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Race 1

Confidence:
 

 

I wanted to back ZAREM (13) here if he came up a decent price but $4.50 is too short so I’m leaning toward a small Each Way play on ANYWHERE HUGO (7) instead. He was probably flattered a little winning last start but recent signs have been encouraging and he’s too good when right to be left alone at double figure odds. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$10 Each Way on ANYWHERE HUGO (7) at $10 or better 

Race 2

Confidence:
 

 

Again, I had delusions of grandeur here that MY SKYPOCKET (11) might open at cricket score odds and I would have had a good go at those odds but $13 is close to rock bottom from the draw so either bet early or more likely wait for him to potentially drift late. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$10 Each Way on MY SKYPOCKET (11) at $12 or better 

Race 3

Confidence:
 

 

It might look poison on paper but this is actually a nice betting race. SPELLBOUND (9) looks the untouchable winner and with limited chances to fill out the dais we can watch this contest knowing our risk is minimal and our chance to profit nicely very real. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 4,5/ 4,5,7,8: $60 gets 100% 

Race 4

Confidence:
 

 

This is an ugly betting race on almost every level. If I’m being honest the best opportunity for wagering I can find is laying the $1.08 fave YIANNI (9). There’s no doubt he’s the best horse engaged and should absolutely win but if JAWBREAKER (3) parks him he already has a little problem. Even if he doesn’t this is a horse that galloped twice first-up so whoever is backing him at the crazy odds has more money than sense. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Consider laying YIANNI (6) at an extremely short quote 

Race 5

Confidence:
 

 

Despite not seeming like a short course horse ARGGGHHH (4) boasts an exceptional record over the sprint trip and five of his nine wins have been in races worth $20K-plus. He was also huge first-up and can be forgiven for finishing well back in a brutally run race last start. He is not my top tip but may be the best value proposition all night at double figure odds. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$15 Each Way on ARGGGHHH (4) at $7 or better 

Race 6

Confidence:
 

 

KRAFTY BART (10) has been at enigma at times but it feels like he came of age during the Mildura Cup carnival and, on ability, he looks capable of reaching much higher levels than the race he contests tonight. If he shortens into red figures it’s tough to launch from a second line draw in a big field but at yours-for-theirs he is too tempting to ignore. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 Win on KRAFTY BART (10) at $2 or better 

Race 7

Confidence:
 

 

To be honest, I couldn’t even guarantee that EXPENSIVE EGO (4) will finish up being the best horse to come out of this Group 1 final but with his huge barrier draw advantage and the virtual certainty that he’ll lead it’s amazingly tough to see how he gets rolled. With PACIFICO DREAM (6) looking a little flat in his heat and the fact he’ll likely do stacks of work I think he rates clearly below MACH DAN (9) as second pick and may even miss a drum which is why we’re playing exotics a few different ways. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 9/ 6: $30 gets 3000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 6/ 9: $10 gets 1000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 9/ 5,7,10: $30 gets 1000% 

Race 8

Confidence:
 

 

Despite having a massive opinion of him and tipping him on top I’m a little staggered by how short GENERAL DODGE (7) is here in such a quality race. That being said if he leads and dictates as expected he should win and the big class differentials SHOULD make the targeted exotics outlined below both safe and profitable. As a little hedge however I’m also having a little EW saver on MAX DELIGHT (8) as he seems disrespected at $6.50 for a horse getting more and more comfortable racing at this level. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 8,10/ 8,9,10: 

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 8,10/ 5,6: 

$10 Each Way on MAX DELIGHT (8) at $5 or better 

Race 9

Confidence:
 

 

She’s only $3.50 the drum in early markets which is a bit rude but if ARGH ME HEARTY (1) replicates her luckless heat run here she looks a massive chance of filling a podium position. If you believe she can kick through early and PELOSI (3) is the only one to cross her then a decent drum bet is strongly advised. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Place on ARGH ME HEARTY (1) at $3.20 the place or better 

Race 10

Confidence:
 

 

We won’t make heaps put of the last but I’m confident there are only two winning chances and they’re both early overs. If HULI NIEN (7) remembers how good he is after finally breaking through last start he’ll probably blow them away but AZZA (3) is also racing in great form and seems the clear legitimate danger. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$40 Win on HULI NIEN (7) at $2.20 or better 

$10 Win on AZZA (3) at $5 or better 

 

Early Quaddie

 

With Spellbound in this Early Quad it’s more like a treble so we will need a value winner in either the first or second leg. The good news is that many will play this bet type super skinny fearing a tiny dividend for the very reason mentioned above so if we get something up at $10 in either of the early legs – or maybe even both – the result could be wildly inflated. 

4,5,7,9,13/ 1,2,3,8,9,11/ 9/ 6: $60 gets 200% 

4,5,7,9,13/ 1,2,3,8,9,11/ 9/ 3: $20 gets 66.67% 

CONFIDENCE:

 

Quaddie

 

Leg one is everything in tonight’s Quad. It’s actually possible we could get blown out there but if we don’t, and particularly if Jilliby Lorenzo goes under, we can potentially start getting excited. I have played very heavily through Krafty Bart so there’s plenty of weight of weight on him but if we get through to race eight it’s quite likely that any of our three nominated runners could win and reward us with a similar, profitable result. 

3,4,10,11/ 10/ 4/ 7: $40 gets 1000% 

3,4,10,11/ 10/ 4/ 8,10: $$40 gets 500% 

3,4,10,11/ 1,4,7,8/ 4/ 7: $32 gets 200% 

3,4,10,11/ 1,4,7,8/ 4/ 8,10: $28 gets 87.5% 

CONFIDENCE:

 

Summary

 

Win, place, each way

Race 1:
$10 Each Way on ANYWHERE HUGO (7) at $10 or better
Race 2:
$10 Each Way on MY SKYPOCKET (11) at $12 or better
Race 4:
Consider laying YIANNI (6) at an extremely short quote
Race 5:
$15 Each Way on ARGGGHHH (4) at $7 or better
Race 6:
$40 Win on KRAFTY BART (10) at $2 or better
Race 8:
$10 Each Way on MAX DELIGHT (8) at $5 or better
Race 9:
$20 Place on ARGH ME HEARTY (1) at $3.20 the place or better
Race 10:
$40 Win on HULI NIEN (7) at $2.20 or better

Exotics

Race 3:
Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 4,5/ 4,5,7,8: $60 gets 100%
Race 7:
Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 9/ 6: $30 gets 3000%
Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 6/ 9: $10 gets 1000%
Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 9/ 5,7,10: $30 gets 1000%
Race 8:
Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 8,10/ 8,9,10:
Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 8,10/ 5,6:

Early Quaddie

4,5,7,9,13/ 1,2,3,8,9,11/ 9/ 6: $60 gets 200%
4,5,7,9,13/ 1,2,3,8,9,11/ 9/ 3: $20 gets 66.67%

Quaddie

3,4,10,11/ 10/ 4/ 7: $40 gets 1000%
3,4,10,11/ 10/ 4/ 8,10: $$40 gets 500%
3,4,10,11/ 1,4,7,8/ 4/ 7: $32 gets 200%
3,4,10,11/ 1,4,7,8/ 4/ 8,10: $28 gets 87.5%