Krug will need to win a less-than-ideal mile race at Addington tonight if he is to get his shot at the biggest mile race of them all in three week's time.
The Canterbury pacer will be a warm favourite in the free-for-all at Addington tonight, even though he starts from the worst barrier any horse faces in New Zealand all season.
The Addington mile start point is on a bend and why anybody insists on holding mile races there defies belief, with novelty races good fun but hardly the ideal format in which to showcase genuine equine talent.
By virtue of being the best horse in the race, Krug has drawn the outside barrier of six which effectively means he will start six-wide on the track on a bend going near full speed, from where going forward is almost impossible.
So he will probably settle last, his saving grace being there are only six in the race and that may mean he starts the last 800m no worse than three back on the outer.
He may still be good enough to win, but with a rival like Mighty Looee sharp enough to pace a 1:52 mile at Nelson two starts ago, punters would want at least $2 to be getting serious on Krug.
While the race is an oddity, co-trainer Cran Dalgety says it serves a purpose as a trial for a potential Sydney trip ultimately aimed at the A$1million Miracle Mile on March 4.
Krug went to Sydney last season, and while his campaign started well, his form tapered off. He looks stronger this term, that first year in the big time toughening him up as it does so many horses.
“If he wins this week and wins well then we will probably send him over to Sydney for the Miracle Mile qualifiers on Feb 25,” says Dalgety.
“We have Republican Party over there, so we already have Carter (son) there with him, so logistically it all works and if Krug goes over and doesn’t qualify for the Miracle Mile, he still has a $100,000 free-for-all on the last night he can contest.”
The Dalgety team has also started talks with at least one syndicate of slot holders so look certain to get a position in the $1million The Race by Grins at Cambridge on April 14.
Republican Party won at Menangle last Saturday and will now take on much-hyped Victorian pacers Captain Ravishing and Catch A Wave in the A$250,000 Chariots Of Fire there on Saturday week.
While Krug is the best horse at Addington tonight he isn’t in the best race, with the $90,000 Fahey Fence Hire NZ Breeders Stakes the first Group 1 of the harness season.
Allamericanlover deserves to be favourite even from the outside of the front line as the 2600m gives her time to overcome that draw, but the rejuvenated Folklore won so well in the lead-up two weeks ago that if she can follow a hot speed, it wouldn’t surprise to see her reach a new peak in her career.
The opinions expressed in The Forum are those of the author and may not be attributed to or represent policies of Harness Racing Victoria, which is the state authority and owner of thetrots.com.au.