Goodform Gameplan: Melton Sat 10th October

Very tough race to open the card. On face value JEAN LUC (1) should win but there’s an old rule in punting that you shouldn’t back inconsistent horses at shortish quotes just because they look to have found their right race so I’m siding with value in the form of SOFALA (4) and OFF THE RADAR (3) – who has been kind to us previously – at much better odds.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$10 Each Way on SOFALA (4) at $7 or better

$5 Each Way on OFF THE RADAR at $16 or better

Something about ACT NOW (3) makes me a little uneasy but he has just drawn so much better than his key threats over the short trip that he should lead and win with the advantage of his excellent gate speed. That being said I see little advantage in smashing him straight out at $1.60 so we’re going to take an exotic route instead.

SUGGESTED BET:

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1,10,11/ 1,5,9,10,11: $30 gets 250%

I was pretty keen on Sahara Sirocco in this event but he was scratched this morning so we’ve had to re-jig things. I’ve stuck very fat with TERRYRAMA (9) for some time so I’m going to side with him again via multiples knowing that his only realistic threats are ABOUTTIME (8) and CATCH A MOMENT (13).

SUGGESTED BET:

Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 8,13/ 4,5,7,8,11,12,13: $15 gets 125%

Flexi Trifecta: 8,13/ 9/ 4,5,7,8,11,12,13: $15 gets 125%

The money has finally started to come for ROGUE WAVE (8). She opened $2.90 and had only moved slightly until this morning. She is now $2.30 and I think she’ll start odds-upon. Look for her to trail almost certain leader PLATINUM SPARKLE (1) and win via the Sprint Lane if she does. Our only real concern is the polemarker handing up to TOUGH TILLY (7) but that should not happen.

SUGGESTED BET:

$40 Win ROGUE WAVE (8) at $2 or better

The drift is on for DANCE CRAZE (2) and the only reason I can conceive that this might be the case is that punters are worried she’ll make an early error if the pressure goes on. I’m happy to suggest that won’t happen and is she doesn’t I think she’s near a moral given she’ll either lead or trail and is the best trotter in the land at present.

SUGGESTED BET:

$30 Win DANCE CRAZE at $2.20 or better

Sometimes a man must know his limits and this race is too hard for me. To my mind there are up to 10 winning hopes and ever since markets were framed I have felt KASBAH KID (13) looks overs given he can certainly figure in the finish should they go berserk in transit. He is currently back out to $41 and for a spec bet that’s good enough for me.

SUGGESTED BET:

$2 Win & $8 Place KASBAH KID (13) at $26 or better

The 2020 Victoria Cup is an incredibly hard race to read from a Map perspective and given the Map is so important in a race of this magnitude punting becomes very tough indeed. That being said LOCHINVAR ART (4) is out to a backable price now so having a lash on him seems better policy than trying to concoct convoluted exotics. If that was the path you chose however, LOCHINVAR ART (4) is very unlikely to miss top three regardless of circumstance so you could build combinations around him as the rover if you so desired.

SUGGESTED BET:

$20 Win LOCHINVAR ART (4) at $2.50 or better

This is another tough race to tackle given PACIFICO DREAM (1) should win if he leads but there’s no certainty that he’ll lead and even if he does he may need to run spectacular time for success. That leaves us in no-man’s land as he’s $1.80 so playing one speculative Trick becomes our most sensible option.

SUGGESTED BET:

Flexi Trifecta: 1,11/ 1,5,8,11/ 1,4,5,6,7,8,11: $30 gets 100%

There are a couple of massively underrated runners in this race. Both JUST BELIEVE (7) and CRUISIN AROUND (11) are good enough to figure with luck but I’m still having a straight out bet on MAJESTUOSO (13) because I think he’d be no more than $5 from a good draw in the Bill Collins so $3 seems generous; not very generous, but generous nonetheless.

SUGGESTED BET:

$20 Win MAJESTUOSO (13) at $3 or better.

I honestly expected that when minimum bet laws opened up this morning ELITE STRIDE (10) would come in from $1.85 to $1.40 at best but that hasn’t happened so rather than play funny buggers we are just going to launch on him as I feel he’s totally gilt-edged.

SUGGESTED BET:

$60 Win ELITE STRIDE (10) at $1.60 or better

IM ANOTHERMASTERPIECE (5) is graded to destroy these so he’s an easy headliner for exotic wagers and then we can play a little wide. Given the potential for value this is probably the best exotic betting event on the card.

SUGGESTED BET:

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 1,9,12,13/ 1,2,8,9,12,13: $60 gets 300%