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Race 1

Confidence:
 

 

The opening event is replete with uncertainties so it’s not well suited for launching on favourites or playing skinny multiples. Instead we’re searching for value. And on that score the best plays are ROSARITO MISS (10) who doesn’t know how to run a bad race at the minute and LOTTIE MOON (4) who’s at very serious odds and looks to have a hint of untapped potential. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$10 Each Way on LOTTIE MOON (4) at $14 or better 

$10 Each Way on ROSARITO MISS (10) at $12 or better

Race 2

Confidence:
 

 

This race has been tossed from pillar to post by scratchings to the point where it’s almost unrecognisable from the one I originally analysed; as a result I’m respectfully steering clear while wishing all combatants the very best of luck. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that VILLACI (1) will win) 

Race 3

Confidence:
 

 

I’m slightly confused by this 3YO affair on various levels but I’m confident the top four chances are better than the rest so I’m happy to play a couple of speculative exotics to keep things ticking along. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

7,8/ 5,6,7,8/ 5,6,7,8: $24 gets 200% 

6/ 5,7,8/ 5,7,8: $6 gets 100%

Race 4

Confidence:
 

 

The price assessors have done a pretty sweet job of getting this high priced Claimer right so there’s not a heap to work with. That being said I did make WATCH PULP FICTION (6) my best roughie so if $16+ becomes available there you can punt and likewise FORTY THIEVES (5) will start to appeal if you find something like $3.50 close to start time ass percentages close in. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that FORTY THIEVES (5) will win) 

Race 5

Confidence:
 

 

There’s a bit going on here; but on a night where options can sometimes appear limited at least we have the chance to express some punting creativity. And so we will. Those new to my madnesses may get a little confused but if you follow instructions a whole new world may offer itself to you. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 5/ 9: $12 gets 1200% 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 4/ 9: $8 gets 800% 

Flexi Trifecta: 4,5/ 9/ 4,5: $8 gets 400% 

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 5/ 3,6,8,10,11: $14 gets 280% 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 4/ 3,6,8,10,11: $8 gets 160%

Race 6

Confidence:
 

 

Time will probably be against folks here but the way I see this race there are only two primary chances and a Bundle Bet at even money actually appeals. If they walk in front then EUREKA (6) should lead and win. If they run in transit MAJESTIC CRUISER (5) should sweep on by. The other alternative was to ‘risk’ BULLYS DELIGHT (4) and that is still semi-appealing at $4 given he’s very unlikely to win whichever way you slice or dice the contest. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Bundle Bet on MAJESTIC CRUISER (5) and EUREKA (6) at $2 or better

Race 7

Confidence:
 

 

Those that took the $5 about SLEEPEE (6) have options if they need them but I’m sticking pretty fat with her at $2.70 as I’m bullish she’ll find a way to win. It’s also worth considering the option of ‘risking’ PEREGRINE PHOENIX (2) and ALDEBARAN CRESCENT (4) as both horses, while talented; remain massively under the odds tackling this grade of race. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$50 Win on SLEEPEE (6) at $2.50 or better (if you haven’t invested at the better price)

Race 8

Confidence:
 

 

We will need some fortune here and also the courage to put a line through his last start performance but a small wager on SONNY WEAVER (8) seems almost required given he’s the best horse in it on previous evidence and can swallow these up with a hint of predicted pressure. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$20 Win SONNY WEAVER (8) at $3 or better

Race 9

Confidence:
 

 

I am not a ‘replay’ punter per se. Every race is its own puzzle and I’ve always found those stubbornly backing black-bookers at their following start won’t succeed long-term as there’s more to winning races than just going well. That being said I’ve been very taken with ZAREM (5) at each of his past three starts and if he sips across to lead then trail as expected he’s perfectly placed to win again tonight. I wanted $4 but I’m so bullish I’ll take a little less. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 Win ZAREM (5) at $3.50 or better

Race 10

Confidence:
 

 

At time of writing this Game Plan MORGAN MYLEE (4) is locked into her opening quote of $2.60. If you see no meaningful move then consider staying out but if she’s rapidly moved into $2.20 or shorter then take that as a sign to get involved as Andy Gath can work wonders with trotters and this girl has always had serious talent regardless. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Nothing significant (unless you see big market support for MORGAN MYLEE (4)) Confidence rating that MORGAN MYLEE (4) will win.

