Ryan Phelan has your tips, strategy and Quaddies for the eight races at Swan Hill.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: DIAMOND ECLIPSE (3) will no doubt have a look at the lead, being a speedy type off the arm with James Herbertson aboard. He’s also dropping back from tougher company and difficult draws at Melton, including racing in FFA company last time out. He looks well placed under this ratings scale and is open to sharp improvement. TELEMACHUS (1) drops back to provincial grade after racing in strong company at Melton, and the last time he did that he was a winner at Ballarat in July, when able to lead all the way from the same draw. He’s a horse who’s been in the Black Book for quite some time, but often strikes a difficult field, map or luck in running. He does again face some handy types, but he should get his chance late to bounce back to winning form. HOT DEAL (5) is clearly the best-rated horse in the event, almost double much of the opposition on the class scale. His map looks a little sticky in terms of finding cover, but he must be respected. THESTATESMAN (9) is the knockout horse should those off the front row overcook things. Whilst he’s commonly viewed as being at his best in front, sectionally he can come home strongly with the right tempo. HELLOVATIME (2) has a soft draw but is up in class, while AMPHIJET (4) will come out hard and be map-dependent, but both have minor claims.
BACK: DIAMOND ECLIPSE (3) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: DIAMOND ECLIPSE (3); TELEMACHUS (1), HOT DEAL (5), THESTATESMAN (9)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: SPORTING RAGE (4) is racing in terrific form of late and his chances are always improved by the opportunity to show his gate speed. He will be stamped urgent here to look for the lead and is coming off a career-peak mile rate, albeit from behind the leader where he had every chance. The distance is in his favour to go all the way, and he is a winner at this track.
OWEN THE SAINTS (1) gets a draw that could see him use enough speed to potentially map behind the leader here. His best performances come when mapping close with cover, as evidenced by his win back in June. He’s open to sharp improvement and is a strong winning chance if the top pick is vulnerable late. MISTER JIMARINGLE (8) was a winner in this grade three runs back and has just found things a bit rich his past couple. The soft draw will help him be strong late if they go too hard. AMERICAN GUY (2) is racing better than his form may suggest, maps softly and has minor claims, as do HELLAVASTORY (3) and LEONARD (5) if the map and tempo work out.
BACK: SPORTING RAGE (4) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: SPORTING RAGE (4), OWEN THE SAINTS (1), MISTER JIMARINGLE (8), AMERICAN GUY (2)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: ALTA BAYAMO (9) returned to winning form last start when able to lead and ran very good time for this grade. Although he gets a different set-up now, those sectionals are hard to ignore against this opposition, and with Herbertson committing again, it only adds further confidence.
MEGAWATTS (3) could be open to sharp improvement here, drawing more favourably over the middle trip to race in a better position than what she’s been accustomed to of late. She was a winner here in July when able to race handy over this same distance and beat arguably a stronger field than she meets here. She could represent nice value on an each-way basis. THEROUX (5) has enjoyed a good season, racing largely in concession races. He’s often a difficult horse to map, but when Alford has been aboard in recent times, he’s gained plenty of market attention, and he’s a strong chance. IAMAWINGATE (2) looks to get a comfortable lead from the soft draw, but whether he holds or takes cover is the question. His best form does come in weaker grade, but Herbertson is a plus and he will no doubt be popular in the market. OVER THE LINE (7) is racing well but has a tricky draw and is up in grade.
BACK: ALTA BAYAMO (9) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ALTA BAYAMO (9), MEGAWATTS (3), THEROUX (5), IAMAWINGATE (2)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: WICKED MITZI (4) is yet to win in nine attempts this season, but in her defence, she’s often had tricky draws and set-ups to overcome. She now has a favourable draw to use her gate speed and look for the top end over the short trip, which she loves. Her only try at this track was good behind a smart one when they ran time, and this looks much more suitable.
KIA ORA BEAUTY (8) was a winner when able to lead from the pole three starts back, but the back row doesn’t help here. Although she can be a little hard to catch, Herbertson goes back aboard, and the last time that happened she was a winner at Shepparton. KATUNGA EXPRESS (7) is another who always seems to draw poorly but often tends to be map-negative regardless. He comes off a good second last start at Melton, where he sat parked and they ran quick time. He’s a solid chance once again. SCOOTER LOU (5) is a last-start winner at Melton but had all the favours there from the inside draw and was able to outsprint them late. That’s good form for this, but the map is a bit sticky. KING KASEY (1) is up in grade, but the favourable draw should ensure a positive map and give her every chance to be in the mix.
BACK: WICKED MITZI (4) – 1.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: WICKED MITZI (4), KIA ORA BEAUTY (8), KATUNGA EXPRESS (7), SCOOTER LOU (5)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: Tricky race with a mix of ages, 2yo and up, first starters, different form lines and some bad-mannered types.
