New Zealand’s unluckiest barrier draw horse had to secure a good gate one day and Merlin has found the perfect race to finally get some luck.

This makes him clearly the horse to beat in tonight’s $135,000 Woodlands Northern Derby at Alexandra Park.

The Derby is the highlight of Auckland’s biggest harness racing meeting in months, with four other group races including the Northern Oaks which will be dominated by unbeaten filly Millwood Nike.

The Derby looked far more open though after Sherlock won the major lead-up last Friday, suggesting he has closed the gap on Merlin.

But that gap may have re-opened after the barrier draw. Merlin will start from two while key rivals Sherlock and Son Of Mac face second line draws, and remarkably it is the first time in 13 starts Merlin has drawn inside five.

To make matters worse, often when he has drawn barriers five or six it has been in small fields, so he has actually been on the outside of the front line. On three occasions he has drawn barrier eight and on three others the second line.

Merlin seems to have struck a truce with the barrier draw gods at the perfect time as ability to get to the markers is never more important than age group pacing races than when they step up to staying trips for the first time.

Simple math means the horses on the marker pegs could cover 10 lengths less over 2700m than those in the running line, let alone those coming wider.

That’s great news for Merlin, bad news for Sherlock and Son Of Mac.

Driver Zachary Butcher says the draw means he doesn’t have to think too much.

“It is about time we got a good draw and I am confident we can lead and then have options,” says Butcher.

“One of those could be to hand up to Sooner The Better and take a trail, but we could even stay in front because I know our horse will be better for the run last week.”

Taking the shortest way home, Merlin should win the Derby and Sooner The Better looms as the best place bet even though Sherlock gets stronger with every run and could still prevail if the Derby gets turned upside down early.

The Oaks looks a benefit for Millwood Nike not only because she is better than her opponents but because key rival Kahlua Flybye is scratched and Advance Party has a wide draw.

Trainers Barry Purdon and Scott Phelan will dominate the two-year-old races before the big boys of pacing get together for the first time in 2023 in the City Of Auckland Free-For-All.

Copy That, Self Assured, Akuta, Old Town Road and rising speedster Nicholas Cage are already guaranteed spots in the $1million Race by Grins at Cambridge on April 14, and with that in mind tonight’s race could be devoid of aggression after the early burn.

Copy That looks the most likely leader and therefore the most likely winner, with connections of many of the other favourites suggesting tonight won’t be the night they go looking to make a statement.

THREE PARK PICKS

Best: Merlin (R7, No.2): Looks his Derby to lose from the draw even if early value is gone.

Next best: Copy That (R9, No.2): Looks back to something like his best and could be leader in a race lacking pressure.

Class act: Double Delight (R3, No.7): Even off 25m she is better off her than in recent races in which she has been two huge seconds.