Tim O’Connor has done the form for the nine-race meeting at Melton on June 27.
Race 1:
ANALYSIS: KEAYANG SWEETHEART (5) is a progressive mare who has a great career record of three wins and five placings from nine career starts. She clashed with three rivals that reoppose here last weekend and did a super job to finish fourth despite being stuck outside the leader. She was in the same position her prior two runs and finished runner-up, and just needs a bit of luck in transit to give this a real shake. ROYAL APPOINTMENT (9) beat her home last weekend with a great run from off speed and is bursting to win a race of this calibre, RANGER RICK (11) has seven-straight placings this campaign and was only narrowly beaten last time out at Horsham, while HIGHLANDHARTBREAKA (13) finished second in that aforementioned race at Melton after working hard to find the spot behind the leader. He has a great sprint and will be storming late from the back row draw.
SELECTIONS: KEAYANG SWEETHEART (5), ROYAL APPOINTMENT (9), RANGER RICK (11), HIGHLANDHARTBREAKA (13)
Race 2:
ANALYSIS: Even contest where plenty looks to hinge on the speed map. REPELLING (4) is a known fast beginner and will likely look to cross to the fence, but there is the chance he will take cover over 2240m if he gets there. This might mean Ryan Sanderson and IDEAL BANDIT (1) hunt up to try hold the lead in the fear of being buried too far back. While it’s a little unclear where he ends up in running, I think THESTATESMAN (2) is drawn well enough and in good enough form to win a race like this. He sprinted nicely to finish second to Dynamitedan last weekend and is just favoured over GOOD TOBE LOCKSLEY (9), who has been super since joining the Adam Kelly yard. He won from the one-one last start and is drawn nicely off the back row in a race where the speed should be genuine. IDEAL BANDIT (1) scored from this draw at Melton on May 9 and must be regarded as a strong hope, while MY UNCLE STAN (3) produced his best run of the campaign when a fast-finishing third to GOOD TOBE LOCKSLEY (9) on June 13. Others can win, including the in-form pair PERUN (5) and CLYMENUS (6).
SELECTIONS: THESTATESMAN (2), GOOD TOBE LOCKSLEY (9), IDEAL BANDIT (1), MY UNCLE STAN (3)
Race 3:
ANALYSIS: Had a little bit of trouble splitting APOLLOSTORM (5) and LE CARDINAL (2), but have gone the way of the former for Emma Stewart. He couldn’t have been more impressive leading and winning an easier race than this in a rapid last half of 53.8 a fortnight ago at Melton. It was a scintillating return as a four-year-old and he looks set for a great campaign. LE CARDINAL (2) has stacks of ability and ran a great race from off the speed to finish third in a hot three-year-old contest behind Luvtobeuptome and Most Exciting here on June 6. He’s a very good horse and will likely be a better price than APOLLOSTORM (5), so is worth serious consideration. OLLIES THE BOSS (4) is airborne this campaign and absolutely savaged the line from four back the pegs to just miss Sols Me Name at Geelong last Friday, while MIGHTY JOLT (11) is probably a place chance at best but heads the others.
SELECTIONS: APOLLOSTORM (5), LE CARDINAL (2), OLLIES THE BOSS (4), MIGHTY JOLT (11)
Race 4:
ANALYSIS: ALDEBARAN ABEL (3) was so impressive winning over the sprint trip back at Bendigo on June 10 and gets those conditions to suit again here. While he wasn’t able to prevail last weekend over the middle distance here at Melton, he did run well to finish fourth after working off the gate, settling midfield before sprinting again. It’s a wide-open event with many winning chances, including PROHIBITED GRACE (4). She led, handed up and went within a neck of beating Artigas in the same race ALDEBARAN ABEL (3) and THE SKY IS THE LIMIT (2) contested last weekend. FARROKH (6) was impressive first-up from a break when third to Artigas back on June 13 and that followed two good wins to end the prior campaign, and KARBINE (8) is in good form but found it too tough from a bad barrier in a pegs-dominated Winter Series Final last weekend. If he settles handy to the speed, look out late. Others that wouldn’t shock are THE SKY IS THE LIMIT (2), who draws well for the first time in a while, strong first-up winner RARITY ROCK (1) and SIR EROS (5), who has trialled nicely for new trainers Richard and Emmett Brosnan.
