Tim O’Connor has gone deep into the form for the blockbuster Group 1 card at Melton on October 17.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: One of the great meetings of the year is upon us, and Victoria Cup night kicks off with a clash for horses who have not won any race with advertised stakemoney of $15,000 or more. NEATNTIDY (4) gets a great chance with the services of master reinsman Luke McCarthy, who takes charge of the Aaron Dunn-trained pacer third-up in the campaign. He was a soft winner at Mildura first-up and last Friday had a little look for the front, drifted back along the pegs and then had no clear air in the home straight while only being beaten 2.8m by Earl Of Pembroke. I fancy he’s a chance of finding the top, and from there would get his chance. HITCH TO HIS STAR (6) was a winner at Melton in early September and has run creditable races in good company since, VIVID DREAM (5) won his first two starts for new trainer Dean Braun in Tasmania and was very competitive when sixth in a Victoria Derby heat last weekend, while ALL BLAZING GUNS (10) has been closing off nicely in recent runs and is one at odds worth considering along with WOTDIDUSAAAY (3), who has won his past two.
BACK: NEATNTIDY (4) – 1 unit (each-way)
SELECTIONS: NEATNTIDY (4), HITCH TO HIS STAR (6), VIVID DREAM (5), ALL BLAZING GUNS (10)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: The first of five Group 1s is the Victoria Trotters Oaks where HALLEBESOFINE (4) gets another good shot at a maiden elite-level triumph for trainer-driver Tina Ridis. Seven of these horses contested last weekend’s G1 Need For Speed Princess Final won by HARPERSEVEN (8), but HALLEBESOFINE (4) had no luck there as favourite when caught wide from a bad gate over the sprint trip. She was only beaten 11.6m, and before that beat home five rivals that reoppose in the G1 Vicbred Super Series Final when second to Queen Of Sees from the front. I fancy she might be able to wrestle the top off quick beginner JILLIBY RADIANCE (3), and if that’s the case, I’m happily in her corner. ALDEBARAN ADA (1) was caught parked and did a great job to run second in the Princess last weekend, now draws beautifully in gate one, ADELAIDE RED (9) endured a similar run against older horses at Ballarat last week and didn’t beat one home, but was probably the best run in that Vicbred showdown when coming off speed for third, while HARPERSEVEN (8) is now a two-time Group 1 winner and has obvious claims. This field doesn’t appear to have any standout filly and the horse with the best run might just prevail!
BACK: HALLEBESOFINE (4) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: HALLEBESOFINE (4), ALDEBARAN ADA (1), ADELAIDE RED (9), HARPERSEVEN (8)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: THE ART OF SUCCESS (11) is shooting for an amazing 11th successive win in this Group 3 Ladyship Cup, and while I’m not exactly sure how she achieves it, I’m not willing to go against her. Last time out, she sat parked to WICKED CONFESSION (7) in the Vicbred Super Series Final for four-year-old mares and wore her down late to score a brilliant victory. That was over 2240m and this is back to 1720m which makes things much harder, but she’s just such an impressive horse coming through the ranks. I’m probably not willing to bet at $2, but can’t tip against her. SWEET IDEAL (2) is flying for Team Lawlor with wins in her past three and draws to find the pegs so will be hard to hold out, LET HER ROLL (4) ran fourth in that Vicbred final behind THE ART OF SUCCESS (11) but had a horror draw and flat tyre, while WICKED CONFESSION (7) is also very good and would be a chance if she was able to spear across to lead over the sprint trip. Great race!
SELECTIONS: THE ART OF SUCCESS (11), SWEET IDEAL (2), LET HER ROLL (4), WICKED CONFESSION (7)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: Great edition of the Victoria Derby where the early speed battle will likely prove telling, with three of the big guns in the market drawn on the front row. They’re favourite PALLADIUM (4), fellow NSW pacer NYMBAL (3) and BROOKLYN DAN (1). All three clashed in the Queensland Derby back in July, with NYMBAL (3) able to cross BROOKLYN DAN (1) at the start from similar gates before PALLADIUM (4) sat parked to score in a close finish. Since then, the winner’s trainer-driver Brad Hewitt has declared this in an interview with Adam Hamilton: “As good as he was that night, I’m sure he’s a lot better now. He had a really rushed and interrupted preparation for Queensland, but since the break he had after it, he’s come back a different horse”. If NYMBAL (3) crosses early, I sense he will hand to PALLADIUM (4) like he did in the heat last weekend, and from there the latter would be the one to beat. NYMBAL (3) beat PALLADIUM (4) in a recent clash at Menangle despite having no luck and could have claimed that Queensland Derby with clearer air late, ENJOY LIFE (9) has only ever been beaten once and was a very impressive winner coming off speed in his Derby heat last Saturday, while BROOKLYN DAN (1) also won a qualifier last weekend and has obvious claims from the good gate. Others in contention are Mick Stanley pair SOHO TRUMP (11) and SOHO CHARMER (12), MOUNT BARKER BOY (13) and LE CARDINAL (2).
SELECTIONS: PALLADIUM (4), ENJOY LIFE (9), NYMBAL (3), BROOKLYN DAN (1)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: Wide-open Group 1 Bill Collins Trotters Sprint where preference is with I AM WILMA (1) who draws wonderfully in gate one and heads into this assignment on the back of a lovely trial where she beat two pacers and GOTFEELINGSYOUKNOW (5) at Melton on October 6. Her last run was a very brave runner-up placing behind GATESYS GEM (2) in the Group 1 Vicbred Super Series Final for four-year-old trotting mares when she had a back row draw and sat parked for most of the race. She has gate speed and a great chance from the pole over the 1720m. LOVEMETO (6) struggled from a similar draw over this trip first-up but bounced back in a big way over 2240m last weekend winning the Dullard Cup against four rivals that reoppose, ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (9) is a multiple Group 1 winner who couldn’t overcome her big handicap in the McNamara Memorial Trotters Cup at Geelong latest when beaten by a front-running IMPERIAL MONARCH (4) but is without doubt one of the top squaregaiters in the land, while Italian GANDHI MAIL (7) brings down good NSW form from five starts there and might be the speed horse from wide on the front line. Great race and the chances don’t stop with those mentioned.
