Tim O’Connor has done the form for the November 14 meeting at Melton.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: Cracking edition of the $30,000 listed Casey Classic where I’ll side with one of the four Emma Stewart runners in FAIRPLAY (2). He’s lowly rated compared to some of his more seasoned rivals, but I just loved his determination to sit parked and win a good race in fast time at Melton on October 31 and I think he draws to find the top here. He’s a winner of six of seven starts this campaign, with the only miss being a death seat seventh in the Vicbred Super Series 4YO final when he endured a tough trip and faded late. JILLIBY NITRO (1) is a marvellous veteran who loves the staying trips, but will be effective drawn gate one over 2240m. He fronts up here following a good fifth to Ghost Of Time a fortnight ago when he closed nicely from the tail. YAMBUKIAN (4) was super second-up from a long break last weekend when just missing Fox Dan and his chances would grow significantly if he found the front, while BULLETPROOF BOY (10) finished fifth in that same race after settling at the rear. Others can win, including STORMS COLLIDE (6), who broke the Swan Hill track record last time out.
SELECTIONS: FAIRPLAY (2), JILLIBY NITRO (1), YAMBUKIAN (4), BULLETPROOF BOY (10)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: NEATNTIDY (9) has had the four runs back this campaign and I think she’s going really well despite only one win and some average figure form. Last time out, she settled back in the field in a race won by Jilliby Sniper and actually reeled off the best last half of 56.01 while being beaten 13.8m. Two runs prior, she looked close to a good thing beaten when unable to find clear in the straight behind Earl Of Pembroke. Hoping she lands handy in the running line from the good draw, and she should be hitting the line hard late. PISTOL PEARCE (2) looks the early leader if the emergency EMILY VINCENT (1) fails to gain a start and should run well from there over the sprint journey, STEEL THE MOMENT (5) was a very good second behind Jilliby Sniper last time and all his recent form is strong, while KOSIMO (8) might get the lovely run in transit behind PISTOL PEARCE (2) and is a capable pacer on his day. Other leading contenders are FIRE MARSHALL (6), TED (7) and CAPTAIN MOONLIGHT (11), but the gates are sticky.
SELECTIONS: NEATNTIDY (9), PISTOL PEARCE (2), STEEL THE MOMENT (5), KOSIMO (8)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: CARDIGAN DAN (8) looks set to run a short-priced favourite, but things are certainly complicated by his inside back row starting position. His last start was an uncharacteristically poor performance when leading and dropping out in a heat of the Victoria Derby, but he ran exceptionally well through the prior Vicbred Super Series, including second in the Group 1 final for three-year-old boys. With luck, he looks a little too smart for his rivals. The progressive DECODE (3) worked hard early, slotted in behind the leader and ran okay for sixth in a hot The Graduate last time out and the prior Kilmore win was very slick, HANDLER (1) is a horse I think is ready to win and has a good draw but perhaps finds a couple better here, while WHERE IS WOODY (2) has run two good races since joining the Andy Gath stable, including last weekend when second to Refusal. Other hopes include promising mare OUR SPECIAL MEMORY (9), EARL OF PEMBROKE (11) and the in-form EL LAZZAR (6), who has won four of six since joining the Lochie Cook stable but meets a harder test than recent assignments.
SELECTIONS: CARDIGAN DAN (8), DECODE (3), HANDLER (1), WHERE IS WOODY (2)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: CHARLESTON AVENUE (11) has a horror draw here over the 1720m trip, but this horse is flying and was the run of the race in an event five of these horses contested last weekend won by RAPID RETURN (1) from behind the leader, TIMMY TURTLE (8). CHARLESTON AVENUE (11) drew gate seven there, went back along the fence, got clear in the straight and charged into fourth to be beaten just 4.2m. The prior win at Maryborough was huge from outside the leader, and he just needs some tempo on up top to be giving this a real shake. KENNYS SON (4) is shooting for three on the trot after good victories at Melton and Maryborough and appears a chance of finding the top, ALDEBARAN SUE (10) backed up some good form with a barnstorming last-to-first victory last Saturday at HQ and is right in the zone, while WAIKARE ADRIENNA (1) creeps up in grade but has also won her past two in good style and draws for a lovely trip on the fence.
BACK: CHARLESTON AVENUE (11) – 1 unit (each-way)
SELECTIONS: CHARLESTON AVENUE (11), KENNYS SON (4), ALDEBARAN SUE (10), WAIKARE ADRIENNA (1)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: Looking to the Bill Collins Trotters Sprint and Maryborough Trotters Cup form here, with the top four picks all coming through those races in recent weeks. So much depends on manners and who steps to the top, but I’ll lean to LOVEMETO (3). He left the tapes well and led initially in this race back in February last year, then quickly went off stride for no apparent reason. He still did a good job to run third behind Keayang Chucky despite racing roughly late. He’s a very classy type who sat parked and finished second in the Bill Collins, and would be very hard to run down if he worked to the front. HOPPY (4) turned the tables on him with victory in the recent Maryborough Trotters Cup, where he ran past the other top three picks in this race to win in track record time. He’s a real newcomer to the free-for-all ranks, but he’s very progressive. IM BOBBY (6) led and boxed on well for second at Maryborough and can fly the tapes, while IMPERIAL MONARCH (7) and the first-up and lightly-raced CRACKERJACK (11) look the other key hopes in a great edition of the Australasian Trotting Championship.
