Goodform Gameplan: Melton Sat 29th May

I’m really looking forward to this race as a contest and did want to play it in isolation but the current prices are a little close to the mark so overs aren’t super forthcoming. I do think if either PATSBEACHSTORM (8) or ICONIC MAJOR (11) get out to $4.50 you can back wither one and those that snared $9 about SANTA CASA BEACH (5) early in the week are already well placed. 

SUGEESTED BET:  

Nothing significant (Confidence that PATSBEACHSTORM (8) or ICONIC MAJOR (11) will win.)

If he does everything right COVER OF DARKNESS (9) should be a class above these but he’s first-up and not the kind of horse it’s easy to plough into so something small on a 1 x 3 basis about the flying NEPHEW OF SONOKO (12) looks a reasonable play. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$5 Win & $15 Place on NEPHEW OF SONOKO (12) at $10 or better

The smart punters have well and truly beaten us to it with ALBY TWO CHAINS (8) here but even at $2.60 I’m willing to play. I already felt that DRAIN THE SWAMP (1) would lead before Narutac Prince came out but now he looks the certain frontrunner and if he takes Alby to the lane it should be game over. The only serious threat is BONDI LOCKDOWN (5) for those wanting to hedge in pursuit of a small result either way. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$60 Win ALBY TWO CHAINS (8) at $2.20 or better

JO ROCKS (5) should win but you can leave me right out of this APG fillies’ consolation tonight. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that JO RCKS (5) will win) 

Great little FFA this one, but you are forced to pick your poison. It’s 75% likely that MAX DELIGHT (2) will lead and if he does we have a very peg-dominated race on our hands. There will, however be a big desire to hold up with JILLIBY CHEVY (1) to hold up as potential superstar CODE BAILEY (8) would then receive the perfect first-up journey. For our punting purposes we’re going to trust that Max crosses and potentially revert to in-play options if that doesn’t transpire. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,8/ 1,8: $40 gets 2000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,8/ 5: $20 gets 1000%

If you copped the opening prices of $8 about FIAMMA (2) and $7.50 about IRISH BLACK LABEL (10) your work in tonight’s opening Group 1 is done. Since then the prices have tightened up nicely so we’ll be playing this race through Quads only rather than trying to expose a flaw that isn’t there. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that FIAMMA (2) will win) 

Again, the market has sorted itself out pretty well in this second G1 of the night but I just have this feeling that one or two may try to cross LIGHTNING DAN (1) and if any were successful KHAFAJI (9) would be an odd-son chance in transit. If you got $4 about him well done, $2.70 is good enough for a little speculative investment. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Win KHAFAJI (9) at $2.50 or better

Here is your best Roughie of the night; HE AINT FAKIN (5). Lookin at the way this race will be staged its tough not to predict epic front line speed AND pressure. HE AINT FAKIN (5) doesn’t have the technical weapons some of his rivals do but he is very, very strong and he can genuinely win under the right circumstances at massive odds. ACT NOW (2) should lead and should be fave so if he gets out to $3 he’s also worth a bet. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Win ACT NOW (2) at $3 or better 

$20 Each Way HE AINT FAKIN at $12 or better (currently $34)

TOUGH TILLIES (5) wining here will be the highlight of the night and win she will. Second houll be fought out between JOANNA (9) and ANNTONIA (11) but we can play a little wider for third in our search for value. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 9,11/ 1,2,3,8,9,11 ($40 gets 400%)

DADNDAVE (1) should smash these here but he is not a punting proposition at $1.55 and exotics look ugly so we’re just having one place bet in the event on ITZAMAJORSURPSRISE (2). The way she’s going right now I thought she was the clear danger to the fave and we’re getting $3 which seems very generous indeed. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 Place on ITZAMAJORSURPRISE at $2.80 or better

I’ve got a very funny feeling that if BOY FROM BONDI (7) gets gifted the front here he’ll make life very tough for HONOLUA BAY (8). The fact is he’s probably backable at $3.20 but I’m taking the exotic path instead and still hoping he salutes. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

7,8/ 7,8/ 2,3,4,5: $48 gets 600% 

7,8/ 2,3,4,5/ 7,8: $12 gets 200%

With all due respect I think I’ll let this second tier metro maiden go around without me. My record in these races tells a dire yarn. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that HUGO ROCKS (6) will win)