Goodform Gameplan: Melton Sat 8th May

This is nightmarish way to start the card but I keep coming back to CEE CEE IN AMERICA (2). There’s no doubt he is an enigma and not one to be trusted with too much coin but he’s drawn to lead, his last run was super and he will win at his best. The opening price of $6 was very seductive, the current quote of $4.80 less so but it’s still good enough for a slightly-more-than-speculative wager. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$30 Win CEE CEE IN AMERICA (2) at $4 or better 

MORGAN MYLEE (4) isn’t so much better than her rivals here that she’s over the line but she’s in great form, she’s the likely leader and she should be odds-on as a result. Currently we’re getting $2.20 and that’s more than good enough. In the same vein we can certainly attack NO REPUBLIC (1) at $3.40 the drum. To my eye he should hold up early and trail the fave and if that materialises then $3.40 the drum is very tasty indeed. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 Win MORGAN MYLEE (4) at $2 or better 

$30 Place NO REPUBLIC (1) at $2.80 the place or better

SHEFFIELD SPARKY (11) is clearly over the odds here. He was considered good enough to tackle the Melton Plate and acquitted himself very well at that level. Since then he’s dominantly won a heat of this series and with a genuine tempo there’s every hope he’ll repeat the dose tonight. He should be $3 and he’s $7 s we can back him Each Way with confidence. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Each Way SHEFFIELD SPARKY (11) at $5 or better 

We could easily play a conservative multiple here knowing KYVALLEY PIERRO (1) and PLYMOUTH CHUBB (5) will almost certainly finish first and second but there’s every chance we’ll find a way to screw it by playing pretty. To my eye the more elegant option is simply to back our top tip straight out. Even with the reversal of barrier draws I sense PLYMOUTH CHUBB (5) is just a better horse at this stage of their careers and should almost be equal fave rather than the $2.60 we’re currently getting. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Win PLYMOUTH CHUBB (5) at $2.20 or better 

As the week has progressed I’ve become increasingly confident that MR BOHANNON (1) will hold the front. Should that transpire I’m super confident ARGGGHHH (8) is the one. Calling a spade a spade anything can win here so we wouldn’t take silly odds despite our confidence. And we don’t have to. He opened at $6.50 and is still $5.50. If he lobs the trail I see him as a $2.20 hope so this isn’t a difficult race to tackle. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Each Way ARGGGHHH (8) at $4.50 or better 

I’d like to launch on HEZACROCWATCHER (5) in this event but after just two Australian starts he remains only partially exposed so I’d need $2.50 and I’m never going to get it. As a result I’m staying out and playing via Quads only. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that HEZACROCWATCHER (5) will win) 

If HONOLUA BAY (4) explodes to the front as expected here it’s amazingly hard to see any other runner sacrificing themselves by applying any mid-race pressure. That’s a perfect, perfect recipe for a blazing last half and peg domination. The trick then, is to get the map perfectly right. He’ll cop pressure early but I’m confident WILLIE GO WEST (1) will hold up early and trail the fave leaving REACTOR NOW (8) sitting pretty three poles. If that map materialises I’m very confident the Trifecta lies above but we’ll also play a saver in case of unforeseen circumstances. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 1,8/ 1,8: $30 gets 1500% 

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 1,8/ 3,5,7,9,13: $50 gets 500%

I’m very much looking forward to this feature trot as a contest but it’s not a betting affair. It’s unlikely but I’d just love to see the two great warriors SPARKLING SUCCESS (6) and TORNADO VALLEY (9) race somewhere near their best and stage what maybe one last epic contest. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that either TORNADO VALLEY (9) or SPARKLING SUCCESS (6) will win)

I’m far too confused about this Home Grown final for freshman fillies to really launch in any direction so once again we’re staying out and watching for pleasure and reconnaissance. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that ILLAWONG BENITA (5) will win) 

He isn’t the most reliable customer ever to grace a racetrack but TORRID SAINT (10) possesses a proper class edge on his rivals at his best. If FINAL PEACE (4) cruises to the front and dictates terms we’re in bother. If not then I can almost actively visualise TORRID SAINT (10) sweeping straight past these at a proper price. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$30 Each Way TORRID SAINT (10) at $5 or better