Goodform Gameplan: Melton Tue 22nd December

AMELIA ROSE (7) got across to lead very easily in her heat but things may be slightly more competitive here. I’m hoping THE PANTHEIST (2) either holds her last-start conqueror out or at least makes AMELIA ROSE (7) work for the front. If that happens then TECHYS ANGEL (11) and more importantly SHES A HOVERCRAFT (6) come sharply into play. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Box Trifecta: 2,6,7 & 11 ($30 gets 125%) 

$15 Each Way SHES A HOVERCRAFT (6) at $10 or better

Much like the opening race I don’t think there’s much between the top few chances here. I understand that at the qualification phase of the series MISS MCGONAGALL (2) may get gifted an easy lead and roll away as a result but the top three have a massive edge on the rest so Boxing the Trick and hoping the fave gets rolled appeals to me as a wager. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Flexi Box Trifecta: 2,3 & 7 ($40 gets 666.67%)

He hasn’t got much natural gate speed but JACKS HAWK (1) may be gifted the front from gate one here and if he is then SUMOMENTSOMEWHERE (8) can be dangerous. Even if he’s three poles he’s a good chance of running a drum. The alternate play is to potentially lay IDYLLIC (9) for a small amount. He’s been great his last two but is not the kind of horse at this stage of his career that appeals in the tomato sauce. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$5 Win & $15 Place SUMOMENTSOMEWHERE (8) at $10 or better

She looks super likely to lead unopposed and cruise through a lead time which will set her up for victory but I just can’t come at $1.75 about SOHO BROADWAY (2) so this looks a complete sit-out job for mine. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Nothing significant (Confidence level that SOHO BROADWAY (2) will win)

I plan to get a little cowardly here but I really can’t help it. The way he won his heat and the fact he looks very likely to lead HONOLUA BAY (3) is very tough to go past so a couple of adventurous Tricks where he must win will be in the menu but once suspects he won’t be gifted the race and if they go hard TINDER SURPRISE (2) looks a big chance of blousing him. Also, at giant odds, it could be worth having a straight place bet on IMNOPUMPKIN (8) who’ll end up exactly where he did when winning his heat (3 poles). He may have been an ‘upset’ result there but he’s actually a very promising horse. 

SUGGESTED BETS:  

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 2/ 4,5,6,7,8,10,11 ($25 gets 357.14%) 

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 4,5,6,7,8,10,11/ 2 ($15 gets 214.29%) 

$20 Win on TINDER SURPRISE (2) at $4.50 or better 

$10 Place on IMNOPUMPKIN (8) at $5 the drum or better

I couldn’t have a bigger opinion of WESTERN SONADOR (11) at present but I still think REACTOR NOW (4) has this race on toast from the draw. He is actually great value at his current quote of $1.90 but the best play here is a sneaky Trifecta which will explode in profitability should TORRID SAINT (3) lead the trail and run into the bronze medal position. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 5,11,13/ 3,5,11,13 ($50 gets 555.55%)

There’s a pretty significant temptation to back SOEXTRA (1) straight out here at $2.30 but you’d need a fair bit on to make it worth your while so Tricks might be the plan here in a race where so many of them went great in their heat we might just jag a big value bronze medallist to tip us over the edge. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 4,8/ 3,4,6,7,8,9,10,12 ($25 gets 208.33%) 

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 1,8/ 1,3,6,7,8,9,10,12 ($15 gets 125%)

It breaks my heart to do this again but I find it very hard to see my little mate HURRICANE HARLEY (13) beating LOCHINVAR ART (8) from their comparative draws. I do believe he’ll run second however and that may create the platform for some staggered Trifectas which could yield a decent return. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 13/ 9: $15 gets 1500% 

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 13/ 1,3,6,12: $36 gets 900% 

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 9/ 13: $9 gets 900%

MAAJIDA (6) looks the obvious winner here but I still haven’t gotten over her almost capsizing my night when well below here best at this stage of the Breeders Crown so I’m just letting this race go straight through to the keeper. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Nothing significant (Confidence level that MAAJIDA (6) will win) 

If ENCHANTED STRIDE (2) leads and HEAVENS SHOWGIRL (1) trails here as expected this looks one of the clearest cut wagering option all night. In a perfect world RAANI (8) would poke through and grab third along the pegs but we’ll spread the net a little wider than that for bronze medal honours. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Flexi Trifecta: 1,2/ 1,2/ 3,7,8,12 ($50 gets 625%)

MAJOR MOTH (12) looks an over-the-line job here at $1.30 but I can’t find a really appealing way to play multiples so just sitting out and watching this juvenile beast do his thing. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Nothing significant (Confidence level that MAJOR MOTH (12) will win)

The pecking order for this year’s freshman fillies looks very well established at this point so just playing a simple little Trick in the last hoping those formlines hold up here once more. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 7/ 10,11 ($40 gets 2000%)