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Race 1

Confidence:
 

 

Back in the formative days of Goodform this is what we used to call a ‘Speed Map Special’ or ‘One of those races’ where the pole beats the trail and you work everything else around that. Unless something totally unforeseen occurs here ROCKNROLL RONNIE (1) will hold up with relative ease from the polemarking draw cop very little mid-race pressure and justify his short quote with IM NO OUTLAW (8) his only challenger and very likely silver medallist. Because ROCKNROLL RONNIE (1) can be vulnerable against horses with snap speed I’m playing a little saver with IM NO OUTLAW (8) to ping him but I concede that’s only a small hope of happening. From here you can play Quins, Tricks, First Fours or a combination of all but to keep things simple I’m attacking four  staggered Trifectas where only EXPLICIT CASTLE (6) or MADEEBA (3) can possibly run third.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 8/ 6. $45 gets 4500%

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 8/ 3. $15 gets 1500%

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 1/ 3. $8 gets 800%

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 1/ 6. $2 gets 200%

Race 2

Confidence:
 

 

You can leave me right out here. The Map is messy for starters and beyond that we’re dealing with animals that are too variable in their output to inspire genuine confidence. In a small way I respect the money for FISCAL FANTASY (3) ($10 to $4.60) first up for team Larajay but I marked here $3.50 in the first place so it’s tough to identify whether there’s proper stable confidence or they just opened her at ridiculous odds and the market has corrected itself. If I had to guess I would suggest the latter.

SUGGESTED BETS: Nothing significant. (Confidence level that Hit The Sky will win)

Race 3

Confidence:
 

 

This looks something of a trick race and even though you’d think there are only two winning hopes something in my bones tells me that a blowout is possible. That being said I certainly felt there was a genuine possibility that CLASSY LOLA (7) could find herself in front of the hot fave ORLANDO STORM (5) and if you believe that too then the disparity in their market prices is far too great. Right now CLASSY LOLA (7) is $2.60 with TAB and if you can get $2.80 then she’s worth an interest bet at least.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$20 Win on Classy Lola (7) at $2.80 or better

Race 4

Confidence:
 

 

There’s very little doubt that one of Australia’s best five trotters MCLOVIN (9) will simply rock up and brain his opposition fresh up from a break here but the problem with this event is he’s unbackable at $1.25 and there are too many niggling doubts about who will join him on the podium to have a decent exotic investment. If there’s a market push for EGEE MONEY (6) then she’s likely to run second but SAVANNAH JAY (8) is also close to reaching his peak so you can chose to play multiples with those two as the most likely silver medal prospects but I won’t be getting heavily involved.

SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant. (Confidence level that Egee Money or Savannah Jay Jay will run second to McLovin)

Race 5

Confidence:
 

 

When first assessing this very exciting event I didn’t imagine it would lend itself to many punting alternatives but the way markets have so far settled it seems as though we can potentially play two ways and cover vastly disparate race-pace scenarios. With ARDEN VOYAGER (1) almost certain to lead there are two ways this event can play out. Either that bloke settles in transit and dictates the tempo before dashing them off their feet through the final 600m or he over-races/cops pressure and leaves himself vulnerable to a swooper. At his current price of $2.70 ARDEN VOYAGER (1) is right at that price where we can have a speculative wager on him to win while saving to some degree on IDEALSOMEMAGIC (6) who possesses super closing speed when driven ice cold and represents the biggest outright overs on the card as a whole.

SUGGESTED BET:

$30 Win on Arden Voyager (1) at $2.60 or better

$10 Each Way on Idealsomemagic (6) at $12 or better (Currently $15 & $5)

Race 6

Confidence:
 

 

On face value you’d think the scratching of Delightful Jazz would have made a relatively simple race even easier but if anything it’s confused the issue a touch. That being said we should still turn a profit from the contest. Even before the removal TWO TIMES BETTOR (2) looked an absolute lock to lead and win and that’s even more certain now while OUR SPORTSCASTER (5) is clearly the second best horse but may be in an incredibly awkward position through a race of little speed so we’re better roving him for both second AND third rather than declaring him a moral silver medallist.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 5/ 1. $40 gets 4000%

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 5/ 3. $10 gets 1000%

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1/ 5. $10 gets 1000%

Race 7

Confidence:
 

 

On face value this fast class contest looks the best Money Race on the card if we’ve read the Map correctly; and I’m very confident we have. All things being equal MAJOR TIMES (2) will easily assume the early lead here and the only horse he’ll be handing over to is POSTER BOY (6) who in all seriousness is lengths better than any of his adversaries tonight. Should the first 400m pan out as we expect then POSTER BOY (6) will win and MAJOR TIMES (2) is 80% likely to finish second so our only task is to find some potential bronze medallists for variously staggered amounts.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 2/ 4. $30 gets 3000%

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 2/ 3. $22 gets 2200%

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 2/ 1. $8 gets 800%

 

Early Quaddie

 

Pretty well uninspired by tonight’s Early Quad as I’m no fan of race two and it’s the only leg we might find a split through. I reckon we’ll get it but whether we make any coin from it is another thing entirely.

1/ 3,5,6,7/ 5,7/ 9. $40 gets 500%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Quaddie

 

Three legs of tonight’s Quad look all but set in stone so the only way we can eek a profit from my favourite bet type is to stagger our selection in the only open leg. If Arden Voyager wins we should double our money. We might get square if Deedenuto lobs and if Idealsomemagic prevails we’ll get a decent collect.

9/ 1/ 2/ 6. $50 gets 5000%

9/ 5/ 2/ 6. $30 gets 3000%

9/ 6/ 2/ 6. $15 gets 1500%

9/ 7/ 2/ 6. $5 gets 500%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Summary

 

Win, place, each way

Race 3: $20 Win on Classy Lola (7) at $2.80 or better
Race 5: $30 Win on Arden Voyager (1) at $2.60 or better
Race 5: $10 Each Way on Idealsomemagic (6) at $12 or better (Currently $15 & $5)

Exotics

Race 1:
Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 8/ 6. $45 gets 4500%
Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 8/ 3. $15 gets 1500%
Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 1/ 3. $8 gets 800%
Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 1/ 6. $2 gets 200%
Race 6:
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 5/ 1. $40 gets 4000%
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 5/ 3. $10 gets 1000%
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1/ 5. $10 gets 1000%
Race 7:
Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 2/ 4. $30 gets 3000%
Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 2/ 3. $22 gets 2200%
Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 2/ 1. $8 gets 800%

Early Quaddie

1/ 3,5,6,7/ 5,7/ 9. $40 gets 500%

Quaddie

9/ 1/ 2/ 6. $50 gets 5000%
9/ 5/ 2/ 6. $30 gets 3000%
9/ 6/ 2/ 6. $15 gets 1500%
9/ 7/ 2/ 6. $5 gets 500%