Goodform Gameplan: Melton Sat 3rd April

LETS MAKE TRACKS (5) is clearly the one to beat here but he’;; still need luck from gate 5 so the $2.40 for him seems light compared to the $5.50 about FLYING SCRIBE (10) who looks pretty well graded. That being said anything shorter than $5.50 about him would pull me up pretty sharply. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$10 Win & $15 Place on FLYING SCRIBE (10) at $5.50 or better only

Those who have listened the recent tutorials I run with pro punters over the last few weeks will know I have one crucial weakness. When horses don’t start as short as I believe they should I question why. I pride myself on my pricing and suspicion gets the best of me when stars of that nature don’t align. All three pros I’ve interviewed believe you should never waver on that front so tonight I won’t. To my eye NARUTAC PRINCE (2) should be $1.30 here but you can still get $1.75 in some quarters. The fact is he’s the almost guaranteed leader and winner so those that prefer win-only wagering or multis can throw him in those. I’m favouring very skinny exotics as I’ll all but certain only three other runners can fight out the two remaining podium positions. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1/ 7,8: $35 gets 1750% 

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 7,8/ 1: $15 gets 750%

The second of tonight’s features is very tough from a punting perspective so I’m taking a little leap of faith. There’s no doubt LOPEZ (1) has heaps of raw talent but she can be scratchy when taken out of his comfort zone and if Snooze Svanosio rips the gate with CLIFTON BABE (6) she’s a decent chance of finding the top. She was $4.10 in her heat and I reckon she was treated with kid gloves. If more aggressive tactics are employed here then the double figure quote appears very generous indeed. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$5 Win & $10 Place on CLIFTON BABE (6) at $14 or better

It’s pretty clear based on SP profile that the warps around HOLZHAUER (10) aren’t massive but I loved his trial win before debut and on debut he looked a ready-made juvenile that can strike some serious early blows. I marked him much shorter than his $9 quote and I’m very happy to back him Each Way at anything near that sort of quote. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Each Way on HOLZHAUER (10) at $5 or better

He’s definitely far from fallible and certainly still learning his craft but I believe HONOLUA BAY (10) is best suited at this stage of his burgeoning career when allowed to balance up early then rip at his own convenience. Not only is he drawn to do that tonight; he’s also found a race where he’s simply graded to win. As I said with Narutac Prince earlier in the night, you can back the fave here straight out or via multis but I’m advocating for exotics as I so often do when finding what I believe are ‘good things’ at red figures. 

SUGGESTED BETS:  

Flexi Trifecta: 10/ 1/ 3,8,11: $30 gets 1000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 10/ 3,8,11/ 1: $10 gets 333.33% 

Flexi Trifecta: 10/ 1/ 2,4,7: $10 gets 333.33%

Let’s speak honestly; this is a very messy race. Most of these horses have had their chance and half done their dash. That being said BRACKENREID (1) will either lead or trail so you can either have an enormous Place Bet if funds allow or back him Each Way at the current $6 quote. One horse that hasn’t yet tested our patience too greatly is LOTTIE MOON (6). I have a very good opinion of this mare and despite the fact everything’s against her here the $15 quote is crazy as I have her rated on top. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$10 Win & $30 Place BRACKENREID (1) at $5.50 or better 

$10 & $30 Place LOTTIE MOON (6) at $12 or better

If you’re the kind of punter that enjoys laying faves who start too short then this might be the race for you. I predicted on SEN Track this week that bookies would open BOOTS ELECTRIC (10) in the red and they have duly followed through. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a good horse, but it’s worth remembering he was 25 to 1 when winning the 4YO Bonanza and he’s now tackling hardened horses from a shocking alley. From my angle I see this event as one I’m letting through to the keeper as I’m playing wide here through Quads and will hopefully get my reward if the fave goes under regardless. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that BOOTS ELECTRIC (10) will get rolled and set our Quads up for stardom)

For the third time tonight I’m uttering the same refrain. I think TANGOINGWITHSIERRA (7) is very near a moral so she is eminently backable on a straight out basis at $1.95 and if you like multis she is another link in that chain. Yet again however I’m offering smaller punters an alternate option vis exotics given I can see only two runners capable of landing the silver medal in THE PANTHEIST (8) and DELIGHTFUL JAZZ (9).  

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 8,9/ 8,9: $40 gets 2000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 8,9/ 3: $10 gets 500% 

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 8,9/ 2,4: $10 gets 250%

Everything in my body and soul wants to let this race go sans my cabbage but as the old adage goes ‘price is king’ and there are two runners going around at odds they shouldn’t who warrant the patronage of our funds. 

SUGGESTED BETS:  

$15 Each Way on SWEET ON YOU (8) at $6 or better 

$5 Each Way on ALLWOODS SUNBEAM (13) at $21 or better

I’ve gotta say I was pretty proud of the comparison I found this week between TORNADO VALLEY (6) and Muhammed Ali and if the great trotter is anything near his best he’ll land the knockout blow again. Truth be told he’s a $1.10 chance here at his best and you’re getting $1.75 so for the FOURTH time tonight the option is yours; back him straight out, play him through multis or follow the multiple wagers outlined below. 

SUGGESTED BETS:  

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 4,7/ 4,7: $40 gets 2000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 4,7/ 3,5: $10 gets 250%