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GOODFORM – TOC’s City of Melton Plate night analysis

Tim O’Connor has done the form for the nine-race card tonight at Melton.

Race 1:

OVERVIEW: Stacks of chances in the opener and I don’t mind one that I think will start genuine each-way odds. His name is PRIORITISE (1) and he brings form from the Sunraysia to Melton. Last time out at Mildura, he worked very hard to find the front and still kicked late to only be beaten 1.4m by the handy Bizzness Class. He competed competitively through the Cup series before that, has good gate speed and should get a nice trip on the fence in a race that has pace aplenty off the front row. Small win, but bigger place play would be my suggested bet. MIGHTY JOLT (5) speared off the arm to lead and was only run down in the shadows of the post by Tara Victory in what was a great start for new trainer Dean Braun on March 28. Assume they’ll try for an all-the-way win here and he’s definitely capable of it. The other key hopes look to be ZANDA MAN (9), who won at Melton two back and was only narrowly denied by the smart Brooklyn Dan last weekend, and VINCENZO (11), who has another horrible gate to contend with, but will be steaming late if the tempo is hot.

SELECTIONS: PRIORITISE (1), MIGHTY JOLT (5), ZANDA MAN (9), VINCENZO (11)


Race 2:

OVERVIEW: MUSKEE (8) is becoming a real favourite of mine and my love for him grew with his brilliant first-up win at Bendigo on April 22. There, he sat parked throughout and charged away from his rivals to score in dominant fashion. It followed a great three-year-old season where he wasn’t too far off one of the stars of the sport in Mecarno. He has a sticky gate here, but with any luck he looks hard to beat. The other key winning hope is clearly CLAUDYS HERO (9). He was badly held up at Melton last weekend and charged late for third behind Heza Gun and Howdy Mate. He’s really in the zone at the moment and gets a lovely trailing draw. Fast beginner GEE CEE CALDER (3) is back from a trip to SA and is going well, while MAC FLICK (4) was trapped in the breeze last time and faded late, but her win prior was very good.

BACK: MUSKEE (8) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: MUSKEE (8), CLAUDYS HERO (9), GEE CEE CALDER (3), MAC FLICK (4)


Race 3:

OVERVIEW: BENNIE AND THE JETS (9) led and was run down by LITTLE YANKEE (5) a fortnight ago at Bendigo, but he’s favoured in this wide-open trot where they can just about all win. Bennie has been flying for Adam Rudd this preparation with two wins and a runner-up placing, and can turn the tables on his recent conqueror given that horse might not find the fence this time around. HEZA GUN (2) led, kicked and held off all rivals to win the Greg Sugars Always In Our Hearts Trot last week and that followed some really consistent form, IRON WOMEN (1) beat the aforementioned rival when she went all the way to win at Melton on April 10, and QUIRKY CHARACTER (7) loomed in that race won by LITTLE YANKEE (5), but went rough and ultimately galloped out of contention in the home straight. While his best is good, his form has perhaps just tapered off in recent starts. Other key hopes are LITTLE YANKEE (5) and Group 1 winner HILLTOP HUGH (3).

SELECTIONS: BENNIE AND THE JETS (9), HEZA GUN (2), IRON WOMEN (1), QUIRKY CHARACTER (7)


Race 4:

OVERVIEW: All eyes on the unbeaten KEAYANG RENEGADE (8) here as he looks to stretch his record to six starts for six wins. While he has an awkward draw, he looks a star on the rise and should be able to complete the perfect half-dozen. Last time out, he found the front and crushed a good field of rivals in slick time under minimal driving. He’s a gun and will progress to bigger and better things. Plenty of cases to be made for those to fill the minors, with FOLLOWTHEACE (9) nicely poised from a good back row draw and after a sound last-start effort when fourth to New Shuffle at Bendigo. THESTATESMAN (6) bounced back from a poor display with a good closing effort at Melton last time when he had the race-fastest last half despite covering plenty of extra ground behind Brooklyn Dan, while REPELLING (7) might carve across to find the lead and can run well if he’s successful in that early venture.

BACK: KEAYANG RENEGADE (8) – 4 units (win)

SELECTIONS: KEAYANG RENEGADE (8), FOLLOWTHEACE (9), THESTATESMAN (6), REPELLING (7)


Race 5:

OVERVIEW: The random barrier draw has come up nicely for GOTFEELINGSYOUKNOW (1), who has good gate speed and looks likely to either lead or settle leader’s back in this 1720m showdown. There doesn’t appear a great deal between this high-quality field of trotters, so I’m happy to play him each-way from the nice draw. Last time out, a fortnight ago at Bendigo in a race six of these horses contested, he settled in the 1×1 and never really got much clear air in the straight while being beaten 4.8m. KEAYANG STUKA (6) won that race after spearing to the front and controlling the tempo, but I’m not convinced he can cross to the fence this time around. REMUS PHOENIX (4) and LOVEMETO (7) ran great races there after coming three-wide for the last lap and loom as major players again, while the classy OLLIVICI (9) returns from a break here on the back of a few Melton trials.