Race 11

Confidence:
 

 

It worries me that FYNN FROST (7) is so short here but I simply can’t ignore how well WOW YOU CAN DANCE (4) went here at Melton last weekend and I also suspect he’s a great chance of leading with River Patrol scratched. I’ve taken the $4 and I reckon anything better than $3 is decent going. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Win WOW YOU CAN DANCE (4) at $3 or better

 

Early Quaddie

 

Even though it’s not my organic nature I’m finding myself playing for value with single Quads more than ever and that’s what we’re doing here also. You can tighten this up or stagger it in obvious areas but you also risk missing the kill should a Lottie Moon or Watch Pulp Fiction salute. 

2,4,8,10,11/ 1,2,4/ 5,6,7,8/ 4,5,6: $60 gets 33.33%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Quaddie

 

I can understand $200 seems steep to invest on a Quad but I love this Quad tonight. Most of the legs seem limited in terms of chances but they also warrant staggers which is where I live my life. The last combo here is probably only required if you’ve backed Sleepee. I clearly have so I’m throwing it in. Also be vigilant about laying off in the final leg should we come to an unlikely event where dividends appear through the roof. 

4,5/ 5,6/ 6/ 2,4,5,8: $32 gets 200% 

4,5/ 5,6/ 3,4,8,9,10/ 2,4,5,8: $$80 gets 100% 

4,5/ 3,8,9/ 6/ 2,4,5,8: $24 gets 100% 

9/ 5,6/ 6/ 2,4,5,8: $4 gets 50% 

4,5/ 3,8,9/ 3,4,8,9,10/ 2,4,5,8: $60 gets 50%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Summary

 

Win, place, each way

Race 1:
$10 Each Way on LOTTIE MOON (4) at $14 or better
$10 Each Way on ROSARITO MISS (10) at $12 or better
Race 6:
$30 Bundle Bet on MAJESTIC CRUISER (5) and EUREKA (6) at $2 or better
Race 7:
$50 Win on SLEEPEE (6) at $2.50 or better (if you haven’t invested at the better price)
Race 8:
$20 Win SONNY WEAVER (8) at $3 or better
Race 9:
$40 Win ZAREM (5) at $3.50 or better
Race 11:
$30 Win WOW YOU CAN DANCE (4) at $3 or better

Exotics

Race 3:
7,8/ 5,6,7,8/ 5,6,7,8: $24 gets 200%
6/ 5,7,8/ 5,7,8: $6 gets 100%
Race 5:
Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 5/ 9: $12 gets 1200%
Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 4/ 9: $8 gets 800%
Flexi Trifecta: 4,5/ 9/ 4,5: $8 gets 400%
Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 5/ 3,6,8,10,11: $14 gets 280%
Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 4/ 3,6,8,10,11: $8 gets 160%

Early Quaddie

2,4,8,10,11/ 1,2,4/ 5,6,7,8/ 4,5,6: $60 gets 33.33%

Quaddie

4,5/ 5,6/ 6/ 2,4,5,8: $32 gets 200%
4,5/ 5,6/ 3,4,8,9,10/ 2,4,5,8: $$80 gets 100%
4,5/ 3,8,9/ 6/ 2,4,5,8: $24 gets 100%
9/ 5,6/ 6/ 2,4,5,8: $4 gets 50%
4,5/ 3,8,9/ 3,4,8,9,10/ 2,4,5,8: $60 gets 50%