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GOODFORM – TOC’s analysis for Melton on a Friday night

Tim O’Connor has done the form for nine races at Melton Entertainment Park on July 31.

Race 1:

OVERVIEW: Here’s a $14,000 final for heats run at Maryborough and Kilmore recently, and it shapes as a cracking contest to start the night at Victorian harness HQ. SOLOTREKK (1) lands gate one under the random barrier draw and he looks to have a super chance based off his two starts this campaign. He was a good winner first-up at Bendigo beating REVERAND BOB (2) and then charged home from back in the field in the Maryborough heat of this series, looking the winner before being grabbed in a photo by ITZ CLASSIC GOLD (5). REVERAND BOB (2) looks the likely leader and is running very consistently of late, ITZ CLASSIC GOLD (5) won the Maryborough heat and also beat the flying Champagnes before that, while talented youngster TIMMY WHIZ (10) made up really good ground for third in the Kilmore qualifier after making a break at the start first-up from a spell. MISTER DEVEREAUX (9) won that event and is the other key hope.

SELECTIONS: SOLOTREKK (1), REVERAND BOB (2), ITZ CLASSIC GOLD (5), TIMMY WHIZ (10)


Race 2:

OVERVIEW: Plenty of hopes here, but TEX GOES BANG (10) looks to be in really good form at present and shapes as a value runner here in race two. Last start, he drew bad, drifted to last and was a mile off them down the back, but produced the best last two quarters of the race to finish fourth behind tear-along leader War Zone. He sat parked and won tough at Cranbourne prior to that and should run well here given the likely early tempo. LENARD ESS (9) is a pretty consistent pacer who was only beaten 7.5m last week by Breathe Easy and chased hard for second to the handy The Final Dance prior to that, TALISKER SKIPPER (11) made an early break last start and didn’t have much luck when parked at Shepparton before that but some of the other recent runs have been encouraging, while AVEIRO (1) draws well and is always a chance in these types of races with a good trip. The chances don’t end there…

BACK: TEX GOES BANG (10) – 1 unit (each-way)

SELECTIONS: TEX GOES BANG (10), LENARD ESS (9), TALISKER SKIPPER (11), AVEIRO (1)


Race 3:

OVERVIEW: LITTLE MISS MORGAN (5) was a stunning winner from last first-up from a spell at Bendigo on July 1 and then made an early error as a $1.40 favourite at Shepparton in a race ultimately won by KIMBERLEYS TREE (4). She’s still learning what it’s all about and is hard to trust, but I think she’s more than handy and a faultless display will see her hard to beat. CENTURION DREAM (7) is racing in great form at present and was third in a much stronger race than this at Melton on Saturday night, DOSSIER (6) hasn’t had much go her way in recent times, and while she probably had her chance when third at Melton last Friday, is dangerous in this grade, while MANDA KYVALLEY (8) and SPIRITED LASS (9) – who was probably going to win before a late gallop last weekend – look the other key chances.

BACK: LITTLE MISS MORGAN (5) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: LITTLE MISS MORGAN (5), CENTURION DREAM (7), DOSSIER (6), MANDA KYVALLEY (8)


Race 4:

OVERVIEW: Hard to split a few of these, but trainer Ross Graham looks to have two of the key chances in AT THE DISTANCE (5) and AGAINST THE BRIDLE (2). AT THE DISTANCE (5) beat home his stablemate at Cranbourne when second last time out and before that did a power of work and still managed a runner-up placing at Shepparton. James Herbertson goes aboard here and that’s good enough for me in this wide-open event. AGAINST THE BRIDLE (2) should be able to work over to find the fence and that gives him a chance of figuring prominently, I’ve fancied STEADY DREAM (3) her last two as favourite, and while she’s let me down both times, she must have a chance again, while MAJESTIC CHARMA (10) can do plenty wrong but did win well two back at Cranbourne when trotting throughout.

SELECTIONS: AT THE DISTANCE (5), AGAINST THE BRIDLE (2), STEADY DREAM (3), MAJESTIC CHARMA (10)


Race 5:

OVERVIEW: INSIDER TRADING (5) might not be the most genuine pacer of all time, but I’ve got a bit of time for him and fancy he’s a great chance here if able to lead over the 1200m scamper. He ran really well through the Warragul Cup series and before that looked the winner in a similar grade race to this at Melton when beaten narrowly. THE FINAL DANCE (4) is the likely favourite and will be hard to beat from the Emma Stewart stable, where he has won two of three starts. ANGELS WATCHING (6) looked ready to strike last week at Ballarat but just couldn’t get clear in the home straight, and while not many win over the six furlongs from the wide front row draw, HIGHLANDHARTBREAKA (8) has good ability and finished third in a strong race at Melton on Saturday night. He can run over the top if the tempo is on.

