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goodform-gameplan-melton-sat-5th-december

Goodform Gameplan: Melton Sat 5th December

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Race 1

Confidence:
 

 

BEACH MUSIC (2) warrants favouritism here but with her super gate speed EVA MATEO (6) looks a legitimate threat so exotics are available to us as a potentially fruitful option. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi First Four: 2,6/ 2,6/ 1,3,5,7/ 1,3,5,7: $40 gets 166.67%

Race 2

Confidence:
 

 

CHANGE THE PRINT (4) looks the one here and if he leads as expected he’ll almost certainly prevail but I’d prefer to play him through Early Quads than have a straight out best at $2.30 given the possibility RAGNARR (3) may make life tough for him in the early and middle stages. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant

Race 3

Confidence:
 

 

There are a couple of ways to play this race and they both revolve around BRANDLO PRINCE (10). If you like to play without fuss then he is backable at $3.30 but I think it’s even smarter to rove him for first or second in exotics as there are a finite number of horses that can join him on the podium. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 10/ 5,8,9/ 3,5,8,9,11,13: $45 gets 300% 

Flexi Trifecta: 5,8,9/ 10/ 3,5,8,9,11,13: $15 gets 100%

Race 4

Confidence:
 

 

Early doors we could have made a killing here with BLITZERN (5) opening $31 and ANIMADO (6) getting out to $23 but they are both $6.50 now so we’re better off just watching the race and hoping we’ve made smart prior investments. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant

Race 5

Confidence:
 

 

STRUVE (5) is a mercurial beast but he should have this lot covered and if we gets some value home for third a Trifecta play in this event may still be lucrative. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 2,8,9/ 1,2,4,6,7,8,9: $30 gets 200%  

Race 6

Confidence:
 

 

There were a heap of horses you could have backed in this race when markets opened but those odds have all pretty much re-calibrated to where they should be. The only one left at an attractive quote is MAJOR JODI (10) who is only not at his absolute top fluc. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$5 Win & $25 Place MAJOR JODI (10) at $26 or better

Race 7

Confidence:
 

 

I might be missing something here but if MCLOVIN (2) leads and DANCE CRAZE (8) trails him then the latter mare should just win so you can back her at $3 even though better was on offer. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$40 Win on DANCE CRAZE (8) at $2.50 or better

Race 8

Confidence:
 

 

CODE BLACK (7) opened $3.50 but was always going to start favourite here and now comfortably will. I don’t really want to launch at $2 but it’s still good enough so if you missed yet another early boat you can still catch this one. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 on CODE BLACK (7) at $2 or better

Race 9

Confidence:
 

 

I don’t love this race but suspect OZZIE BATTLER (7) will lead so he is value at $10 given his Mildura form is a lot better than people may recognise. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$10 Each Way on OZZIE BATTLER (7) at $7 or better

Race 10

Confidence:
 

 

Want to play a bit tricky here with DIAMONDS N CASH (1) a clear on-top selection but not quite over the line. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 2,4,5/ 2,4,5: $36 gets 600% 

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 1/ 2,5: $4 gets 200%

Race 11

Confidence:
 

 

Not keen to play here so hoping we’re already in front. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant

 

Early Quaddie

 

2,6/ 4/ 10/ 1,3,5,6,9: $30 gets 300% 

2,6/ 4/ 5,8,9,11/ 1,3,5,6,9: $40 gets 100% 

2,6/ 1,2,3,5,9/ 10/ 1,3,5,6,9: $50 gets 100%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Quaddie

 

5/ 1,10,11,13/ 8/ 7: $40 gets 1000% 

5/ 1,10,11,13/ 8/ 2,3: $20 gets 250% 

5/ 1,10,11,13/ 2,7,9,10/ 7: $40 gets 250% 

5/ 3,4,5,9,12/ 8/ 7: $10 gets 200%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Summary

 

Win, place, each way

Race 6:
$5 Win & $25 Place MAJOR JODI (10) at $26 or better
Race 7:
$40 Win on DANCE CRAZE (8) at $2.50 or better
Race 8:
$40 on CODE BLACK (7) at $2 or better
Race 9:
$10 Each Way on OZZIE BATTLER (7) at $7 or better

Exotics

Race 1:
Flexi First Four: 2,6/ 2,6/ 1,3,5,7/ 1,3,5,7: $40 gets 166.67%
Race 3:
Flexi Trifecta: 10/ 5,8,9/ 3,5,8,9,11,13: $45 gets 300%
Flexi Trifecta: 5,8,9/ 10/ 3,5,8,9,11,13: $15 gets 100%
Race 5:
Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 2,8,9/ 1,2,4,6,7,8,9: $30 gets 200%
Race 10:
Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 2,4,5/ 2,4,5: $36 gets 600%
Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 1/ 2,5: $4 gets 200%

Early Quaddie

2,6/ 4/ 10/ 1,3,5,6,9: $30 gets 300%
2,6/ 4/ 5,8,9,11/ 1,3,5,6,9: $40 gets 100%
2,6/ 1,2,3,5,9/ 10/ 1,3,5,6,9: $50 gets 100%

Quaddie

5/ 1,10,11,13/ 8/ 7: $40 gets 1000%
5/ 1,10,11,13/ 8/ 2,3: $20 gets 250%
5/ 1,10,11,13/ 2,7,9,10/ 7: $40 gets 250%
5/ 3,4,5,9,12/ 8/ 7: $10 gets 200%

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