The $100,000 Breeders Stakes at Addington tonight may not come down to whether Bettor Twist is the best horse in the race. It may come down to whether she can get to the lead then prove it.
The Group 1 2600m mobile brings together a plethora of speedster mares like Belle Of Montana, Need You Now, Allamericanlover and, to be honest, just about every other mare in the race against the equine sledgehammer that is Bettor Twist.
The last time most of these mares met was over 1980m here two weeks ago and the speedsters opted to keep Bettor Twist trapped three wide throughout and, as brave as she was, that meant a fourth placing for her and a bleeding nose for punters.
But many of the same mares met in the Group 1 Queen Of Hearts at Alexandra Park in December and on that occasion Bettor Twist led and raced clear, with the difference in those two races summing up the great mare’s last 10 starts.
She is so relentless and hard to get past when she leads that she invariably wins, that being the case all three times she has led in her last 10 starts.
But she has won only one of the other seven starts when she was unable to find the marker pegs, with her lack of change-up speed meaning she has tended to race parked and be brave but beaten.
Some of those defeats were in Australia on smaller tracks against a very good filly in Ladies In Red, and Addington’s roomier track still gives Bettor Twist a chance to get that head of steam up coming wide over the last lap, but punters considering taking favourite odds about her tonight will want to see her in front.
What aids her chances of getting there is a good draw and the 2600m distance, which would suggest once the speedsters sort themselves out early most, if not all, would probably choose to hand up to Bettor Twist.
That makes her the horse to beat again but with the double threat of even the smallest chance she could be left parked or have a genuinely high-class rival like Belle Of Montana or Need You Now sitting on her back means she is no good thing.
Belle Of Montana looms as the biggest danger because she is all but guaranteed being on the marker pegs and if she can hold the lead until Bettor Twist challenges she could get the trail and try the slingshot move that won her the Jewels here two and a half years ago.
But there is enough depth in the race to suggest it could be one of its better editions in recent seasons.
THE BOX SEAT: Michael Guerin and Greg O'Connor on the Harness Millions, Sales and a tribute to the great man Roy Purdon.
A skin infection and some terrible timing has ruled South Coast Arden out of the Harness Millions on Saturday night.
The New Zealand Free-For-All winner was supposed to resume his rivalry with Self Assured in the Livamol Sprint Classic at Alexandra Park on Saturday night but trainer Brent Mangos has been forced to withdraw him.
“It is nothing major but he developed a skin infection a few days ago and with the severe humidity up here it has gotten a lot worse than I would have liked,” says Mangos.
“It is right where the saddle goes too and it would have really annoyed him but we couldn’t use anything to treat it this close to the race. He will be fine in a few days but it is a shame.”
The setback will not affect South Coast Arden’s late summer and autumn campaign that is likely to see him race three times before The Race at Cambridge on April 14, which he is certain to get a slot for if he remains fit and healthy.
The race got its first official contestant today when Dunstan Feeds signed up Southland pacer Pembrook Playboy for the new concept race.
“We wanted a horse that represented the fact we are a nationwide company with customers everywhere and we are thrilled to get a horse as good as Pembrook Playboy with top Southland connections we look forward to sharing the ride with,” said Dunstan boss David Smith.
“It has already been fun and we are looking forward to how the next few months unfold.”
Another slot holder, SENZ, has announced it will reveal the horse to fill its slot on its Mail Run show at 9am (NZ time) on Saturday morning.
Many of the potential contenders for The Race will compete at Alexandra Park tomorrow night, including Self Assured, Akuta, Franco Indie, B D Joe, Kango and even Hot And Treacherous, while another leading contender, Krug, races at Menangle.
Don’t be put off by champion Sundees Son’s no-show at the trials last week ahead of his Alexandra Park return on Saturday night.
Driver John Dunn says the harness hero is still ready to win the $50,000 Lyell Creek Trot over northern star Bolt For Brilliance.
Sundees Son was supposed to race at Alexandra Park last Thursday but his race was canned and then Dunn hoped to take him to the trials on Friday but, when they were actually on Saturday, that plan was scrapped because Dunn had to be back in Christchurch to drive at Addington.
“So we took him to the beach instead and gave him a good strong workout and he is spot on,” says Dunn.
“Obviously he might have been fitter if he had raced last week but that applies to Bolt For Brilliance as well.”
If Bolt For Brilliance can get in front of Sundees Son and stay there he can make a race of it but if Sundees Son gets in front of him multi punters will be on good terms with themselves to start the night.
Plenty of those multis will run through Dunn’s drive Highgrove in the second race, which with its farcical field of just three must be in danger of being dropped from this meeting next season and run in the South Island, where all three starters and more young trotters are trained.
“He isn’t at his best right-handed but he handled the track well enough after an early break last week that he should still win,” said Dunn.
With the Dunn trotters so hot to start the night and followed by $1.10 chance True Fantasy there could be some serious multis building up toward the likes of Merlin, Franco Indie and Self Assured later in the program.
The opinions expressed in The Forum are those of the author and may not be attributed to or represent policies of Harness Racing Victoria, which is the state authority and owner of thetrots.com.au.