Goodform Gameplan: Geelong Saturday September 4

As is often the case by this stage of the week I hope as many punters as possible took the $4.4 about DOT THE EYE (2) earlier in the week. If he leads, he looks the winner, if not, life could be tougher and $3 right now is about the lowest price we’d take. The best ‘overs’ in the contest is STINGRAY TARA (6). He’s got a big class edge on most of these and is too tempting to ignore at $15. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$25 Win DOT THE EYE (2) at $2.80 or better 

$5 Win & $10 Place STINGRAY TARA at $8.50 or better

I Tweeted on Thursday night about the early value in this trotting event and, at the time, that was via LITTLE YANKEE (2) and NORQUAY (5). There’s an argument that NORQUAY (5) and perhaps POWDERKEG (7) still represent value, but the market re-calibration has made things tricky so I’m now staying out. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that I Am Pegasus (10) will win)

With doubts around how screwed down IMMAORIJET (4) will be fresh and his two major threats at their right price or shorter we’re steering clear once again here aside from Early Quads. It is, however, worth noting the exceptional support for CHISSY (2) who opened $17 and was $5 at time of writing. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that Imamaorijet (4), Swiss Miss (9) or Celtic Cash (11 will win)

I do apologise if this is cruelling a few nights but this 3YO Trot is another very difficult punting affair. 

KEAYANG NINJA (6) and LOCKSLEY LOVER (2) are the most exciting youngsters engaged so backing both may be the way to go but I’m stayi9ng out and working through Early Quads I stead once more. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that Keayang Ninja (6) or Locksley Lover (2) will win)

TANGO TARA (8) has these on toast the way he’s gone his last couple but at $1.35 we need to play exotics in my opinion. In a way I’m taking on HEZACROCWATCHER (2) running second but we’ve carved our three combos up in such a way that a few different things can still happen through the lower podium positions and we’ll still get a collect. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 4,10/ 1,2,4,10: $30 gets 500% 

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 4,10/ 6,10: $10 gets 250% 

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 1,2/ 1,2,4,10: $15 gets 250%

If MISTER FORTUNIA (5) crosses to lead here our ticket is confetti but I’m confident enough that BLUE CHIP DELIGHT (1) will lead that I’m playing my top four tips in two separate tricks with the favourite to finish first or second. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

1/ 2,8,11/ 2,8,11: $20 gets 333.33% 

2,8,11/ 1/ 2,8,11: $20 gets 333.33%

I’m in no doubt about the fact that the two best horses here are WESTERN SONADOR (2) and WOLF STRIDE (8) and as a result I’m confident they’ll run first or second or first and third at very worst. Having confidence in that concept helps us attack the race a range of different ways. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 2,8/ 2,8/ 3,5: $20 gets 500% 

Flexi Trifecta: 2,8/ 2,8/ 1,4,6: $15 gets 250% 

Flexi Trifecta: 2,8/ 3,5/ 8,4: $5 gets 125%

If he rolls forward early, then gets cover from MCLOVIN (7) then MAORI LAW (6) is a clear second pick and some chance of upsetting the hot fave but if not, things open up a little. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 6/ 1,2,7: $12 gets 400% 

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 1,2,7/ 1,2,6,7: $18 gets 200%

Look, I’m not overly keen here, but I do think my top four tips will harbour the Trick so a small bet in that regard looks the way to go with a little saver trick just in case. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Box Trifecta: 2,4,5 & 8 ($24 gets 100%) 

Flexi Trifecta: 2,4,5,8/ 2,4,5,8/ 1,7 ($6 gets 25%)

There was $21 available about RIVER PATROL (3) early which seemed huge overs but you can still get $11 and if he leads as expected then they leave him be he can make them pay or at least run a drum to deliver us a profit. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$10 Each Way RIVER PATROL (3) at $6 or better