Goodform Gameplan: Melton Sat 5th June

I must say I liked this opening event a whole lot more before LETHERHAIRDOWN (1) secured a run. Because I’m planning to play so wide through the Early Quad we’ll still back SANDAY (9) for something but with such a mesmerising map it’s tough to have great confidence that he’ll find a way to win should circumstances play against him. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Win SANDAY (9) at $3 or better 

This is a very speculative wager but I tend to think that REIGNING LILLIES (1) has been underrated here. If she can somehow hold the leaders back (whoever that might be) then I think she’s a small winning hope at $41 and I certainly think she can place at $8 the drum. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$5 Win $15 Place REIGNING LILLIES (1) at $21 or better 

On paper this isn’t an overly appealing race but the more you dig the more it seems super likely that ORBIE (3) will win. The $4.50 offered early doors was very juicy but I’m still willing to play at $3.60 as she should be favourite without doubt for mine. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Win ORBIE (3) at $3 or better 

The more I look at this event, the more consumed by the map I become. If TANGO TARA (1) gets crossed early we’re in bother but if he leads outright from gate one and TORRID SAINT (9) follows through to trail then the former horse should win and the later should finish somewhere on the podium. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 9/ 2,4,10: $18 gets 600% 

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 2,4,10/ 9: $12 gets 400%

The level of early pressure applied will likely shape the result here but two things are almost certain; either ALWAYS FAST (3) or SIRLETIC (8) will win and both will finish on the dais. Because of his better draw ALWAYS FAST (3) has more options and as a result we will weight our exotics in his favour to actually win the event. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 8/ 1,4,7,9: $28 gets 700% 

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 3/ 1,4,7,9: $14 gets 350% 

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1,4,7,9/ 8: $12 gets 300% 

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 1,4,7,9/ 3: $6 gets 150%

On first inspection of this race I was keen to back IMSETTOGO (4) but she is now $2.30 and for a horse with her quirks that’s just too short. I’m also not keen to back against here so as a result we’re just staying out. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that IMSETTOGO (4) will win)

STRUVE (1) is a very funny horse but he should lead with painful ease and there should be little mid-race pressure. As a result he looks a moral and if LIVE ON BROADWAY (8) follows through to trail he should finish second or third at worst. With that established our only job is filling in the gaps. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 8/ 6,7: $30 gets 1500% 

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 8/ 2: $10 gets 1000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 8/ 3,4: $10 gets 500% 

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 2,6,7/ 8: $30 gets 1000%

I went early on SUNDONS COURAGE (6) at double figures here so it’s tough to promote him as a betting option at $4.20. If pressed I could also conjure a multiple here but it’s ultimately more prudent just to stay out at this stage. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that either SPARKLING SUCCESS (4) or SUNDONS COURAGE (6) will win)

We finish with another race where the quoted prices are too near my own and thus little or no value jumps off the page. As a result we’re steering clear here as well. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that ROYAL CHARLOTTE (2) will win)