SELECTIONS: LOVEMETO (3), HOPPY (4), IM BOBBY (6), IMPERIAL MONARCH (7)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: Group 1 Victoria Derby winner DYNAMITEDAN (12) fronts up here following his outstanding success in the time-honoured classic at Melton on October 17 and he’s awfully hard to oppose in this 70-79 content. The Emma Stewart-trained pacer turned in a great heat run before coming from well off the pace and scoring in the final at long odds. He’s only early into his preparation and the 2240m trip gives him time to work into the race from wide on the back row. OUR VINCENT CAN GOGH (4) looks a legitimate threat based off his recent form, which includes a really good second to potential superstar Bettor Beach last weekend in a personal last half of 53.74, which was actually quicker than that of the winner! Before that, he ran well in a race six of these contested when fourth to KOMODO (8), who had the dream cart up on stablemate PICK UP ELVIS (10). The latter might be able to turn the tables from what is perhaps a better draw and race shape here. Plenty of others can figure, headlined by THE NAKED ART (6), who returns from a two-start Tasmanian campaign where she was runner-up in both starts at Launceston and Hobart. Her prior form in Victoria was very good before the trek across Bass Strait.
BACK: OUR VINCENT CAN GOGH (4) – 3 units (place)
SELECTIONS: DYNAMITEDAN (12), OUR VINCENT CAN GOGH (4), PICK UP ELVIS (10), THE NAKED ART (6)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: Plain and simple, I think Lochie Cook and SEATHESTARS (1) need to hold out BROOKLYN DAN (2) at the start to win this event in what looks a great battle between the horses drawn gates one and two. SEATHESTARS (1) worked to the front at Melton on October 31 and was ultimately run down into third by the very smart Fairplay and New Shuffle, but did a great job to be beaten just 3.4m in fast time. I’m not sure he has the speed to out-dash BROOKLYN DAN (2) if he ended up behind that horse, but he’ll run well either way. BROOKLYN DAN (2) is a speed machine who led and faded in a hot Victoria Derby final last time out, but won a heat prior to that in a slick last half on the fence and is a very talented customer who would be close to home if he found the front. They look the two clear winning chances, with JUSTALITTLESIP (8) likely to get a nice run on the fence in what is set to be a sizzling last half, and ATA RANGI (9) another worth including for the back end of trifectas and First 4s as he returns from a South Australian Pacing Cup campaign where he finished fourth in the Group 3 final.
SELECTIONS: SEATHESTARS (1), BROOKLYN DAN (2), JUSTALITTLESIP (8), ATA RANGI (9)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: What a wide-open edition of the Sapling Stakes for two-year-old colts and geldings this is, with the early market reflecting how difficult and even this field appears. LOUS MAMBO (1) looks set for a nice trip on the fence after coming up with barrier one, and heads into this after scoring easily from the front at St Arnaud on the weekend. He sat parked through the last lap and ran a good race for third – beaten 3.8m – behind Ozzie Tart and CATCH THE CAPTAIN (2) before that and might be the value runner here at around $9 in early fixed odds betting. While he led and was left alone, WINCHESTER BOY (4) won so effortlessly and powerfully on debut at Cranbourne that he appears to have plenty of ability, CATCH THE CAPTAIN (2) won first-up at Melton on October 21 and found the top before being grabbed late in that aforementioned race, while BETTORBUST (7) brings two good Mildura wins and a narrow second to the smart Delizioso at Shepparton to the table. He makes the top four picks in a race where they could all win without surprising one little bit!
SELECTIONS: LOUS MAMBO (1), WINCHESTER BOY (4), CATCH THE CAPTAIN (2), BETTORBUST (7)
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: TWIGSTAR (2) is a very exciting prospect for trainer Scott Ewen and the daughter of Poster Boy goes in search of a fourth win in succession to start her career in the Sapling Stakes for two-year-old fillies. All three of her victories have been stunning, including a dominant front-running success last time out at Melton on October 23 when she led and rated 1:53.7 while winning by 11.9m. Her aggregate winning margin so far is 34m and I fancy she will add to that here. SPOOKY MOTH (1) is one of three Emma Stewart runners and two on debut here. She is a half-sister to the Group 1 winner Major Moth ($399,349) and is perhaps the most fancied of the team based off some nice enough trials and the good barrier one draw. Stablemate FARADY (6) galloped early and could only manage fifth in the Tatlow Stakes on October 31, a race which was won impressively by OZZIE TART (3), who ducked and weaved from three back the fence to score. The other on debut is NUDOORA (5), who is the least fancied of Stewart’s runners in early markets.
BACK: TWIGSTAR (2) – 5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: TWIGSTAR (2), SPOOKY MOTH (1), OZZIE TART (3), FARADY (6)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R4 #11 CHARLESTON AVENUE – 1 unit (each-way)
R6 #4 OUR VINCENT CAN GOGH – 3 units (place)
R9 #2 TWIGSTAR – 5 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
1,2,4,6,10/2,5,6,8,9,11/8/1,4,10,11
QUADDIE
3,4,6,7/4,10,12/1,2/1,2,4,7
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $101
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