Ryan Phelan has your tips, strategy and Quaddie for a bumper 10-race card at Shepparton.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: CRESCO THREEPEAT (6) produced its best run in some time last week at big odds, finishing strongly in a solid final half. That was his first front-row draw for a while, and he may again secure a nice run across to get in front of some key rivals.
WATCH YOUR BACK (5) creates interest first-up for a new stable after arriving from Queensland, where he often showed good gate speed. The stable has had success with these types of acquisitions, so any betting moves should be respected. OUR MYSTERY BET (10) was heavily supported and won impressively last week. He may be better suited over the middle distance and can be hard to catch, but a repeat performance has him in the mix. TEX GOES BANG (12) has been in good form his past four starts, but the draw makes things difficult, and he’ll need the right tempo to show his best.
SELECTIONS: CRESCO THREEPEAT (6), WATCH YOUR BACK (5), OUR MYSTERY BET (10), TEX GOES BANG (12)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: IAMAWINGATE (11) won two starts back despite an awkward draw, coming wide and finishing strongly. The draw is again tricky, but similar to that race, the runners up front don’t appear capable of running sharp closing sectionals, which gives him the chance to finish over the top.
MYNAMEISRUBY (6) is yet to win in 13 attempts this season but remains popular with punters due to her early speed and racing pattern. She’ll be prominent for a long way, but the final stages remain her vulnerability. JOEYS HANGOVER (3) has improved his past couple and this draw suits him pressing forward to race prominently. His last win came from the front. ROYLE BLOOD (8) has shown signs of improvement and the soft draw helps. The stable is in good form.
SELECTIONS: IAMAWINGATE (11), MYNAMEISRUBY (6), JOEYS HANGOVER (3), ROYLE BLOOD (8)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: HITCH TO HIS STAR (3) has been terrific in two runs back from a spell, placed on both occasions, and now gains the advantage of a favourable draw. He can show enough gate speed to map well and with added fitness his closing figures suggest he can prove too strong late.
SEA FURY (5) has been flying since arriving in Victoria for the new stable. He was heavily supported at Melton last start when able to lead before just finding one better. He’s likely to press forward again, although whether he crosses is the key question. EYE SEE PHILTRA (2) is another front-row runner expected to be driven aggressively. He led throughout four starts ago at Echuca and has since been freshened. YAPPER (1) ran well first-up against quality opposition, and this draw should allow him an economical trip.
BACK: HITCH TO HIS STAR (3) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: HITCH TO HIS STAR (3), SEA FURY (5), EYE SEE PHILTRA (2), YAPPER (1)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: FENWAY PARK (8) was beaten as an odds-on favourite here last week, but it was the second straight start he was forced to sit parked in fast time. He now looks well treated with the junior claim and draws behind the pole marker, who attempted to lead throughout last time. He’s worth another chance.
ROYLANCE (3) will likely push for the lead from this draw after winning from that position two starts ago at this track. He had to work hard last time but can bounce back. FLIP A COIN (6) has returned in good form and produced his best effort last start when winning in solid time. The map and opposition are different here, but with luck he can feature again. EAGLE MAJOR (1) will look to use the inside draw to advantage and has held good positions from similar gates recently. This race suits and his best form is at this circuit.
BACK: FENWAY PARK (8) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: FENWAY PARK (8), ROYLANCE (3), FLIP A COIN (6), EAGLE MAJOR (1)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: ANIMADO (4) strikes his most suitable race in some time and maps well from this draw. He’s been contesting fast-run races, and this opposition doesn’t appear to possess the same depth. The middle-distance trip also suits him better than the short-course races he’s been contesting recently.
FEAR THE POWER (1) has been racing better than his numerical form suggests. Last start under unsuitable conditions he found the line strongly and now returns to the pole draw from which he scored his most recent win. IM BIG BUISNESS (5) caused an upset here last week, coming from off the speed with a strong finishing burst. A repeat effort puts him in the mix. TIVOLI (6) won three starts ago, but her past two have been below her best. She returns to a more suitable grade and can improve.
SELECTIONS: ANIMADO (4), FEAR THE POWER (1), IM BIG BUISNESS (5), TIVOLI (6)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: HELLOVATIME (8) has been tough and consistent throughout this preparation, finishing in the top two at every run and unlucky not to have won more races. He’s shown the ability to sustain long runs and the smaller field plus trailing draw suit him here. The middle trip should allow him to overpower them late.