BACK: GOTFEELINGSYOUKNOW (1) – 1 unit (each-way)

SELECTIONS: GOTFEELINGSYOUKNOW (1), REMUS PHOENIX (4), LOVEMETO (7), OLLIVICI (9)


Race 6:

OVERVIEW: Puzzling map for this year’s edition of The Stampede, with a number of potential early leaders over the flying 1200m trip. SOHO DARKNSTORMY (1) and TEN DA TOUCH (4) look likely to press forward, as does METEOR MOTH (6) from a little wider on the arm. Last time he drew the front, he was able to lead and win a good race at Melton and would be awfully hard to chase down if he worked to the top here. Last weekend, he peeled out from the 1×2 position and was narrowly beaten by a horse in form up the sprint lane. While MY ULTIMATE BARNEY (9) almost certainly won’t be finding the early lead, he is racing so well that he must be regarded as a winning chance. He worked forward and held off Fighter Command and Justalittlesip to win the Geelong Rocket last time out and looks a progressive horse for trainer Andy Gath. Stablemate SOHO DARKNSTORMY (1) chased home TEN DA TOUCH (4) last weekend, but can reverse that result given the draw, while SON OF MAC (3), last start 1200m winner OPERATIVE LINE (7) and TRIPLE EIGHT (10) are others with genuine claims.

SELECTIONS: METEOR MOTH (6), MY ULTIMATE BARNEY (9), SOHO DARKNSTORMY (1), TEN DA TOUCH (4)


Race 7:

OVERVIEW: What a cracking edition of the listed City of Melton Plate this is! FIGHTER COMMAND (5) has come back bigger and better this campaign, and tackles this race after a very brave second from the chair in the Geelong Rocket. He won impressively first-up and rattled home for second behind Bulletproot Boy following that. The step-up to 2240m suits and he’s good enough to round them up in the small field. HES FROM HEAVEN (3) resumes for Lisa Pitt and he’s absolutely trialled the house down twice at Shepparton for this, TAB Eureka champ BAY OF BISCAY (6) chased home Bulletproof Boy and FIGHTER COMMAND (5) from last first-up in a good return on April 4, but his task will be hard from gate six, while stablemate WAR DAN BUDDY (4) looked the winner before striking trouble in the Riverina Championships Final last time and is going well.

SELECTIONS: FIGHTER COMMAND (5), HES FROM HEAVEN (3), BAY OF BISCAY (6), WAR DAN BUDDY (4)


Race 8:

OVERVIEW: LAMBRO MACH (5) had been banging on the door to win a race and did so in grand style last Friday at Melton when he led, kicked strongly and scored by a good margin. He was bought for a decent price tag and while a little slow to get going at the Andy Gath barn, he’s finally starting to live up to his early hype. Last-start metro winner ISOLATION (7) is airborne for Patrick Tomkinson and looks a great chance despite the bad draw. Last weekend, he was involved in a sharp early lead time but still sprinted powerfully to beat a handy one in Lougle. KIA ORA BEAUTY (9) is going well and will be charging late, while JACKKA CONNOR (1) draws well and should be thereabouts in this grade.

BACK: LAMBRO MACH (5) – 1 unit (win)

SELECTIONS: LAMBRO MACH (5), ISOLATION (7), KIA ORA BEAUTY (9), JACCKA CONNOR (1)


Race 9:

OVERVIEW: HOORAH PHILTRA (4) has recently joined the Ashleigh Herbertson stable and impressed massively at the Melton trials on Tuesday with victory in a slick last half ahead of his first run for the barn. He has blistering gate speed and would be awfully hard to beat if he led, but can also win from the running line. MAAS BETTING AGAIN (3) has good early toe and Chris Alford might fancy trying for a repeat of her recent all-the-way wins at Bendigo and Echuca, FIRE MARSHALL (2) was dominant leading and winning at Charlton and Melton before excusable efforts his last two, while CEE CEE LOU (8) hasn’t enjoyed great trips in recent starts at Melton and might be able to run over the top if they overdo it in front. New South Wales raider SHADES OF MIKI (6) is an interesting runner and comes to Melton after a barnstorming second at Wagga when he rattled from last to just miss Scheming.

BACK: HOORAH PHILTRA (4) – 1 unit (win)

SELECTIONS: HOORAH PHILTRA (4), MAAS BETTING AGAIN (3), FIRE MARSHALL (2), CEE CEE LOU (8)


10-UNIT GAME PLAN

R2 #8 MUSKEE – 2 units (win)

R4 #8 KEAYANG RENEGADE – 4 units (win)

R5 #1 GOTFEELINGSYOUKNOW – 1 unit (each-way)

R8 #5 LAMBRO MACH – 1 unit (win)

R9 #4 HOORAH PHILTRA – 1 unit (win)

EARLY QUADDIE

1,5,9,11/3,4,8,9/1,2,3,5,7,9/8

QUADDIE

1,4,6,7,9/1,4,6,9/3,4,5,6/5,7,9


For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au 

** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10

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