SELECTIONS: ALDEBARAN ABEL (3), PROHIBITED GRACE (4), FARROKH (6), KARBINE (8)
Race 5:
ANALYSIS: HES FROM HEAVEN (4) was caught parked in a race dominated by star New South Wales pacer Hollywood Strip last time at Wagga when he faded for fifth, but his prior two runs were close-up third placings at Melton and Maryborough. Both were full of merit and he draws the most favourably of the “big guns” in this event which might mean he can work forward and find the fence. From there, he’d give this a real shake. MY ULTIMATE BARNEY (5) is a fast beginner who will likely press forward in a bid for the lead and would be a great chance if he assumed that role. He has been brave from outside the leader his last couple and is racing in good form. ULTIMATE VINNIE (8) blundered the start last time but his closing third to Oliver Dan prior to that, while CALEXICO (7) has caught the eye from back in the field his last couple, but will need luck from seven. Last-start Menangle winner JACKS ULTIMATE FURY (6) might be another of the early bidders for the front and would probably need to find that position to be a winning chance at this level.
BACK: HES FROM HEAVEN (4) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: HES FROM HEAVEN (4), MY ULTIMATE BARNEY (5), ULTIMATE VINNIE (8), CALEXICO (7)
Race 6:
ANALYSIS: HOPPY (8) produced something really impressive first-up from a long break when he charged home into third behind I Am Wilma and Im Bobby in free-for-all grade. He recorded the best last half of 55.76 and closed off better than subsequent winner Keayang Stuka, who scored at Melton last weekend. That was a much stronger race than this and he must be the horse to beat despite being the sole runner on the back row. IRON WOMEN (3) is a serious danger drawn off the front where she is expected to lead. She found the top and was way too good over this 1720m trip in mid-May and was a good runner-up behind Crackerjack last time out when she handed up the front. HOWDY MATE (5) hasn’t raced since third in the rich Nutrien series final at Wagga in late May but is a smart three-year-old, while dual Group 1 winner KEAYANG KURKI (7) is first-up and has the ability to give this a shake.
BACK: HOPPY (8) – 4 units (win)
SELECTIONS: HOPPY (8), IRON WOMEN (3), HOWDY MATE (5), KEAYANG KURKI (7)
Race 7:
ANALYSIS: There’s never any certainties in racing, but this might be as close as you get. IDEAL FRANKIE (4) has been ultra impressive in her two career starts to date, including in a prelude of this series at Kilmore last week. She worked to the front and absolutely thrashed all seven rivals that reoppose here by a whopping 46.9m. It’s impossible to predict her being beaten and she goes clearly on top. Finding second, third and fourth is a little harder. GRANDIOSA (6) has been well beaten in all four career runs to date, but did charge home nicely from the back of the field to run second in the prelude. SWEETSUCCESS (2) showed speed to lead that race and boxed on well for third, while EVERY CENT COUNTS (5) was another hitting the line from out the back and can fill a minor end trifecta or First 4 position.
SELECTIONS: IDEAL FRANKIE (4), GRANDIOSA (6), SWEETSUCCESS (2), EVERY CENT COUNTS (5)
Race 8:
ANALYSIS: Like race seven, we got a good look at these horses in last week’s prelude at Kilmore and I thought the effort of CLAYTON (5) on debut was very encouraging. He sat parked and ran a great race for second behind CARDIGAN SNIPER (1), who was allowed to stroll to the front and dictate terms. I fancy Nathan Jack will be much more aggressive off the arm in a bid to find the front, and if able to cross, he becomes a great wining hope. CARDIGAN SNIPER (1) is the obvious favourite and horse to beat. He is already a two-time winner and ran well from the breeze when fourth in the hot Rising Star at Ballarat. South Australian visitors BUILDTHEMANASTATUE (2) and SEABREEZE LAD (4) would need to improve to win, but shape as the leading place contenders in the small field of six.
BACK: CLAYTON (5) – 4 units (win)
SELECTIONS: CLAYTON (5), CARDIGAN SNIPER (1), BUILDTHEMANASTATUE (2), SEABREEZE LAD (4)
Race 9:
ANALYSIS: JILLIBY DREAMLOVER (5) will start a short-priced favourite here as she returns from a break. She has trialled up with a good second to pacer Nancys Boy at Terang and heads into this race following back-to-back placings at Group 1 level. She should have the gate speed to ultimately find the front and will take a power of beating. PINNIE (4) gets back into a much more suitable assignment after being well held at free-for-all level in recent weeks and should have the speed to get down to the pegs. She’s a handy mare and looks the key danger to the favourite. KEAYANG TWEETYBIRD (6) made an early mistake when $1.40 in a much easier race than this at Geelong last Friday but did well to chase into fourth, while KEAYANG GYPSY (2) is first-up without a trial and shares place hopes with TICTOK (3).
SELECTIONS: JILLIBY DREAMLOVER (5), PINNIE (4), KEAYANG TWEETYBIRD (6), KEAYANG GYPSY (2)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R5 #4 HES FROM HEAVEN – 2 units (win)
R6 #8 HOPPY – 4 units (win)
R8 #5 CLAYTON – 4 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
5,9,11,13/1,2,3,5,6,9/2,4,5/1,2,3,4,6,8
QUADDIE
4,5,7,8/3,8/4/1,5
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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