UNCLE TREV (3) appears the likely leader and won from that position three starts ago, albeit over the shorter trip. DEMBE (4) creates interest after a solid two-year-old campaign against strong opposition. His trials have been sound, so any market support should be noted. ROMAN SCRITTORE (6) was impressive winning on debut, sitting parked and proving too strong in decent time. This is a slight rise in grade, but he must be respected.
BACK: HELLOVATIME (8) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: HELLOVATIME (8), UNCLE TREV (3), DEMBE (4), ROMAN SCRITTORE (6)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: SPORTING RAGE (1) hasn’t won for more than a year but gets his best chance to return to the winner’s list here. He drops in grade and draws the pole, allowing him to use his gate speed to secure the right position over the middle trip, likely leader’s back. He was held up behind a tiring runner last time and worked to the line well once clear.
WINGATE GUY (3) won here four starts ago when coming off the speed over the sprint trip. Earlier this year he put together a strong series of runs and can improve from the favourable draw. SIR SONNY MAGUIRE (8) is third-up and although he hasn’t threatened this preparation, he had little luck last start. He drops sharply in class and can improve. LONGTAN VIPER (5) has been racing well and making ground in recent starts, while the smaller field helps his chances.
BACK: SPORTING RAGE (1) – 1 unit (win)
SELECTIONS: SPORTING RAGE (1), WINGATE GUY (3), SIR SONNY MAGUIRE (8), LONGTAN VIPER (5)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: ROCK POSTER (2) was well backed at odds last start and may have been unlucky not to win, climbing over heels and flashing home once clear. This draw gives her every opportunity to press forward again and secure the right run. This time she also has the benefit of the passing lane, which may have made the difference last time.
SON OF A BROAD (8) has been racing well without winning and while he’s tough, he appears to lack a sharp turn of foot, which is a slight concern from the draw. SHES FROM TEXAS (1) commands respect from the high-striking stable and from the favourable gate. The trials have been sound without being spectacular, but any market support would be significant. EEBEEBEE (4) has been a consistent placegetter over the past year, although she rarely threatens to win.
BACK: ROCK POSTER (2) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ROCK POSTER (2), SON OF A BROAD (8), SHES FROM TEXAS (1), EEBEEBEE (4)
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: HELENSHOPE (2) should use this draw to advantage and look for the front with little pressure expected. She was very good first-up when narrowly beaten and has since contested stronger races than this. With the right tempo she can lead throughout.
JUST LIKE NUGGET (4) finds a suitable race after tackling stronger opposition recently. He strung together some solid placings, and his last start is best forgiven after suffering a flat tyre. He should map well from the draw. IMAGUNNARESTNGO (1) maps to secure leader’s back and while her form needs improvement, that trip gives her claims. DIAMONDONTHEROCKS (7) led and had every chance in the same race as Helenshope last start, but this draw makes things tougher.
BACK: HELENSHOPE (2) – 1 unit (win)
SELECTIONS: HELENSHOPE (2), JUST LIKE NUGGET (4), IMAGUNNARESTNGO (1), DIAMONDONTHEROCKS (7)
Race 10:
OVERVIEW: ISTANBUL (6) is a lightly raced four-year-old with a strong SP profile from his two career starts, despite making mistakes on both occasions. He’s since been spelled and has trialled well in preparation for this. If he brings his manners, he looks the one to beat.
ALDEBARAN ZANE (8) changes stables and has shown this season that a win is not far away. He can trail through softly from the draw and if he begins cleanly will be right in the finish. MI BOW (5) ran second here two starts ago, albeit beaten comfortably, and this isn’t a strong race. GALHALLA (3) has had one inconclusive trial but finds a suitable race to debut, so market support should be monitored.
SELECTIONS: ISTANBUL (6), ALDEBARAN ZANE (8), MI BOW (5), GALHALLA (3)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R3 #3 HITCH TO HIS STAR – 2 units (win)
R4 #8 FENWAY PARK – 2 units (win)
R6 #8 HELLOVATIME – 2 units (win)
R7 #1 SPORTING RAGE – 1 unit (win)
R8 #2 ROCK POSTER – 2 units (win)
R9 #2 HELENSHOPE – 1 unit (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
4,5,6,8,9,10,12/3,6,7,8,11/3,5/1,3,6,8
QUADDIE
1,4,5,6/3,4,6,8/1,2,3,5,8/1,2,8
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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