Every Saturday, Ryan Phelan hunts for the most reliable locks to strengthen your multi bets. By analysing race maps, sectional times, and key trainer/driver combinations, he delivers sharp insights to add confidence – and a touch of excitement – to your harness racing, thoroughbred, or sports multis.
Each selection is rated with low, medium, or high confidence and includes a suggested place or win price. The goal? Minimise risk, maximise consistency, and stack the odds in your favour for a strong overall return.
Race 1 – 1720m – Hyland Racing Colours Smoken Up Sprint (Listed)
1/2 Fighter Command – Jason Lee/Jess Tubbs
A terrific edition of the Smoken Up Sprint – a lead-up to the Victoria Cup, won by Bulletproof Boy in 2 of the past 3 years. The barrier draw sets up for a two-horse betting duel between the in-form Fighter Command and Jason Grimson-trained NSW visitor Our Sunset Delight. Fighter Command is normally best served racing away from the pegs, which hands an advantage to Our Sunset Delight, who will look for the lead. Despite that map disadvantage, it’s hard to knock the speed and class of Fighter Command but he’s short enough.
Confidence: Medium Rated Win Price: $1.90
Race 2 – 2760m – Woodlands Stud Victoria Derby (1st Heat)
2/2 Cardigan Dan – Cameron Hart/Emma Stewart
Superb field for the first of three Derby heats. It’s hard not to be with the Emma Stewart barn in these races, and Cardigan Dan has been brave in top races this season, despite his numerical form not jumping off the page. He hasn’t had much luck with barrier draws, and from this draw has the options to find the right map. If he happens to lead and get control, he’s the one to catch.
Confidence: High Rated Win Price: $2.10
Race 3 – 2760m – Woodlands Stud Victoria Derby (2nd Heat)
3/1 Brooklyn Dan – Cameron Hart/Emma Stewart
Looks another tight market battle between Brooklyn Dan and Soho Trump based on how the barrier draws have worked out. The likely scenario is that Soho Trump has the speed to lead, and from there will try to control and outsprint them as he did in the Victorian Sires Classic. The difference this time is the draw, and the map looks much better for Brooklyn Dan to get his chance to sprint Soho Trump down. Should be an exciting finish.
Confidence: Medium Rated Win Price: $2.20
Race 4 – 2760m – Woodlands Stud Victoria Derby (3rd Heat)
4/1 Palladium – Nathan Jack/Brad Hewitt
Palladium really came of age during the Brisbane carnival, where he turned in three excellent runs, culminating in the G1 Qld Derby where he did it tough and was too good for a strong field. It can be argued he’s found the most suitable heat of the three here and can look to comfortably kick up from the pole, hold the lead and dictate terms. He’s a classy type who gets a perfect map to be a confident play.
Confidence: High Rated Win Price: $1.60
Race 5 – 2240m – Woodlands Stud V.L. Dullard Trotters Cup (G3)
5/2 Gatesys Gem – Nathan Jack/Glenn Hunter
Gatesys Gem is a 4yo mare giving away experience against open-class trotters here, but in her favour are her blistering gate speed, likely map and the fact she’s a classy type who is already a three-time G1 winner. If it was a mile, you could stamp her here, but with the quality of the opposition and the longer trip, she will need to be at her very best to take the step up.
Confidence: Low Rated Win Price: $2.80
Race 6 – 1720m – Aldebaran Park Need For Speed Prince – 3yo Colts & Geldings Final (G1)
6/4 The Preacher – Kate Gath/Jayne Davies
Despite this being two heats into a final, it’s a tricky race to line up, with some of these either drawn poorly or those who do have a good map not at the peak of their powers. I’m not convinced The Preacher is at his best, but he always gives himself a great chance thanks to his gate speed and ability to perform at his best from that position, only narrowly going down in his heat.
Confidence: Low Rated Win Price: $3.60
Race 7 – 1720m – Aldebaran Park Need For Speed Princess – 3yo Fillies Final (G1)
7/2 Jilliby Aura – Jason Lee/Antti Ruokonen
Jilliby Aura deserves another chance despite failing in the heat where she had to work very hard to find the lead in what was a very fast lead time and first quarter for this grade. She gets a much better set-up now from this draw, and Jason Lee will draw from that experience in the heat to turn the tables on her rivals, who now draw with challenges.
Confidence: High Rated Win Price: $2.20
Race 8 – 2760m – Prydes Easifeed Victoria Oaks (1st Heat)
8/2 Willows Girl – Cameron Hart/Emma Stewart
These Oaks heats will be tricky to assess, with many of these fillies being speedy types and unknown over the staying trip. Ripples is without question the class in the race, already a two-time G1 winner and multiple placegetter at black-type level, but she gets no favours at all with the draw. Willows Girl is the next best on the prizemoney scale, being a G2 winner, and easily gets the best map here, so lean her way.
Confidence: Medium Rated Win Price: $2.00
Race 9 – 2760m – Prydes Easifeed Victoria Oaks (1st Heat)
9/2 Bettor Beach – Mark Pitt/Emma Stewart
The most intriguing contest of the night, with recent G1 Vicbred winner Bettor Beach drawing perfectly in barrier two, and the impressive former Kiwi The Queens Gambit now with the Grimson stable. Any way you look at it, The Queens Gambit will have to do more work or require more luck than Bettor Beach, who will likely dictate terms in front. It may be different for the final, but it’s hard to see Bettor Beach not getting it done this time.
Confidence: High Rated Win Price: $1.40
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