Nobody could be in a better position to rate Self Assured’s main dangers in tonight’s $400,000 Trillian Trust Auckland Cup than Natalie Rasmussen.
Which has a touch of irony because when the outstanding reinswoman jumps in the sulky behind the hot favourite tonight it will be the first time she has done so for a race.
Rasmussen, who used to co-train Self Assured, has never actually driven him in a race yet has won Group 1 races in the last year on three of his rivals, including second favourite Spankem.
She drove him to win the Taylor Mile just two starts ago, was the regular driver of Bettor Twist during her champion three-year-old season last term and even partnered South Coast Arden to win the NZ Free-For-All at Addington in November when trainer Brent Mangos was trapped north of the Auckland Covid border.
Yet for all that, she has next to zero association with Self Assured, even in training at home.
“I have driven him in a trial and a workout but I very rarely drive him at home,” says Rasmussen, the world’s greatest ever female big-race driver.
“He has always been Mark’s horse so he does almost all the fast work with him and then on easier days one of the staff, often his regular handler Jimmy, drives him so I don’t have a lot to do with him.”
Rasmussen knows enough about Self Assured from being around him every day and driving against him to rate his chances against some of his key rivals and she says he should win tonight.
“Nothing against any of the other horses because you have to be a good horse to end up in race like this but he looks the best horse here,” says Rasmussen.
“He has so many ways he can beat them. If we step well and he gets the front he will be too tough and classy for most of them and if we have to drive him with a sit I think he will be too fast.”
Of the rivals Rasmussen has driven she says Spankem, to be driven by Tony Herlihy, is the biggest danger, but he has knocked off at the end of 3200m races before.
“I just don’t think he is quite as good over this trip, but I can also see him being in the money for sure.
“Bettor Twist is a wonderful mare but has found it hard in this grade against the boys and is off to stud soon while South Coast Arden is a really good horse but he has had a tricky campaign. So I am on the horse to beat for sure.”
The start of the Cup could determine the finish because if Self Assured can stay in front of the three unruly horses, all of who are strong leaders, then he looks almost certain to get the lead and that could be race over.
But if he takes a misstep at the start and settles behind his unruly rivals the complexion of the race may change, because while he can still beat them with sheer speed that is a lot harder way to win.
Spankem is the clear second pick while A Gs White Socks and open class newcomer Cranbourne have been outstanding this autumn and can place.
FIRST TIME FOR EVERYTHING
Natalie Rasmussen’s major driving wins:
Inter Dominion Pacing Final (5)
NZ Free-For-All (4)
New Zealand Cup (1)
Auckland Cup (1)
Hunter Cup (1)
Victoria Cup (1)
Miracle Mile (1)
The races Rasmusen has won on Self Assured: 0.
HOW TO TACKLE CUPS NIGHT AT THE PARK
The multi anchor
Sundees Son (R7 N3): Has been unbeatable over 3200m with all four distance wins at Group 1 level. Expect him to lead by mid-race and win so anchor him in everything.
The other Cup:
Self Assured (R8 N4): He also has a stunning 3200m record, having won the NZ, Auckland and Easter Cups and if he doesn’t cop any bad luck he should win. But, comparing the two hot favourites' dividends, Self Assured has more realistic ways to get beaten than Sundees Son.
Split bet value
R9 N7 Harder Than Diamonds and R9 N5 Mimi E Coco: The favourite Manhattan can win but is very short and the two northern mares have both shown enough to suggest they can beat her. Harder Than Diamonds was off-colour last time she raced but has been treated since and worked well with Cranbourne on Saturday. She looks the best each-way of the night with Mimi as the cover bet.
Lost and found
Son Of A Sun (R3 N4): Worked hard to lead last week but drawn closer in on unruly this week. Didn’t know what to do when headed in the home straight but should be better for that and really looks the winner in a weak field.
The next great rivalry
R5 N5 Highgrove vs R5 N7 Masterly: Highgrove looks freakish at times but Masterly looked freakish and better behaved last Friday. If they both trot throughout and produce their best? Highgrove gets a narrow point decision.
WATCH MICHAEL GUERIN AND GREG O'CONNOR IN THE BOX SEAT:
CANTEBURY horseman John Dunn thinks he can win all three Group 1s at Alexandra Park tonight but they come with varying degrees of concern.
When it comes to champion trotter Sundees Son in the $250,000 Reharvest Rowe Cup the concern levels are understandably low.
They increase a little more with Highgrove in the $100,000 Breckon Farms Trotting Derby because while he may be the best horse in the race he was an expensive and spectacular failure in his lead-up race last Friday.
And Dunn’s greatest challenge of the Group 1 treble comes in the biggest race of the lot, the $400,000 Trillian Trust Auckland Cup, but he still thinks veteran pacer A Gs White Socks can win if a lot of things go right.
It is only fair to start at the top and being the reigning Horse of the Year and going for his third straight Rowe Cup means Sundees Son is at the absolute top of the industry.
He may rate alongside Lyell Creek as our greatest ever 3200m trotter and while Bolt For Brilliance pushed him close over 2200m mobile in the Anzac Cup last Friday, Sundees Son is back at the distance he was born to run tonight.
With barrier three and the chance to go searching for the lead inside the first lap he is well placed and Dunn says the race and preparation has come together perfectly.
“He has a good barrier and the manners to use it and it wasn’t that he was getting tired last week, I just went slower than normal,” says Dunn.
“He was trotting about as fast as he can go that last 400m and Bolt can trot those sectionals even faster but we can trot at that speed for longer.
“So I will drive him more like that this week and he is spot on. So I am very confident even allowing for the quality against him.”
Highgrove is also trained by the Dunn family and looked the best three-year-old trotter until last Friday when he galloped at the start of his race and then rival Masterly produced a stunning victory to confuse the pecking order.
“For me, the mobile was going too slow last week, which it does up here for the trotting races sometimes and that, along with him being drawn on the inside, didn’t help him,” says Dunn.
“He is drawn out wider this week and that will help and before that he had been trotting well so I am confident he will trot away.”
So will that equate to beating Masterly?
“It will be a very good race because Masterly was pretty impressive last Friday. Sure, I think I can beat him but it will be worth watching.”
The Auckland Cup is dominated by Self Assured and Dunn is by no means downplaying his title as our best pacer but isn’t willing to concede just yet with A G’s White Socks.
“He is flying and has been huge his last two starts and I think we have a real hope if we have some luck.
“A lot will depend on the start. He (A Gs White Socks) is on the unruly and so are the other horses who might try and park out Self Assured if they get in front of him, Cranbourne and South Coast Arden.
“If Self Assured gets in front us all then he could get things his way and be very hard to beat.
“But A Gs is racing so well if Self Assured has any bad luck we might be in with a show. I honestly think he can win.”
Incredibly, A Gs White Socks’s last win in New Zealand was at Alexandra Park in December 2019 when he was one of the stars of the Inter Dominion series. That night he beat two All Stars group 1 performers in Chase Auckland and Thefixer.
If he can repeat that tonight, Dunn will be in for the night of his life.
The opinions expressed in The Forum are those of the author and may not be attributed to or represent policies of Harness Racing Victoria, which is the state authority and owner of thetrots.com.au.