Goodform Gameplan: Melton Saturday February 12

KISSMELVIS (9) is very entitles to be short odds in this opening event and should be rightly winning. In fact, if there's a scratching here and he gets off the gate 8 draw, scratch everything that's written here and play a different way. If he is forced to start from the most awkward alley imaginable over a short-course trip, however, I'm willing to back both ROSARITO MISS (2) and MESSERATI (3) at their slightly inflated quotes.

Suggested Bet: 

$5 Win & $15 Place ROSARITO MISS (2) at $6.50 or better & MESSERATI (3) at $7 or better

If you really want to punt in this event, something 1 x 3 on ANDOVER SUN (4) and MADENA SKY (7) might be worthwhile as they represent the biggest overs at time of writing. Reasonably, however, the race is just too hard for any confident assault, so I'm staying out and hoping for value through EQ's.

Suggested Bet:

Nothing significant (Confidence that early favorite Saint Calder will not win)

Funny bet we're going for in this one, but I love it so stick with me. Lovable bridesmaid VILLACCI (1) has made an extraordinary habit of filling the podium of late without winning. The chief reason for this is that he's very strong and proper gifted but lacks elite point-to-point pace. Tonight, from gate one, he'll very likely lob behind the leader. And, again, he'll struggle to win. Despite this, if they go stupid slow, he'll hold on for second and if they go super fact he'll also feature in the finish. I'm aware there's just two place dividends in play, but at $2.30 the place I genuinely believe he's the horse I'm most confident will finish first- or more likely second - of anything engaged.

Suggested Bet:

$40 Place VILLACCI (1) at $2 or better

IM OFF N GONE (5) has panels on these for talent and will find a way to win but she's likely to start even shorter than the $1.40 I marked her. The best plan here is an extended exotic. If we can get ROCKASAKI (4) into second, or the map and speed can give MISS DANGERFIELD (2) an opportunity to finish fourth then we're on. 

Suggested Bet:

Flexi First 4: 5/ 1,4,6/ 1,4,6/ Field: $30 gets 166.67%

YOUAREMY SUNSHINE (11) is my best of the night, but at $1.50 they've offered us precious little chance to take the punting risk. So, here's my advice. Either fashion exotics with the hot-fave to salute and OCTOBER REIGN (1) to finish second, or at worst third, or just take the easy way out like me and back OCTOBER REIGN (1) the drum at $2.10.

Suggested Bet:

$40 Place OCTOBER REIGN at $2 the place or better

It doesn't happen often. but the price assessors have been on their game for this meeting. If WESTERN SONADOR (5) gets out to even money somewhere, have a decent crack. There's no doubting he should win but red figures about a horse that won't lead over a mile and has been through the ringer doesn't float my boat. To be honest, it's not a great exotic opportunity even if you're declaring him.

Suggested Bet:

Nothing significant (Confidence that Western Sonador (5) will win)

If you're a small-profit punter there's a way to back MAJESTUOSO (8), SUNDONS COURAGE (2) and ALWAYS READY (3) for different outlays and still take some sugar tonight. In my humble, they're the only winning hopes. For those that want something slightly warmer to show for their efforts, let's leave ALWAYS READY (3) out and back the other two for something reasonable.

Suggested Bets:

$40 Win MAJESTUOSO (8) at $2.50 or better

$10 Win SUNDONS COURAGE at $8.50 or better

She's rising in grade and draws for trouble, but LA SERENA (10) still seems serious overs at $3.10 tonight. The obvious issue is ZIGZAGZOO (6) receiving the easy lead that he likely will, but all the numbers tell me that LA SERENA (10) can own him if driven aggressively and being trained by Alby Ashwood aggression is almost assured.

Suggested Bet:

$30 Win LA SERENA (10) at $2.50 or better

I can't believe I'm saying this, but AMPLE POWER (3) looks the way to play this final event. I have SIRLETIC (6) clearly on top, and truly believe he'll win, but $1.65 about a horse as mercurial as him doesn't tempt at all. Map-wise AMPLE POWER (3) should lead and trail OZZIE BATTLER (4). From there, they may well race in single file until the 600m and with AMPLE POWER (3) likely to run past the leader and the two class horses forced to run wild numbers to bridge a gap, stranger things have happened.

Suggested Bet:

$10 Win & $20 Place AMPLE POWER (3) at $5.50 or better