GREAT HORIZON (4) goes on top, if for no other reason than she is the most reliable trotter in the race. She’s clean-gaited and shows good early gate speed to get the right map here. Her recent runs have been okay, placing four times from eight starts this season, and she could potentially be the last one standing based on exposed form.
PARDRAY (6) is a 3yo filly who has shown positive glimpses of form, but she’s also shown bad manners, as she did last time, so tread warily. You get the “Herb Factor” here, which is a major advantage in these races where the form can’t always be relied upon. GLOBAL ELITE (3) is a 3yo filly having her second start after a solid debut at Kilmore, where she finished second. This class looks suitable for her to go one better. SOLO SAPPHIRE (2) ran second three starts back and was unlucky not to take the race out after being held up at a vital stage. Her last couple, whilst beaten a long way, were in much tougher grade.
WHOSHOTTHEPIEMAN (1) is a 3yo gelding who is second-up from a break after getting it wrong under standing-start conditions last time out. He didn’t trot that well throughout, but that was only his second outing for the new stable and he did have market support. BROTHER THOMAS (7) is the only 2yo in the race but does have an SP profile that suggests he’s better than his exposed form.
SELECTIONS: GREAT HORIZON (4), PARDRAY (6), GLOBAL ELITE (3), SOLO SAPPHIRE (2)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: AMADA VILLMA (2) will find this much more suitable than her last outing, where she struck a strong line-up and they ran time while she was forced to sit parked. This is her best draw in some time to press forward and potentially find a more comfortable lead over the short trip. There doesn’t look to be much pressure, which may allow her to pinch a quarter and be hard to run down.
HIGHVIEW HAMMER (6) has very good gate speed and normally likes to hand over for cover, so may map perfectly behind the top pick after a retake move. He will get his chance late if that map eventuates. ESPERANZA (1) is a last-start winner at Kilmore, where she mapped perfectly and was able to overcome them in a slow mile rate. She has claims again from the soft draw. CRESCO THREEPEAT (7) has been performing well of late, finding the right tempo in his races, as he’s a tough type who grinds into his finish. WHERES WOOD WOOD (3) and MAJOR MAURIE (5) have sticky draws but have minor place claims.
SELECTIONS: AMADA VILLMA (2), HIGHVIEW HAMMER (6), ESPERANZA (1), CRESCO THREEPEAT (7)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: SKADI (2) looks a good map bet here with ace driver James Herbertson aboard. She looks well drawn with the mare’s allowance and should map behind the speed. She’s had one trial leading into this, so her fitness levels should be sound, and the likely moderate closing fractions will give her a strong chance along the passing lane.
MYNAMEISRUBY (3) deserves another chance despite going down as a well-supported favourite at Shepparton. She had to work a little too hard early there, but her form prior had been sound, and she does seem to have a liking for this track. OHHEMJAY CRESCO (4) was well supported into odds-on last time out and was fair to the line, although under pressure a long way out. He’s worth another chance in this line-up. ROCKIN CHARMER (1) is first-up from a break off two fair trials. He was quite good last preparation for the stable, and from the soft draw has claims, at least for the minor end.
BACK: SKADI (2) – 1.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: SKADI (2), MYNAMEISRUBY (3), OHHEMJAY CRESCO (4), ROCKIN CHARMER (1)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: BETSY ANNE (3) reunites with Herbertson, which is a key booking considering his strike rate on the mare. He’s not missed a place in his last four drives on her and has either won or gone close when she has been able to lead, which I fancy she can do here. She’s open to sharp improvement on what she’s produced lately.
CONNIES PRESIDENT (5) raced against the pacers last time, so it was no surprise to see the beaten margin there, but his form prior saw him finish in the money in five straight runs, including two wins. He has gate speed and will be looking to map positively.
THE CHOOK (6) has run some good races this preparation but remains winless. On her effort three starts back she’s a strong chance here, but she needs to lift on her last couple. WALKIN UNDERSTARZ (7) has placed four times from nine starts this season, but is expected to map negatively here, so will be dependent on the right tempo to genuinely threaten.
SELECTIONS: BETSY ANNE (3), CONNIES PRESIDENT (5), THE CHOOK (6), WALKIN UNDERSTARZ (7)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R1 #3 DIAMOND ECLIPSE – 2.5 units (win)
R2 #4 SPORTING RAGE – 2.5 units (win)
R3 #9 ALTA BAYAMO – 2 units (win)
R4 #4 WICKED MITZI – 1.5 units (win)
R7 #2 SKADI – 1.5 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
1,3/1,4,8/3,5,9/4,7,8
QUADDIE
1,2,3,4,6/1,2,6,7/2,3,4/3,5,6
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licenced bookmaker.
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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