Big fields and plenty of the favourites copping difficult draws have produced a New Zealand Trotting Cup day at Addington with more value than usual.
Unbeaten filly Millwood Nike may start the only odds-on favourite all day so here is a race-by-race look at the best plays on harness racing’s biggest day.
Race 1: Tricky trot to start with and Masterly (4) hard to catch if he leads. Value lies in That’s What We Do (17) as 3200m gives him time to overcame handicap.
Race 2: The good three-year-olds tend to be too good for grade horses and with Charlie Brown (6), who has been luckless in elite company, better drawn than Jolimont (10) he gets the nod.
Race 3: Genius trainer Paul Nairn has made a special boot to help Confessional (5) trot better under pressure so he is top pick but his stablemate Outtamyway (2) the cover bet after unusual campaign.
Race 4: Tough race but Amaretto Bromac (14) has a big motor and small brain. She could blow them away and Borrisokane (13) the logical other coming out of good 3-y-o races and winning at Cup trials. Mandalay Bay (16) smart horse in new stable but price too short.
Race 5: One of the two stars Merlin (8) or Don’t Stop Dreaming (9) should win and it will come down to which gets the best run. Merlin paying more so the better bet.
Race 6: Wag Star (7) has been brilliant and that may earn him enough respect to get the lead and win. Sooner The Better (12) looks a great place/Top 4 bet if they go hard.
Race 7: If they are ever going to beat Millwood Nike (15) it will be today. Could settle a long way off leaders which is why you are getting $1.80. She might still win because she is a mini-freak but Aardiebytheseaside (2) a great place option.
Race 8: Basically a who-steps-best-can-win 2000m standing start, which are not great races. Good time to go have a cup of tea but if you want an interest bet maybe split Aardiebythehill (1) and Love N The Port (4).
Race 9: This depends entirely on how hard they go early. If not frenetic then Vessem (7) with the blinds and Blair Orange on can win but if thet go nuts then Cold Chisel (12) or Chase A Dream (15) could over-power tiring leaders.
Race 10: Not a race to be diving too deeply into as some of these could be in this same grade Cup Day next year. But Elizabeth Hill (7) won’t be and has had a string of trials to get ready and been well behaved. Not foolproof but the best horse here.
Race 11: See above.
Race 12: Not easy but both Dalton Shard (6) and Smoke On The Water (8) were excellent last time so they make sense in finicky way to end the day.
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The opinions expressed in The Forum are those of the author and may not be attributed to or represent policies of Harness Racing Victoria, which is the state authority and owner of thetrots.com.au.