Goodform Gameplan: Melton Saturday January 29

Those that follow me on Twitter would know I’ve got four ‘best’ bets tonight and none of them are crazy enough odds to launch straight out. The first of them is SANDAY (5) here. For the purposes of getting involved – which don’t always align with what I’m doing personally – I will advocate for playing SANDAY (5) straight-out here but linking him with others is a better play without infinite punting funds given he’s at evens and he’s not a total lock. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 Win SANDAY (5) at $2 or better

Here’s how I analyze form. Step one is dedicated to initial assessments, and for me that materializes by giving a letter-grade to all runners from A to E. Step two is delving into how the speed map may unfold. By the time I’ve finished those processes I normally have a decent idea about who I’d willingly play and here I was all about VACATION HILL (6) given she was the near-certain leader. Step three is a reminder-session about recent starts, current form, and preferred racing patterns. I didn’t love what I saw from VACATION HILL (6) first-up in Vic last weekend and dumped her as a result. Since then, Andy Gath has turned me around about that, but ultimately there’s too much confusion for me to get involved. If I did, however, I’d back her straight-out and KYVALLEY CHIEF (11) Each Way. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that the real Vacation Hill (6) should win this if she leads as expected)

The cabbage has well and truly arrived for ROCKINGWITHSIERRA (7) since I punted her in the multi/parlay outlined on Twitter but just enough value remains to back her straight out here if you missed the boat. Tactical options will mean plenty in this event, but if our girl can balance up, roll forward, and demand the front, they’ll have an awfully tricky task running her down. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Win ROCKINGWTHSIERRA (7) at $2.70 or better

As always, tactics will prove crucial in the strongest Mercury 80 heat thus far but if the heavily backed BOOTS ELECTRIC (1) leads and BULLETPROOF BOY (2) trails him, the latter horse is my top tip at $6.50 and BOOTS ELECTRIC (1) his only serious threat. Back Bullet, hedge Boots and all should work out fine.  The drift is already on for NSW gun CASH N FLOW (5) and now that it has, expect him to drift wildly from here on in. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$25 Win BULLETPROOF BOY (2) at $4.50 or better 

$20 on BOOTS ELECTRIC (1) at $2.30 or better

I did Tweet earlier this week that there was some value available in this Group 2 co-feature about TRIPLE EIGHT (7) and WESTERN SONADOR (2) to roll the incredibly short-priced favourite EXPENSIVE EGO (9). At the time, I played small myself. On further inspection I’m slightly repulsed by the race from a betting perspective. If you’ve already played I advise we leave things as they lay and if you haven’t there’s no need to make your play right now. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Nothing significant (Confidence that despite my assertion the fave should prove too good)

The first of tonight’s Group 1’s hasn’t been easy to assess. The growing specter around CAPTAIN RAVISHING (2) is difficult to ignore. The fact is, however, he’ll have an awfully tough time holding the crazy fast HEZA SON OF AGUN (5) early and, if he doesn’t, that bloke is three-parts over the line. Most of the spend here relies on HEZA SON OF AGUN (5) saluting though COMMANDER BUZZ (3) is overs, and he will get some love. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Win HEZA SON OF AGUN (5) at $2.20 or better 

$5 Win & $15 Place COMMANDER BUZZ (3) at $16 or better

My method of finding backable winners is largely based on an alpha-level of predictability. In tonight’s feature trot, too many variables confuse the issue. If you’re prepared to back value without necessarily expecting reward, then SUNDONS COURAGE (6) looks partially appetizing but $34 and $6 is probably the tipping point if we’re being 100% honest. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that Majestuoso (3) will find some way to win)

We may miss entirely in tonight’s final feature but at least we’ll have fun doing it. Of every contest tonight, this one bears the most enticing value. Yes, if he replicates his heat success KIMBLE (3) should just lead and win. There will be much greater pressure tonight however, and if that’s the case then DENIS WILLIAM (9) who has proper-horse talent and RICK REILLY (8) who’ll relish tonight’s peg-line journey, are both genuine winning chances at double-figure odds. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$10 Win & $30 Place on RICK REILLY (8) & DENIS WILLIAM (9) at $14 each

Of the four ‘best bets’ outlined on Twitter BETTOR ROBYN (4) is the shortest of them all. As a result, we’re fashioning a funky little Trick rather than backing her straight out. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 2,3,5,7,8/ 2,3,5,7,8: $30 gets 150%