The Goodform Gameplan: Melton Saturday 16th May

Early markets would suggest my map is wrong and that BAO NIEN (1) will lead with IM NO OUTLAW (8) trailing but that’s simply not how I read the race. With so much front line gate speed engaged I’m hoping for a sub 45-sec Lead Time and if we get that I am super confident MISS MCGONAGALL (9) will win. Because of the draw I’d like around $3.20 but I’ll accept anything better than $3. Alternatively I did think if the race were run a different way that EXPLICIT CASTLE (4) could potentially lead and win. He has led 15 times in his life for 8 wins and 7 placings so should he find the front he’s an Each Way lock.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$30 Win on Miss McGonagall (9) at $3 or better.

$10 Each Way on Explicit Castle (4) at $5 or better (currently $7.50).

Funny little race where PRADASON (5) may work a little to lead but once he finds the top that should be game over. That being said I can’t launch into him straight out at $1.55 so some fiddly exotics to maintain an interest where DELIGHTFUL JAZZ (9) must run second or third at very worst is the way I want to invest.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 9/ 1,3,4,7. $28 gets 700%

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 1,3,4,7/ 9. $8 gets 200%

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 9/ 2,8. $4 gets 200%

Another finicky little race this one for the 3YO Fillies where we’re forced into the position of playing very aggressive exotics with virtually no margin for error if we’re hoping to skim something off the top. Some of these largely inexperienced 3YO’s are being asked to back up seven days after racing in the wet and over a longer trip tonight so don’t be certain of anything but we’re entitled to believe that Emma Stewart will train the Trifecta with BEAUTIFUL WOMAN (3) a near moral based on her last start success.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi First Four: 3/ 2/ 6/ Field. $30 gets 1000%

Flexi First Four: 3/ 2/ 4/ 6. $2 gets 200%

Flexi First Four: 3/ 6/ 2/ Field. $8 gets 266.67%

Once again we’ll be forced into playing aggressively via the exotic route here but in slight contrast to the previous event I genuinely believe this is a potentially lucrative Money Race option. Barring something bizarre happening IMSETTOGO (1) will lead on her ear here so she looks a lock and with GENTLEMAN SIR (6) no hope of finishing top four we just need to shuffle the deck chairs a little and we should find a winning First Four combo.

SUGGESTED BET:

Flexi First Four: 1/ 3/ 2,5/ 2,3,5. $28 gets 700%

Flexi First Four: 1/ 2/ 3,5/ 2,3,5. $16 gets 400%

Flexi First Four: 1/ 2,3/ 2,3,5/ 4. $6 gets 150%

This will be a wonderful race to watch but it doesn’t appeal as a punting proposition. All things being equal LIKE A WILDFIRE (8) should find a way to win with his stunning turn of speed but I think I’d want $2.50 about him and if he drifted to that price form $2 you’d be concerned regardless. I do predict a very genuine tempo however and in-play punters should feel comfortable launching into the fave if they break 28-secs for their first split and he lobs a handy role.

SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant (Confidence level that Like A Wildfire will win)

With so much confusion about the race map here it’s tough to be crazy confident of anything but if you saw my Tweet earlier in the week and backed STAR OF MEMPHIS (11) at $23 you have gotten monster overs and hopefully created a platform to make money from the race. In absolute fairness I think $6.50 now is even half generous so you can have an Each Way fiddle on him and something 1 x 3 on LOVE INA CHEVY (3) who is over the odds at $19.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$10 Each Way on Star Of Memphis (11) at $6.50 or better (Hopefully you got $23)

$5 by $15 on Love Ina Chevy (3) at $12 or better (Currently $19)

The two arch rivals ROCKNROLL RONNIE (2) and EUREKA (9) should dominate here. If we can get $2.50 about EUREKA (9) I’d be tempted to have a decent lash but it’s obviously safer just to play some low margin Tricks and enjoy the race because EUREKA (9) was below his best last weekend and it’s very tough to guarantee that he can bounce back here.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 2,9/ 2,9/ 6. $30 gets 1500%

Flexi Trifecta: 2,9/ 2,9/ 7. $10 gets 500%

Flexi Trifecta: 2,9/ 6/ 2,9. $10 gets 500%

$30 Win on Eureka (9) at $2.50

If you backed SAMMY SHOWDOWN (4) at $1.75 or even $1.65 earlier this week you should be on very good terms with yourself but now he’s into $1.50 the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. If you’re desperate to play the race I’d be having a Trick or First Four with the fave two win and the field everywhere else but in all honesty I’m more than likely to sit out and cheer Sammy home.

SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant. (Confidence level that Sammy will win)