BACK: I AM WILMA (1) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: I AM WILMA (1), LOVEMETO (6), ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (9), GANDHI MAIL (7)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: The big one is the $250,000 SEN Victoria Cup at Group 1 level and it looks set to be dominated by wonder mare CAPTAINS MISTRESS (3) after she landed a very favourable gate at Tuesday’s barrier draw. She is the reigning Inter Dominion champion after beating all-time great Leap To Fame in a memorable final in July and returned from a freshen with a front-running success at Menangle on October 3. It’s hard to see a world where she doesn’t lead and win to give Jason Grimson and Cameron Hart a second victory in the race after taking it with Swayzee in 2024. KINGMAN (8) is the defending Victoria Cup champion, ran a great race for second behind CAPTAINS MISTRESS (3) on October 3 and would have been a genuine threat from a better gate, CATCH A WAVE (9) is the winningest Group 1 starter in the field with eight and can be lethal late from two on the second row, while FIGHTER COMMAND (6), fast beginner NYACK (5), the well-drawn SMOKEN ACE (2) and last weekend’s Smoken Up Sprint winner BULLETPROOF BOY (4) are among the rest of the chances who are all probably running for second and third.
BACK: KINGMAN (8) – 2 units (place)
SELECTIONS: CAPTAINS MISTRESS (3), KINGMAN (8), CATCH A WAVE (9), FIGHTER COMMAND (6)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: BETTOR BEACH (4) is the short-priced favourite for the Group 1 Victoria Oaks and deservedly so. She won the G1 Vicbred Super Series Final for three-year-old fillies in effortless fashion back on September 13 and dominated her Oaks heat last weekend despite being put to pressure by THE QUEENS GAMBIT (7) with a sizzling 25.6 third quarter which she seemed to handle easily. She’s the one that has to go on top. There could be some fireworks early with RIPPLES (6) – who was able to cross WILLOWS GIRL (2) from similar draws before being run down by that rival in the other qualifier – likely to launch again. I’m not sure Mark Pitt did everything he could to hold RIPPLES (6) there, so perhaps WILLOWS GIRL (2) can dig up to hold out the early challenge with BETTOR BEACH (4) then likely to find the top. THE QUEENS GAMBIT (7) ran well in the heat from a back row draw and it’ll be interesting to see what she does now drawn on the front line, while RIPPLES (6) and SWEET IRISH LOCH (3) are the other leading hopes.
SELECTIONS: BETTOR BEACH (4), WILLOWS GIRL (2), THE QUEENS GAMBIT (7), RIPPLES (6)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: OUR SUNSET DELIGHT (5) is emergency for the SEN Victoria Cup and gains a start here if there’s no scratchings from the night’s big feature. He looks very well placed, particularly if he’s able to work forward and assume control. Last weekend in the Smoken Up Sprint, he led, handed to Fighter Command, went straight past him in the straight and just missed Bulletproof Boy who had all the momentum. That followed two dominant wins at Menangle. CIGANO (6) was breathtaking coming from off speed with a personal last half of 53.25 while running down Wicked Confession to score brilliantly at Melton on October 2. He’s very fast and might be too slick with the right trip. COASTAL DRIVE (2) sat parked and won a much easier race than this at Geelong a fortnight ago and has claims if he’s able to find the fence, while multiple free-for-all winner YAMBUKIAN (9) is first-up in more than a year but trialled nicely at Melton for his return and oozes class. GHOST OF TIME (4), HESITATE (7) and TRIPLE EIGHT (8) are others that could win without surprising.
SELECTIONS: OUR SUNSET DELIGHT (5), CIGANO (6), COASTAL DRIVE (2), YAMBUKIAN (9)
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: JACCKA EVAN (7) has been very impressive since arriving from New Zealand, winning his first two starts at Wagga and Kilmore before an unlucky third at Melton last time out. His win sitting parked to the handy Atua Magic two back was very tough, and he looked ready to sprint past rivals but couldn’t get clear late when third to Royal Appointment. Reckon he’s pretty handy, so happy his way. SCHWARZ (8) was second-up back in the care of Emma Stewart when he worked forward from the back row, found the top and held on for victory at Geelong a fortnight ago. It was a good win without being amazing, and he’s a nice, progressive type from a powerful yard so must be respected. MY LITTLE BO (3) is first-up following a break and trialled really nicely at Melton for her return, while ISOLATION (6) was plain last time out behind winner OLLIES THE BOSS (5) at Geelong, but is worth another chance based on his form from earlier in the campaign. Not much would surprise here!
BACK: JACCKA EVAN (7) – 1 unit (each-way)
SELECTIONS: JACCKA EVAN (7), SCHWARZ (8), MY LITTLE BO (3), ISOLATION (6)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R1 #4 NEATNTIDY – 1 unit (each-way)
R2 #4 HALLEBESOFINE – 2 units (win)
R5 #1 I AM WILMA – 2 units (win)
R6 #8 KINGMAN – 2 units (place)
R9 #7 JACCKA EVAN – 1 unit (each-way)
EARLY QUADDIE
4,5,6,10/1,4,8,9/2,4,7,11/1,3,4,9
QUADDIE
1,6,7,9/3/4/5,6
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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