BACK: INSIDER TRADING (5) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: INSIDER TRADING (5), THE FINAL DANCE (4), ANGELS WATCHING (6), HIGHLANDHARTBREAKA (8)


Race 6:

OVERVIEW: KITZBUHEL DELIGHT (2) ran well first-up from a break, making up big ground for fourth, before only being beaten 6.9m in a heat of the Warragul Pacing Cup from a tough gate. He drew awkward again last start, and while he didn’t finish off that race, gets a much better barrier here and looks a good chance, particularly if able to wrestle the lead off SKIPPYS DELIGHT (1), who was disappointing from the front last start at Stawell. JANIEBQUICK (6) was working up to a win which she got at Melton on July 10, and then actually ran pretty well when the map was against her at Geelong last time. She chased hard from back in the field and was only beaten 9.1m by Fiction File in a pretty quick time for this grade. She’s in good form and looks a key chance. Other major hopes appear to be ROSBERG (4) and SKIPPYS DELIGHT (1), but most runners have claims.

BACK: KITZBUHEL DELIGHT (2) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: KITZBUHEL DELIGHT (2), JANIEBQUICK (6), ROSBERG (4), SKIPPYS DELIGHT (1)


Race 7:

OVERVIEW: OFF YOUR FACESKI (2) has good gate speed and should give this a real shake if he’s able to find the top. He worked early but was forced to sit in the one-one last weekend at Melton, and still finished off well for a close-up fourth behind Skybella. Before that, he blundered the stand start at Stawell and did a great job to finish fourth – beaten 12.3m – by ROMANTIC NINA (6). He’s going well and I expect the all-orange colours will be in this for a long way. SAM NIEN (4) is a classy trotter who hasn’t been at his best his last two but certainly has the ability as a past Nutrien series winner, THE SKY IS THE LIMIT (3) is an honest mare who boxed on well for second last start behind Jack Sprat, while ROMANTIC NINA (6) won that recent race at Stawell when finding the top, but she often breaks under pressure so that is always a concern. JAYS ALL THAT (5) and FLOATING MOUNTAIN (1) are both first-up, and finished in that order in a recent trial at Bacchus Marsh.

BACK: OFF YOUR FACESKI (2) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: OFF YOUR FACESKI (2), SAM NIEN (4), THE SKY IS THE LIMIT (3), ROMANTIC NINA (6)


Race 8:

OVERVIEW: KARTIARE (7) is a get-back, run-on type who heads back to Melton after a start at Menangle where he made up good ground from last to finish fourth. Two runs ago, he settled on the back of HITTHEROADJACK (5) and ran straight past that horse before just missing in a photo to Big Sledge Hammer. He’s a talented horse who has six wins from 16 starts, and he looks well suited here in the small field. HITTHEROADJACK (5) had been out of form for some time, but his last two starts have been fantastic runner-up placings to Fairplay and Most Exciting. If he gets the front, which looks likely, he’s a huge player. PESCI (6) has been well held in two strong races to start the preparation and wouldn’t shock with the right trip, while FERRIGNO (3) might be next in line, but is perhaps a place hope more than a winning one.

SELECTIONS: KARTIARE (7), HITTHEROADJACK (5), PESCI (6), FERRIGNO (3)


Race 9:

OVERVIEW: VIVID DREAM (2) looks a nice prospect for the Joe Pace stable, and heads here after an effortless win as a short-priced favourite at Cranbourne on July 19. He led, controlled the race and darted home in a slick last half to prevail under minimal driving. Given how WAR ZONE (1) left the gate and pulled hard when winning from the at Melton last week, I’m not sure he gets the front, but he should get a lovely trip from gate two and is a major player. BAYSTYLE (5) made up really good ground from back in the field when a narrow second last Friday behind Breathe Easy and had some really good form before that, including a second to Comeandsee in the Ballarat Rising Star. Key chance. SHIFFRIN (7) worked hard to find the top and only faded late in her bid for a three-peat last time out, while WAR ZONE (1) scored at massive odds when running his rivals into the ground last Friday at Melton.

SELECTIONS: VIVID DREAM (2), BAYSTYLE (5), SHIFFRIN (7), WAR ZONE (1)


10-UNIT GAME PLAN

R2 #10 TEX GOES BANG – 1 unit (each-way)

R3 #5 LITTLE MISS MORGAN – 2 units (win)

R5 #5 INSIDER TRADING – 2 units (win)

R6 #2 KITZBUHEL DELIGHT – 2 units (win)

R7 #2 OFF YOUR FACESKI – 2 units (win)

EARLY QUADDIE

1,2,5,9,10/1,2,4,9,10,11/5,7/2,3,5,10

QUADDIE

4,5,6,8/1,2,4,6/2,3,4,6/5,6,7


For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au 

** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10

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