Race 1
Confidence:
There’s little doubt ROSSINI (3) is the leader and likely winner here – and we’re isolating him in two of our three EQ’s - but $1.55 is staggering unders so we’re looking elsewhere. She’ll certainly need the speed on and plenty of fortune but SEW WHAT (11) has been badly underrated by the market (yet again) so something small on her seems the sensible option.
SUGGESTED BET:
$5 Win & $25 Place SEW WHAT (11) at $12 or better
Race 2
Confidence:
Despite rating HOPEFUL BEAUTY (4) on top there’s reasons to risk her here and we’re doing so in dramatic fashion, backing three other runners. QUEEN OF CRIME (7) is flying and if she leads – which is realistically possible – the $6 about her will seem gratuitous. A JEWEL IN THE CROWN (1) has shortened from her opening quote but is still worth an EW wager at double figures and ADELLE (9) simply has too much talent to be at $26 and should be suited by a second row draw.
SUGGESTED BET:
$20 Win QUEEN OF CRIME (7) at $5 or better
$10 Each Way A JEWEL IN THE CROWN (1) at $10 or better
$10 Each Way ADELLE (9) at $16 or better
Race 3
Confidence:
If you’re punting in this fast-class trot please wear a seat belt. And a mouthguard. And a helmet. I will not be joining you.
SUGGESTED BET:
Nothing significant. (Confidence that Nephew Of Sonoko (5) will win)
Race 4
Confidence:
I could definitely make a case for backing FINAL PEACE (3) 1 x 3 here at $17 but, in all honesty, I think MONA MIA (8) is simply better than her rivals right now so $3.40 represents quality value. I’m keen here. I think she wins.
SUGGESTED BET:
$40 Win MONA MIA (8) at $3 or better
Race 5
Confidence:
This whole meeting confuses me, but we go to another level in this Claimer. Plainly put, JILLIBY BANDIT (7) is so good that I’m willing to back him now at $4.40 and cop it sweet if he’s not quite ready. Even though he’s no great overs I’m also driven to playing SOMEBEACHSHADOW (4) on some level as I loved his last start effort and he’s a very good horse when right.
SUGGESTED BET:
$25 Win JILLIBY BANDIT (7) at $3.50 or better
$5 Win & $15 Place SOMEBEACHSHADOW (4) at $21 or better
Race 6
Confidence:
This is a difficult situation. Hopefully folks saw my Tweet earlier this week about MAJOR ROLL (5) being $10 because he’s now $3.90. As a result, I’m only talking to those folks. If you’ve backed nothing then go again with MAJOR ROLL (5) now even if it hurts but if you have the options are to ‘lay’ or back SPELLBOUND (3), BETTOR BE THE BOMB (10) and TORRID SAINT (11) to cover yourself.
SUGGESTED BET:
$50 Win MAJOR ROLL (5) at $3 or better
Race 7
Confidence:
It always concerns me when Andy Gath tips one of his own on Burning Questions, so I’ve thrown EUREKA (4) into Quad calculations, but I did see this as a totally peg-dominated affair so we’re playing just one trick to represent to represent that angle.
SUGGESTED BET:
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,8/ 1,4,6,8: $60 gets 1000%
Race 8
Confidence:
I’m just banking on a hot speed here, because if we get it then VIALLACI (12) is a solid 1 x 3 option at giant odds.
SUGGESTED BET:
$10 Win & $30 Place VILLACI (12) at $14 or better
Early Quaddie
Nothing will come easy tonight, and the EQ also fits that theme. I toyed with playing four combos with Nephew Of Sonoko rated clear of his rivals in leg three but I’m more confident that Rossini and Mona Mia should salute, or at very least one of the two.
3/ 1,4,7,9,13/ 2,4,5,7/ 8: $40 gets 200%
3/ 1,4,7,9,13/ 2,4,5,7/ 1,2,3,4,5,6: $50 gets 50%
7,11/ 1,4,7,9,13/ 2,4,5,7/ 8: $20 gets 50%
CONFIDENCE:
Quaddie
Things can also go quietly awry here, but I’m hoping we’ve played conservatively enough to cover
4,5,7,10/ 3,5/ 2/ 1,8,9,12: $56 gets 175%
4,5,7,10/ 3,5/ 1,4,6,8/ 1,8,9,12: $32 gets 50%
4,5,7,10/ 1,6,10,11/ 2/ 1,8,9,12: $32 gets 50%
CONFIDENCE:
Summary
Win, place, each way
Race 1:
$5 Win & $25 Place SEW WHAT (11) at $12 or better
Race 2:
$20 Win QUEEN OF CRIME (7) at $5 or better
$10 Each Way A JEWEL IN THE CROWN (1) at $10 or better
$10 Each Way ADELLE (9) at $16 or better
Race 4:
$40 Win MONA MIA (8) at $3 or better
Race 5:
$25 Win JILLIBY BANDIT (7) at $3.50 or better
$5 Win & $15 Place SOMEBEACHSHADOW (4) at $21 or better
Race 6:
$50 Win MAJOR ROLL (5) at $3 or better
Race 8:
$10 Win & $30 Place VILLACI (12) at $14 or better
Exotics
Race 7:
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,8/ 1,4,6,8: $60 gets 1000%
Early Quaddie
3/ 1,4,7,9,13/ 2,4,5,7/ 8: $40 gets 200%
3/ 1,4,7,9,13/ 2,4,5,7/ 1,2,3,4,5,6: $50 gets 50%
7,11/ 1,4,7,9,13/ 2,4,5,7/ 8: $20 gets 50%
Quaddie
4,5,7,10/ 3,5/ 2/ 1,8,9,12: $56 gets 175%
4,5,7,10/ 3,5/ 1,4,6,8/ 1,8,9,12: $32 gets 50%
4,5,7,10/ 1,6,10,11/ 2/ 1,8,9,12: $32 gets 50%