous race, so that could prove a nice form line. After that, he got things wrong at the start and was placed out of the draw before finding the line well last time. This isn’t an overly strong line-up, and if he does everything right, he has more upside than most. I CHOOSE YOU (5) is an interesting runner from NSW. The stable must have an opinion of him, as they’ve often thrown him into top-quality races such as the Vicbred last year. He did win a trial at Penrith, and the road trip alone is enough to warrant respect. ARGYLE MUSE (1) will appreciate the soft draw and can map well enough to be a minor player.
BACK: DANCE FIGHTER (2) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: DANCE FIGHTER (2), JUST ME AND YOU (7), I CHOOSE YOU (5), ARGYLE MUSE (1)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R5 #9 CHAMPAGNES – 2.5 units (win)
R8 #5 IM HAVINTOTROT – 3 units (win)
R9 #4 SAMBEZIA – 2.5 units (win)
R10 #2 DANCE FIGHTER – 2 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
1,3,4,5,6,7/1,3,5,9/1,4,5,6,8,10/6,9
QUADDIE
6,8,10/3,4,6,7/1,2,4,5,6,7/4,5
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licenced bookmaker.
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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